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Will you wait 15-20 years for a crash?; As Steve Keen expects you to do...
Topic Started: 18 Nov 2010, 11:12 AM (8,856 Views)
Catweasel
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Frank Castle
23 Jun 2011, 01:09 PM
Looking at the on line comment in the MSM it is easy to see that the majority of comments are made by the young facebook/twitter generation ie: non property owners
It doesn't take Einstein to figure out that your online polls would be skewed by the same crowd, the results worth about as much as the comment.
Yes Frankie, as the Catweasel say, better to use the research company who do the understand the design methodology of a quant survey. Not so much on a of a subjective the random ranting.
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PuntPal
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Strindberg
23 Jun 2011, 01:07 PM
PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 12:51 PM
Shadow...have you seen the footage when the bet was made? It is clear as day Keen was talking about along time-frame, as housing crashes take years (ask the Yanks).
The bet details are here:
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2008/11/rory-robertson-vs-steve-keen.html

The starting date was 2nd quarter of 2008.
The bet was to run for 5 years - not 15 years.

If prices fell 40% then Rory would walk.
If prices fell less than 20% then Steve would walk.

So Steve was betting on at least a 20% fall within 5 years of 2/2008, to avoid having to walk himself, and at least a 40% fall withiin 5 years of 2/2008 to make Rory walk. 5 years - not 15 years.

But they agreed that the bet was peak to trough so once the previous peak had been exceeded it was the end of the bet. So Rory won.

Frank - time to show Steve wearing his T-shirt.
Do you understand the concept of a martyrdom....dont think Keen didnt see all of this coming....even the stupid intervention that you idiots believe proved him wrong.

He has set him up for the biggest I TOLD YOU SO...in the history of this nation. We will be telling our children about the man that showed everyone how economics actually works in real life and had the courage to take on a nation full of ignorant speculators and the powerful property cartel.



"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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Strindberg
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PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 02:28 PM
....... you idiots.......


http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/8808762/
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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PuntPal
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Strindberg
23 Jun 2011, 02:32 PM
PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 02:28 PM
....... you idiots.......


http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/8808762/
You are idiots...you brag abotu capital gains on your houses!!!

You brag about the system being rigged to make young people rent forever and pay off your investments.

I came on this forum and made a very legitimate point about cohabitation taking place in Australia and how this would show the shortage isnt there.

Frank Castle decided to come on and mock me and belittle me. So since then I have no respect for him.

You and Shadow have both engaged in deceitful tactics...such as posting old graphs or graphs that are clearly misleading. The other day Shadow totally lied about a set of data and the way I analysed it.

So be thankful I dont call you worse than idiots...you guys are dangerous wankers that are contributing to a massive economic and social calamity for my nation.

If people get offended by a few swear words, then I am sorry - but the seriousness of the issue and the petty and deceitful tactics used by some bulls around here warrant a bit of aggresive criticism.

To me, manipulating data to trick people and suit your own person financial interests is far worse than calling someone an idiot.

"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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Black Panther
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PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 02:43 PM
You are idiots...you brag abotu capital gains on your houses!!!

You brag about the system being rigged to make young people rent forever and pay off your investments.

I came on this forum and made a very legitimate point about cohabitation taking place in Australia and how this would show the shortage isnt there.

Frank Castle decided to come on and mock me and belittle me. So since then I have no respect for him.

You and Shadow have both engaged in deceitful tactics...such as posting old graphs or graphs that are clearly misleading. The other day Shadow totally lied about a set of data and the way I analysed it.

So be thankful I dont call you worse than idiots...you guys are dangerous wankers that are contributing to a massive economic and social calamity for my nation.

If people get offended by a few swear words, then I am sorry - but the seriousness of the issue and the petty and deceitful tactics used by some bulls around here warrant a bit of aggresive criticism.

To me, manipulating data to trick people and suit your own person financial interests is far worse than calling someone an idiot.

Punt pal.

Its a rigged game. The sooner you realize this the better off you will be.

Many will be locked out of the market permanently when the imminent new up cycle starts.

My advice is to buy what you can afford RIGHT NOW.

Don't blame others for playing the game. They didn't start it.

And don't cry once the market has left you behind when you could buy now.
Edited by Black Panther, 23 Jun 2011, 02:54 PM.
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PuntPal
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Black Panther
23 Jun 2011, 02:51 PM
PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 02:43 PM
You are idiots...you brag abotu capital gains on your houses!!!

You brag about the system being rigged to make young people rent forever and pay off your investments.

I came on this forum and made a very legitimate point about cohabitation taking place in Australia and how this would show the shortage isnt there.

Frank Castle decided to come on and mock me and belittle me. So since then I have no respect for him.

You and Shadow have both engaged in deceitful tactics...such as posting old graphs or graphs that are clearly misleading. The other day Shadow totally lied about a set of data and the way I analysed it.

So be thankful I dont call you worse than idiots...you guys are dangerous wankers that are contributing to a massive economic and social calamity for my nation.

If people get offended by a few swear words, then I am sorry - but the seriousness of the issue and the petty and deceitful tactics used by some bulls around here warrant a bit of aggresive criticism.

To me, manipulating data to trick people and suit your own person financial interests is far worse than calling someone an idiot.

Punt pal.

Its a rigged game. The sooner you realize this the better off you will be.

Many will be locked out of the market permanently when the imminent new up cycle starts.

My advice is to buy what you can afford RIGHT NOW.

Don't blame others for playing the game. They didn't start it.

And don't cry once the market has left you behind when you could be now.
The market was rigged in the US too...but you can trick Mr Market for a while, but in the end...bad investments get revealed as such and people get burnt.

As I have exaplined to you, there is no risk for me in waiting. There is a massive risk in me entering the market now.

So I shall wait, save and rent in a far better place than I can afford to buy. Might even sneak an overseas trip in as well.

Whereas my mates that didnt want to miss out and bought at the peak have either vanished off the face of earth due to having no money to live off or have split up with their partners due to the stress (and boredom) of owning a home with a massive mortgage.

Thanks for the advice though :dry:
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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danna
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i think it quite obvious that Steven Keen lost the bet.

He made a bet, not anticipating that the Federal Government would increase the FHB grant. That's why it was silly of him to enter the bet in the first place. Even if his theory was 100% correct for the circumstances the Australian Housing Market found itself in at that time, he basically bet on all things staying the same. A silly bet to make in anyone's book.

It doesn't really rule out his theory though. In fact, his theory can accommodate what has happened since (his theory on debt acceleration accounts for this). It's easy to make up a theory that fits a certain set of statistics, but only viable theories stand up once other stats are thrown at them.

My problem is that Keen looks at the credit impulse or the credit accelerator as a first cause (i.e. - increased credit caused increased house prices) but doesn't consider the fact that the 'credit accelerator' might not / is probably not a first cause (i.e. - it is caused by something else).

In regards to waiting, it's not so much waiting for me. If i put a book on my credit card, it's because I am prepared to pay more for it to have it now than when I can afford it. That means I am giving up a number of other things to have this book. If i had waited I could have had the book and the can of coke. The same goes for housing - by buying a house I can't do other things i want to do - things that I want to do while I am young. I play in a band. I can not tour the world when I am 65 so I will tour the world now.

You might think I'm crazy but I'm spending money on the things that, if you plot them on a timeline, are more important to do now rather than later. I have a rad super scheme and with my contributions and employer contributions I am getting over 23%. I am going to open up a GOvernment first home buyer saver account - not because i necessarily want to buy a house (if house prices fall great if not meh) but they will be giving me gauranteed free contributions. With the housing market flatlining at the moment it just reinforces my decision. I am not worried about retirement - if I can't live off my super when i earn above average and have above average super then the whole system will be fucked and i will have far bigger things to worry about. At the moment I'm looking at super which is a diversified investment, vesus rolling the dice with my eggs all in one basket (haha nice mixed metaphor there) and it's a no brainer for me.

Yeah sure, a house would be nice, but it's not necessary for my financial security and it's not necessary for the way of life I want.

so waiting? not really. if the decision becomes too good to pass up, sure I'll jump on it, but i'm not waiting.
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Strindberg
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danna
23 Jun 2011, 03:00 PM
i think it quite obvious that Steven Keen lost the bet.

He made a bet, not anticipating that the Federal Government would increase the FHB grant.
Steve Keen made his bet AFTER the FHB BOOST was announced. He then stupidly blamed the FHB boost for him losing the bet. He could not blame the RBA cuts for losing him the bet. He predicted they would cut to zero.
Edited by Strindberg, 23 Jun 2011, 03:19 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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danna
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to be fair strinberg,

in my understanding, the bet was made 26th November 2008, and the First home owners boost was introduced on 14 October 2008. (clarification needed please)

Given that Keen insists that there is a lag time between the government intervention and the credit impluse, and then between the credit impulse and housing prices that would seem to account for him not anticipating the credit impulse correctly.

I do think it a leap of faith to assume that the increase in the First home owner boost was the reason the credit impulse turned positive again, but can you deny completely the link (not causation but link) between what has been identified as the credit impulse / credit accelerator and house prices?
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PuntPal
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danna
23 Jun 2011, 03:38 PM
to be fair strinberg,

in my understanding, the bet was made 26th November 2008, and the First home owners boost was introduced on 14 October 2008. (clarification needed please)

Given that Keen insists that there is a lag time between the government intervention and the credit impluse, and then between the credit impulse and housing prices that would seem to account for him not anticipating the credit impulse correctly.

I do think it a leap of faith to assume that the increase in the First home owner boost was the reason the credit impulse turned positive again, but can you deny completely the link (not causation but link) between what has been identified as the credit impulse / credit accelerator and house prices?
If house prices crash over the next 5 years...do you think it matters one iota whether Rory Robertson beat Keen in a silly bet??

You bulls cling to that stupid bet not realising Keen did it to raise publicity and to make sure everyone knows what his opinion is.

He is holding to his opinion because he knows that all geniuses are vindicated over time...Gallileo, Darwin etc...(all were laughed at by their peers).

"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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