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Sydney in for x% decline from peak ?; Let the fun begin
Topic Started: 6 Dec 2017, 11:39 AM (4,366 Views)
Gossamer
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44th most prolific poster on APF

I thought I'd stir the pot with this one. Standing back and ready for the shit to fly.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

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Nelson
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herbie
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Gossamer
6 Dec 2017, 11:39 AM
I thought I'd stir the pot with this one. Standing back and ready for the shit to fly.
5% pretty much a given.

10% probable.

But if it even begins to look like being 15%, we'll see so much stimulus thrown at it, it'll make bears' eyes water. (And NOT from tears of mirth! - LOL)
Edited by herbie, 6 Dec 2017, 12:00 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Ex BP Golly
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Could it drop back to even as high as 8x average Sydney annual income (individual- not family)?



WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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herbie
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Ex BP Golly
6 Dec 2017, 12:30 PM
Could it drop back to even as high as 8x average Sydney annual income (individual- not family)?

But 'we' work as families Golly - Not as individuals ... No?

Hmmm - Leastways lots of migrants do - And that's what any local born Aussies who don't (and the occasional specufesting Yank migrant! - LOL) are competing against ... Even if they don't like it - IMO.
Edited by herbie, 6 Dec 2017, 12:53 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Ex BP Golly
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herbie
6 Dec 2017, 12:33 PM
But 'we' work as families Golly - Not as individuals ... No?

Hmmm - Leastways lots of migrants do - And that's what any local born Aussies who don't (and the occasional specufesting Yank migrant! - LOL) are competing against ... Even if they don't like it - IMO.
Okay, could it drop to 7x Sydney family income?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Swine
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Gossamer
6 Dec 2017, 11:39 AM
I thought I'd stir the pot with this one. Standing back and ready for the shit to fly.
i love all the EVIDENCE youve got here maate.

its the most liveable city in the word.

a shittonne of work.

great beaches and weather.

get with the program. smarten up, the upwards thrust of the Sydney property is going nowhere. at most, maybe a 1-2% drop if ya lucky

Cheers



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hidflect
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Swine
6 Dec 2017, 01:26 PM
i love all the EVIDENCE youve got here maate.

its the most liveable city in the word.

a shittonne of work.

great beaches and weather.

get with the program. smarten up, the upwards thrust of the Sydney property is going nowhere. at most, maybe a 1-2% drop if ya lucky

Cheers


Oh my. Let me frame this one so I can cherish it in the years to come. Whenever I'm sad, all I'll need do is gaze upon its quote and be transported to merriment.

15% decline by end of 2018. I don't even think Turnball ramming open the spigot on immigration could stop it. Incomers still have to be the kind of people who can afford a $Million mortgage and still want to go there despite the overcrowding and declining market. And then in numbers great enough to overcome the fleeing hordes of Chinese investors.
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Matthew
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hidflect
6 Dec 2017, 01:42 PM
15% decline by end of 2018.
Oh my. Let me frame this one so I can cherish it in the years to come. Whenever I'm sad, all I'll need do is gaze upon its quote and be transported to merriment.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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DragonGM
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hidflect
6 Dec 2017, 01:42 PM
15% decline by end of 2018.
15% decline would be good if we could make it stop there. However, declines are funny beasts. Once they get momentum, you can't just flick a switch and make it stop.
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sizzler
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I think it will vary by area significantly. Some of the western parts of Sydney could go down by 30 to 40%. More desirable pockets I think closer to 10-15%.
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