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Latest RBA Financial Aggregates
Topic Started: 2 Nov 2010, 01:12 PM (6,924 Views)
Catweasel
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apex
22 Jun 2011, 08:18 PM
Eek! It's like seeing Kiss without their makeup. How disappointing..........
Catweasel laugh. Have a no memory of doing the write. Maybe Mrs the Catweasel do (when she not busy at the place of work). Any the way, it not have a time nor the inclination to do the sparring with zealot or the anyone for that matter. It's not the interest to do so. More is the the point out weakness or the limitation.

In this the case, we have a graph of the time-series data representation. Very the nice. But please do the understand that a time-series not a prove anything; just a show historical macro view. If look at a data with t-test, can understand a statistical difference in change over a time and change between a different variable. Nothing the more; nothing the less. Can identify the certain events such as GFC as possible cause, but not the science, just the observation. Quite the understandable but largely a meaningless in context of what it a know now (even though it seem the zealot will do the argue to the contrary if a possible).

Graph representation largely useless to make a understanding of future. If think it can do, it either in the delusion or mad as batshit.
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Why the uptick on the M3?
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Catweasel
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pauk
23 Jun 2011, 09:46 AM
Why the uptick on the M3?
Why? Does it have the meaning? If it have the meaning, you not a know by looking at this the graph. Must dive much the deeper than that.
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Strindberg
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pauk
23 Jun 2011, 09:46 AM
Why the uptick on the M3?
The Labor government deficit spending has ended up as savings in private sector bank accounts and has boosted M3. There is no where else for it to go. When people spend the money they get from the government it just moves to some else's bank account.
M3 is growing at around 10% pa.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Catweasel
23 Jun 2011, 09:52 AM
Why? Does it have the meaning? If it have the meaning, you not a know by looking at this the graph. Must dive much the deeper than that.
Yes, so what is a possible deeper meaning? Why the upswing? Savings up/down?
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Sherlock
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Catweasel
5 Nov 2010, 03:40 PM
Nobody here seems to understand how to read time-series data. The overall trend for both OO and Investor is both down. Furthermore, the Total Credit growth trend is especially alarming, about 80% down from peak to now, after a period of stable growth. This is what's important.
Why won't you teach us, oh wise one!!
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Sherlock
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Catweasel
23 Jun 2011, 06:55 AM
we have a graph of the time-series data representation
Did your wife, write this sentence, also??
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PuntPal
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Shadow
22 Jun 2011, 10:52 PM
PuntPal
22 Jun 2011, 10:11 PM
Keen called the GFC in 2005. And he didnt just say it would be a recession and leave it at that.

He predicted everything down to a tee and also provided a whole economic theory to explain it to people.
Yep, he predicted everything down to a tee. Incorrectly.

ZIRP? Didn't happen.
Severe recession? Didn't happen.
Double digit unemployment? Didn't happen.
40% house price crash? Didn't happen.

To make it worse, Keen sold his home just before the new boom, and he is on the record as saying his biggest regret in life is that he didn't participate in the previous boom. So now he's missed two property booms in a row. Dreadful timing. But I'm sure he saw it all coming and predicted it down to a tee.
The Melbourne Institute has released a report showing Asustralians feel more worried now than they did during the height of the GFC...

So Keen's time is now.

The stimulus was like pouring gas on a fire...it might fool some idiots into thinking the fire will burn and keep them warm, but when the gas runs out you get cold.

Its getting pretty damn cold across the nation right now.
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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PuntPal
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Shadow
22 Jun 2011, 10:44 PM
PuntPal
22 Jun 2011, 10:04 PM
Shadow...WHAT!!!

I used those (MADE UP!) numbers to illustrate a point that you guys seemed unable to grasp...THE RATE OF GROWTH IS FALLING RAPIDLY
The point I was making is that housing credit growth did in fact fall, from 15% several years ago, to the current level around 8%. During that period house prices generally rose. Sure, there was a small fall of a few percent in 2008, but that was insignificant compared to the gains over that period. House prices today are substantially higher than they were when credit growth started trending down.
No you are now changing your argument coz you got caught out....as I have explained, when credit growth slows...house prices fall.

Credit growth is at historic lows.

You can work out the rest :bye:
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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Shadow
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PuntPal
23 Jun 2011, 10:08 AM
No you are now changing your argument coz you got caught out....as I have explained, when credit growth slows...house prices fall.
Housing credit growth did slow, from 15% several years ago, to the current level around 6%. During that time, house prices generally rose. House prices today are higher than they were when credit growth started slowing.
Edited by Shadow, 23 Jun 2011, 10:45 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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