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Sydney house prices drop two percent last quarter, inner city prices slump; You’d have to be blind and drunk to not see a fall in prices coming
Topic Started: 12 Oct 2017, 06:07 AM (2,344 Views)
yankinoz
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/inner-city-sydney-property-prices-slump-20171011-gyz4c3.html
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yankinoz
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https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-drop-2-per-cent-over-the-september-quarter-domain-group-20171012-gyxlh7/
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Tick Tock
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Sunrise this morning were talking about this and Koshie was talking to some guy in Sydney who basically said the boom is over and prices are flatlining/correcting.

Thank f*** for that!!! :tu:
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Rufus
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Tick Tock
12 Oct 2017, 09:36 AM
Sunrise this morning were talking about this and Koshie was talking to some guy in Sydney who basically said the boom is over and prices are flatlining/correcting.

Thank f*** for that!!! :tu:
Yep the heat is out of the Sydney market, but there is still life in it due to the stamp duty reductions.
Much the same for Melbourne.

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herbie
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Rufus
12 Oct 2017, 01:00 PM
Yep the heat is out of the Sydney market, but there is still life in it due to the stamp duty reductions.
Much the same for Melbourne.
Don't particularly follow either Sydney or Melbs ... But I'd just sort of been getting the general impression there could still be another 10, 15 or even 20% (?) uptick left in Melbs yet?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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b_b
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Rufus
12 Oct 2017, 01:00 PM
Yep the heat is out of the Sydney market, but there is still life in it due to the stamp duty reductions.
Much the same for Melbourne.

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Feels like it’s over. The only question is the severity of the downturn.
This was never normal...
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Rufus
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b_b
12 Oct 2017, 02:03 PM
Feels like it’s over. The only question is the severity of the downturn.
This was never normal...
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Except that we have over 300,000 people coming to Australia annually, mostly moving to Sydney and Melbourne plus some to Brisbane and SEQ, and in Melbourne and Sydney 25% of new homes/apartments are being bought by non-residents, so in Sydney and Melbourne there is no major stock overhang, but there is in Brisbane.

So what are the possibilities:-

1. People will stop coming here?
2. The number coming will reduce?
3. The number coming will increase?
4. People will move to Brisbane and Perth to buy cheaper property?
5. The government will do something - but what would they do?
6. Prices will go to the moon as more come here.
7. Prices will crash as they all pack up and move to where?

Clearly the current trend will change, but when and in what way?
Perhaps we should consult an astrologer, because the above is all about a new human migration phase, and the economic effect is just a second play.
I don't think anyone can answer the questions based on data, it would have to be a guess.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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b_b
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Rufus
12 Oct 2017, 02:28 PM
Except that we have over 300,000 people coming to Australia annually, mostly moving to Sydney and Melbourne plus some to Brisbane and SEQ, and in Melbourne and Sydney 25% of new homes/apartments are being bought by non-residents, so in Sydney and Melbourne there is no major stock overhang, but there is in Brisbane.

So what are the possibilities:-

1. People will stop coming here?
2. The number coming will reduce?
3. The number coming will increase?
4. People will move to Brisbane and Perth to buy cheaper property?
5. The government will do something - but what would they do?
6. Prices will go to the moon as more come here.
7. Prices will crash as they all pack up and move to where?

Clearly the current trend will change, but when and in what way?
Perhaps we should consult an astrologer, because the above is all about a new human migration phase, and the economic effect is just a second play.
I don't think anyone can answer the questions based on data, it would have to be a guess.
We (Sydney) have always had population growth. And yes, it has picked up over the past few years but nothing too out of the ordinary - especially when compared to the pre GFC period when Sydney dwelling supply was 1/3rd of what it is today.
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So long as prices exceed cost, the development equation will mean new supply will be ongoing. Either construction price has to increase (a lot) or prices have to fall (or a combination of both). The outlook is not great.
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Rufus
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b_b
12 Oct 2017, 03:09 PM
I think you have fallen for a bit of myth here. We (Sydney) have always had population growth. And yes, it has picked up over the past few years but nothing too out of the ordinary - especially when compared to the pre GFC period when Sydney dwelling supply was 1/3rd of what it is today.
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So long as prices exceed cost, the development equation will mean new supply will be ongoing. Either construction price has to increase (a lot) or prices have to fall (or a combination of both). The outlook is not great.
along with everyone else I expected to see a surplus of stock, but it hasn't happened.

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Stock in Sydney has increased but it's not that bad, and in Brisbane the number of inner city units does exceed the number required, but house supply has remained steady.
Long term trend in Melbourne is down.

Foreign buyers -
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Edited by Rufus, 12 Oct 2017, 03:22 PM.
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b_b
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Rufus
12 Oct 2017, 03:17 PM
along with everyone else I expected to see a surplus of stock, but it hasn't happened.

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Stock in Sydney has increased but it's not that bad, and in Brisbane the number of inner city units does exceed the number required, but house supply has remained steady.
Long term trend in Melbourne is down.
Stock on market is not new supply. Upon sale the buyer has a home and the seller is now looking for a home. Net net, nothing has happened to supply.

Incremental supply versus incremental demand it what drives markets. Dwellings under construction provides a glimpse into the future. And in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane the outlook is grim.

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Edited by b_b, 12 Oct 2017, 03:25 PM.
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