on the surface buying in the US looks like a great idea. I'm a big fan of undervalued property but I do wonder why more people aren't doing it - there may be good reason. On a different note, Keen's predictions appear to become more and more detached from reality as time goes on. The fact Keen sold his Sydney home when he did makes things even more ironic.
I'll give you that Keens predictions are getting less and less focused on the australian economy, but from reality? Let's agree to disagree. Him selling his house will only be 'ironic' if he got less than what he paid and there is no price correction.
The hassle with american property is that it's all the way over on the other side of the world so it's purely an investment vehicle (no 'well, if I can't find tenants, I can always live in it' option) You have to start an LLC and then find a property manager that won't scam you. (The real-estate industry is the same everywhere) Tax liability varies from state to state. Luckily for me I have people on the ground to help me. People do it... Lots of australians buy US property (Real money makers then to be a little quieter than spruikers, they're too busy making money)
So, four year later, and prices have surged to new highs and continue to boom.
Are the bears here still willing to wait another 15-20 years for Steve Keen's infamous 40% crash?
Although it's probably more like a 60% crash he needs now to bring prices 40% below 2008 levels.
Usually a sign that its been a bad day for Shadberg PR when you start resurrecting old threads like this one.
Lick wounds clean old boy, tomorrow is another day.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
But tell me, how long are you planning to wait for the 60% crash?
Who said I was waiting for a 60% crash?
I squandered my finances remember ( ipads and lattes mainly) and am a lowly renter that requires subsidies from big men like you.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
So what are you waiting for? When will you buy a home like most of your peers?
When I'm good and ready.
Whats it to you?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Remember On 26th November 2008 Steve Keen had this to say about his bet: " if house prices drop less than 20% peak to trough, I lose, if they fall 40% or more, Rory loses & the loser has to walk from Parliament House to Kosciusko."
Really don't get too stressed by the prop price debate.. Just have a nice yakitori & relax.
If the oz economy is good housing will do ok & if the oz economy is bad, the oz taxpayer is going to support it .
Major long term risks? ....Boomers start to sell heaps of IPs to fund the retirement ....Asian economy turns bad karma in which case shares will be trashed too.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Keen is a fool, always has been, if he thinks it will take that long .
It will hit, then it will last 15-20 years, its been six already overseas and we are about six years being there crash thanks to our 100 year mining boom.
But we are catching up fast now, with our unemployment catching up fast.
But with jobs falling, wages falling and rents falling , it will be sooner rather than later.
Foolish man he is.
But the bulls can keep on denying, just like all the other bulls around the world, who said that prices could not crash......right before they crashed.......who said there was no bubble....right before it popped They all thought this phoney economy was REAL .
I think anybody who thinks there wont be a crash is a gulliable fool unable to see through the bullshit, just like all the bull sheep overseas too. They were unable to see the real direction of the economy of where cheap foreign labour would place them.
So I would not go listening to anything keen says, he is an idiot. But he was able to see the overall direction the economy would head, so he's probably not as stupid as the bulls , who had no idea at all regarding the economy and have talked it up continually when it has been declining on a level not seen before.
So what are you waiting for? When will you buy a home like most of your peers?
When I'm good and ready.
Whats it to you?
More to the question is when will the bulls buy more houses. That's the model isn't it. Just keep buying because house prices Always go up? Looks more like they are waiting for a crash themselves.
I addressed this on another thread, shadow is obsessed with a crash, wants one I think to allow him to get out of the flawed game and start a new life. If we put all the spruke from the early 2000's when shadow made his choices and said 100% is the measure of it all coming true we be at at the 15% mark. House prices have failed to double in the last 7 years, nothing close in fact! Rents stalled years ago, the lies of the bulls aside The economy has turned to shit which indicates the future will not be any better.
Did I miss anything?
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
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