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Will you wait 15-20 years for a crash as Steve Keen expects you to do?
Yes, I will wait 15-20 years before buying. 10 (28.6%)
No, I can't wait that long. I will buy even if prices haven't crashed. 7 (20%)
Keen is wrong. Prices will crash by 50% sooner than Keen expects. 7 (20%)
Keen is wrong. Prices won't ever crash by 50% 11 (31.4%)
Total Votes: 35
Will you wait 15-20 years for a crash?; As Steve Keen expects you to do...
Topic Started: 18 Nov 2010, 11:12 AM (8,845 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

A question for the bears.

Earlier this year Steve Keen revised his crash prediction.

He now claims that the 40% crash was originally supposed to be over a 15 year timeframe, rather than 'a few' years.

He also says the government delayed the crash with its 'unexpected' stimulus, so let's say 15-20 years including that delay.

And since prices have risen substantially since he made the original prediction, we're probably looking at a 50%+ crash rather than 40%.

So, who is willing to wait 20 years for property prices to crash 50%.

Do you have the patience to follow Steve Keen's instructions.

After all, Keen says there is no point paying a mortgage on a property that is going to fall in value.

Are you happy to delay buying for another 20 years?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Mar 2011, 02:12 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ben D
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Shadow
18 Nov 2010, 11:12 AM
A question for the bears.

Earlier this year Steve Keen revised his crash prediction.

He now claims that the 40% crash was originally supposed to be over a 15 year timeframe, rather than 'a few' years.

He also says the government delayed the crash with its 'unexpected' stimulus, so let's say 15-20 years including that delay.

And since prices have risen substantially since he made the original prediction, we're probably looking at a 50%+ crash rather than 40%.

So, who is willing to wait 20 years for property prices to crash 50%.

Do you have the patience to follow Steve Keen's instructions.

After all, Keen says there is no point paying a mortgage on a property that is going to fall in value.

Are you happy to delay buying for another 20 years?
Why wouldn't you wait until buying was better value? What's the rush?
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Mc_Gusto
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mcgusto

Classic poll shadow. You da man.
Silence of the BULLS

HA HA
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Mc_Gusto
18 Nov 2010, 12:41 PM
Classic poll shadow. You da man.
Let's try it again. We have a few forum members adulating Steve Keen's predictions at present, claiming that his time has come etc.

Keen's revised prediction is that it will take another 20 years (approx) for house prices to fall by his expected 55% (approx).

How many bears are willing to wait that long before buying?
Edited by Shadow, 23 Jun 2011, 12:22 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Black Panther
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The difference between being young and considered not young in Australia is not what
most people imagine.

In fact it is about 15 years. Once your 40+, whether you like it or not, people do not consider you young anymore.

So all these juveniles on this forum who think they have plenty of time to wait are wrong.

In fact, I would suggest the longer you wait will in all likelihood correlate with a low IQ.

The longer you wait, the dumber you are.

Waiting 15 years is pure and simple, financial suicide.
Edited by Black Panther, 23 Jun 2011, 03:04 PM.
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PuntPal
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Black Panther
23 Jun 2011, 12:38 PM
The difference between being young and considered not young in Australia is not what
most people imagine.

In fact its is about 15 years. Once your 40+, whether you like it or not, people do not consider you young anymore.

So all these juveniles on this forum who think they have plenty of time to wait are wrong.

In fact, I would suggest the longer you wait will in all likelihood correlate with a low IQ.

The longer you wait, the dumber you are.

Waiting 15 years is pure and simple, financial suicide.
Shadow...have you seen the footage when the bet was made? It is clear as day Keen was talking about along time-frame, as housing crashes take years (ask the Yanks).

If house prices do fall slowly for the next 15 years, then yes...I will rent until I feel comfortable with the level of debt I need to take on to become an OO. All the while saving at very generous interest rates (which are being further boosted by the Government).

Your buy now or miss out mantra does not work in a deflating market.

TIME IS ON OUR SIDE NOW

:thumbsup:
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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Catweasel
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Catweasel laugh. Even better the poll: Ask a Irish and a Kiwi and a America the Japan man how the long the crash last compare to its expectation.

Or even better the poll: Ask the Australia mouse if the bubble exist or not and the reason why. This actually the very easy the poll to execute by a online survery for the Nielsen, Roy the Morgan, or a Millward Brown.
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Strindberg
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PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 12:51 PM
Shadow...have you seen the footage when the bet was made? It is clear as day Keen was talking about along time-frame, as housing crashes take years (ask the Yanks).
The bet details are here:
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2008/11/rory-robertson-vs-steve-keen.html

The starting date was 2nd quarter of 2008.
The bet was to run for 5 years - not 15 years.

If prices fell 40% then Rory would walk.
If prices fell less than 20% then Steve would walk.

So Steve was betting on at least a 20% fall within 5 years of 2/2008, to avoid having to walk himself, and at least a 40% fall withiin 5 years of 2/2008 to make Rory walk. 5 years - not 15 years.

But they agreed that the bet was peak to trough so once the previous peak had been exceeded it was the end of the bet. So Rory won.

Frank - time to show Steve wearing his T-shirt.
Edited by Strindberg, 23 Jun 2011, 01:10 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Catweasel
23 Jun 2011, 12:54 PM


Or even better the poll: Ask the Australia mouse if the bubble exist or not and the reason why. This actually the very easy the poll to execute by a online survery for the Nielsen, Roy the Morgan, or a Millward Brown.
Looking at the on line comment in the MSM it is easy to see that the majority of comments are made by the young facebook/twitter generation ie: non property owners
It doesn't take Einstein to figure out that your online polls would be skewed by the same crowd, the results worth about as much as the comment.
Edited by Frank Castle, 23 Jun 2011, 01:09 PM.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Frank Castle
Member Avatar
Business As Usual

PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 12:51 PM
Shadow...have you seen the footage when the bet was made? It is clear as day Keen was talking ..............................
FANBOY ALERT

Posted Image
Edited by Frank Castle, 23 Jun 2011, 01:17 PM.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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