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Over 25,750 properties for sale in Perth. How much could prices fall?; 25,764 as at 11-12-2017
Topic Started: 12 Dec 2017, 02:27 AM (40,474 Views)
hidflect
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If housing prices really are recovering as the bulls claim then we should see a declining supply to reflect that.
Let's benchmark the number at a round 25,750 and see where we are in 6 months.

REIWA claims the medium price is now $510,000.
25,764 properties at an average of $510,000 = $13,139,640,000 that needs to get spent.

https://reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro/

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Rufus
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hidflect
12 Dec 2017, 02:27 AM
If housing prices really are recovering as the bulls claim then we should see a declining supply to reflect that.
Let's benchmark the number at a round 25,750 and see where we are in 6 months.

REIWA claims the medium price is now $510,000.
25,764 properties at an average of $510,000 = $13,139,640,000 that needs to get spent.

https://reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro/

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That calculation includes vacant land as well as properties listed with more than one agent.

If you take out land it falls to 21,575. I don't know what you should allow for dual listed properties.

But I guess if you wanted a Jimbo type index you could use the greater Perth figure less land which is 21,575 today. Remember there are seasonal variations.
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Jimbo
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Rufus
12 Dec 2017, 07:14 AM
But I guess if you wanted a Jimbo type index you could use the greater Perth figure less land which is 21,575 today. Remember there are seasonal variations.
I've been running this one since August 2014. It cuts out land, properties already sold and under offer.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements

Currently sits at 17,995 but has been up just over 20,000.

This week in 2014 it was 12,936.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rufus
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Jimbo
12 Dec 2017, 07:49 AM
I've been running this one since August 2014. It cuts out land, properties already sold and under offer.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements

Currently sits at 17,995 but has been up just over 20,000.

This week in 2014 it was 12,936.
Yep that's probably a better measure.

Perthites appear to be getting a little paranoid. Vacancies are going to fall as will stock on market.
This all feels like a denial of that trend.
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newjez
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Rufus
12 Dec 2017, 08:28 AM
Yep that's probably a better measure.

Perthites appear to be getting a little paranoid. Vacancies are going to fall as will stock on market.
This all feels like a denial of that trend.
Stock on market could rise as the market recovers. Lots of frustrated sellers out there.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Rufus
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newjez
12 Dec 2017, 08:42 AM
Stock on market could rise as the market recovers. Lots of frustrated sellers out there.
The recovery will be slow, so I hope they are patient.
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Blondie girl
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s l o oooooooooooooo w l y
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Rufus
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Jimbo
12 Dec 2017, 07:49 AM
I've been running this one since August 2014. It cuts out land, properties already sold and under offer.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements

Currently sits at 17,995 but has been up just over 20,000.

This week in 2014 it was 12,936.
Now 17,859
https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&persistIncludeSurrounding=true&misc=ex-under-contract&source=location-search

Wow that's a fall of 76 in just one day.
Edited by Rufus, 13 Dec 2017, 08:47 PM.
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Jimbo
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Rufus
13 Dec 2017, 08:47 PM
Now 17,859
Wow that's a fall of 76 in just one day.
That's what happens at this time of year. People get their houses ready for the spring market and list them around November time. Listings then begin to fall with a big drop around Christmas as people de-list. It's happened every year since I've been following it. Peak listings is late November/early December.

One thing that isn't dropping is the unemployment rate with trend up to 6.2% from 6.1% and seasonally adjusted up to 6.6% from 6%.

What happened to this "recovery" that I couldn't see because my head was stuck firmly in the sand?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rufus
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Jimbo
14 Dec 2017, 04:40 PM
That's what happens at this time of year. People get their houses ready for the spring market and list them around November time. Listings then begin to fall with a big drop around Christmas as people de-list. It's happened every year since I've been following it. Peak listings is late November/early December.

One thing that isn't dropping is the unemployment rate with trend up to 6.2% from 6.1% and seasonally adjusted up to 6.6% from 6%.

What happened to this "recovery" that I couldn't see because my head was stuck firmly in the sand?
Read this - http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/christmas-cheer-for-rba.html

Quote:
 
Western Australia saw a solid +35,000 increase in employment over the year, though the state's unemployment rate increased on a higher participation rate.


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