Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 9
Latest RBA Financial Aggregates
Topic Started: 2 Nov 2010, 01:12 PM (6,928 Views)
Catweasel
Member Avatar


landbank
6 Nov 2010, 06:46 AM
Catweasel
5 Nov 2010, 03:40 PM
Nobody here seems to understand how to read time-series data. The overall trend for both OO and Investor is both down. Furthermore, the Total Credit growth trend is especially alarming, about 80% down from peak to now, after a period of stable growth. This is what's important. That is what all you mice should be looking at.
yet up more recently from a trough, yes???

you are cherry picking dates to find the trend which suits you most!!!
Mice don't understand purpose of time-series data and how to correctly analyze trends. Mouse don't understand significance of movement between two short points. Mouse should look at trends at points furthest away to get understanding of trends. Mouse should also explain movements to make narrative or hypothesis. Mouse has to make reasonable explanation with evidence to explain trend. But mouse won't educate himself, so no chance for mouse to become more skilled at reading data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Latest chart... on an annualised basis, business credit growth rate is still negative, investor housing credit growth rate is flat, and OO housing credit growth rate is down slightly...

Note that credit is only falling if the line falls below the x-axis. A downward slope, above the x-axis, still indicates positive growth.

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 3 Dec 2010, 09:07 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
whale
Default APF Avatar

Any idea where that M3 growth may come from ? Certainly not the OO or Investors credit growth; some other mysterious reason ? It's a pity the graph doesn't include the RBA base money M(B) variable ?

In theory M3 could grow independent of housing credit growth by means of Gov Bonds bought directly or indirectly by the RBA - but I suspect the RBA base money doesn't grow as strong as M3.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Catweasel
Member Avatar


Shadow
3 Dec 2010, 09:04 AM
Latest chart... on an annualised basis, business credit growth rate is still negative, investor housing credit growth rate is flat, and OO housing credit growth rate is down slightly...

Note that credit is only falling if the line falls below the x-axis. A downward slope, above the x-axis, still indicates positive growth.

Posted Image
Catweasel say the big meaningless. Not a how a read data. No the education or analysis experience so cannot do. Big a the problem Australia education. Nobody a learn properly. Only the do at a post-grad or maybe the company. Client demand professional.

Basic the commentary is a credit growth off cliff because a GFC. No a the evidence that credit growth return to a pre-GFC level. Even if have the t-stat, don't prove a anything.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
barns
Member Avatar


Catweasel - you are a strange man-feline-rodent hybrid (no disrespect).

From the graph, even after the GFC credit is still growing, just at a slower rate - which is probably a good thing because peope, and in particular business, were using too much credit to over-pay for assets.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Catweasel
Member Avatar


barns
3 Dec 2010, 02:28 PM
Catweasel - you are a strange man-feline-rodent hybrid (no disrespect).

From the graph, even after the GFC credit is still growing, just at a slower rate - which is probably a good thing because peope, and in particular business, were using too much credit to over-pay for assets.
Catweasel say miss a point. Yes a credit growth fall off a cliff. That a only point. Not recover. Only the thing can see. if the want to do a directional analysis. Look at a absolute difference between a peak and current data.

Why you a say that "probably a good ting"? Cannot say in business world. No the meaning. Need a proof or statistical significance to back a comment. Cannot say just a hunch in the real. Have the hypothesis. Need to do a prove.
Edited by Catweasel, 3 Dec 2010, 02:34 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Latest data...

Posted Image
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
AK4
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
1 Feb 2011, 04:24 PM
Latest data...

Posted Image
Housing credit growth seems to be decelerating in line with house prices. It's interesting that investor housing credit seems to be tracking the movements in house prices.

Being national data though, it is slightly limited in its application.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Pre GFC most aggregates seem to track pretty much together.
Now well M3 and broad money seem to have a life of their own and the closeness between the relationships of each of the aggregates is no longer predictable.

The rate of growth has certainly declined post GFC, however the differences and individual trends are now very different. why?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ray White
Default APF Avatar
Gold Member
pauk
3 Feb 2011, 01:46 PM
Pre GFC most aggregates seem to track pretty much together.
Now well M3 and broad money seem to have a life of their own and the closeness between the relationships of each of the aggregates is no longer predictable.

The rate of growth has certainly declined post GFC, however the differences and individual trends are now very different. why?
M3 annual rate of growth has risen for each of the last 6 months and is now 9.6%.

Strindberg showed a strong correlation between M3 and house prices:

http://s4.zetaboards.com/Australian_Property/single/?p=8075777&t=8195174

Edited by Ray White, 3 Feb 2011, 02:23 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 9



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy