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Latest RBA Financial Aggregates
Topic Started: 2 Nov 2010, 01:12 PM (6,920 Views)
earthsta
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Shadow
31 Aug 2011, 01:13 PM




Investors deserting the sinking ship
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Strindberg
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Shadow
31 Aug 2011, 01:13 PM
People talk a lot about the first derivative (rate of change - as in Shadow's chart)) and the second derivative (rate of change of the rate of change) when discussing time series.

Sometimes it helps just to see a picture of the actual variable itself. Here's a picture below of housing credit over time. I just nicked it from macrobusiness where it's upset 'em a bit 'cus it spoils the gloom. Cameron has tried to restore the gloom by suggesting that they should be looking at the second derivative - or anything which presents the figures in the worse light.

Posted Image

..up up and up.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Strindberg
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earthsta
31 Aug 2011, 02:49 PM




Investors deserting the sinking ship
No. Just like OO credit, investor credit just keeps on growing - over 5% over the last year - faster than inflation.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Latest figures... http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/fin-agg/2011/fin-agg-0911.html

Posted Image

Seems to be a bit of a pick up in credit growth over the past few months.

YOY owner-occupied housing credit growth accelerated slightly in September.

Total housing credit rose 0.5% in the month of September.

YOY business credit growth finally turns positive.
Edited by Shadow, 31 Oct 2011, 12:11 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Catweasel
5 Nov 2010, 03:40 PM
Nobody here seems to understand how to read time-series data. The overall trend for both OO and Investor is both down. Furthermore, the Total Credit growth trend is especially alarming, about 80% down from peak to now, after a period of stable growth. This is what's important. That is what all you mice should be looking at.
I haven't posted an update of this chart for a while. I used to post it each month, back when Catweasel could write like a normal person.

Anyway, here is the latest financial aggregates data from the RBA.

The rate of housing credit growth (investor and owner occupier) is picking up again...

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/financial-aggregates.html

Posted Image

(it's interesting to read back through this thread to see what was going here three years ago)
Edited by Shadow, 1 Oct 2013, 09:16 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Property fails to buoy private sector credit

September 30, 2013 - 12:07PM
Glenda Kwek

Credit growth in the private sector has remained subdued in August, despite expectations that a busy property market would fuel increased borrowing.

Private sector credit rose by 0.3 per cent in August, softer than the 0.4 per cent growth in June and July, Reserve Bank figures released today show.

Credit was up 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to August.

Economists had predicted a 0.4 per cent rise last month and a 3.5 per cent jump in the year to August.

Housing credit also grew modestly at 0.4 per cent last month, the same level of growth since January, taking the increase over the past 12 months to 4.7 per cent - the strongest lift since last September.

Housing credit has been in focus amid talk of a bubble in the housing market, with a sharp rise in borrowing see as one of the key factors in fuelling a possible housing price bubble.

But while housing prices have been rising rapidly in recent months, credit growth is still considered low compared to its historic levels.

Personal credit edged higher by 0.2 per cent, up from an unchanged level in July. The 12-month percentage growth in personal credit was the highest since May 2011.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/property-fails-to-buoy-private-sector-credit-20130930-2unjx.html
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