Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Tweet Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,487 Views)
Yes the ownership rate in Perth at 2016 is 70% but Perth house prices aren't the lowest capital city prices in Australia, so why doesn't Adelaide and Hobart have even higher levels of ownership. If your theory is true that would be the case, would it not.
No because there is all sorts of other factors and I have never pretended otherwise.
But the price of those same houses and the inflation in prices of those same houses is very much one of those factors.
Do you disagree?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
No because there is all sorts of other factors and I have never pretended otherwise.
But the price of those same houses and the inflation in prices of those same houses is very much one of those factors.
Do you disagree?
You have shifted the goal posts.
I don't have the data for Perth ownership rates for 2011, but broadly during the period from 2011 to 2016 ownership rate in WA did increase from about 67.5% to 68.5% but a small fall in house prices in Perth wasn't the only factor, and it doesn't mean that younger buyers increased their share, we just don't have that data. It might be released in time but it's not here yet. A variation of 1% could be due to a number of factors, including a statistical margin of error.
see chart below.
Do you not accept that young people are starting their careers later in life, and buying their house later in life, and that must affect the levels of ownership for the age groups up to maybe 40 years of age.
I don't have the data for Perth ownership rates for 2011, but broadly during the period from 2011 to 2016 ownership rate in WA did increase from about 67.5% to 68.5% but a small fall in house prices in Perth wasn't the only factor, and it doesn't mean that younger buyers increased their share, we just don't have that data. It might be released in time but it's not here yet. A variation of 1% could be due to a number of factors, including a statistical margin of error.
see chart below.
Do you not accept that young people are starting their careers later in life, and buying their house later in life, and that must affect the levels of ownership for the age groups up to maybe 40 years of age.
I have never claimed house prices were the only factor.
But you and Shadow have claimed that house prices arent a factor at all.
Instead you have argued that its everything else but house price inflation.
It seems obvious to me that Perth would not have had an increase in home ownership rates had house prices inflated like that did in Sydney.
FTB demand is clearly higher in WA and that is heavily linked to affordability. Whats the principle enemy of affordability? High prices going higher, which is exactly what happened in Sydney and the opposite of what occurred in Perth.
Again, does house price inflation have an influence or not?
Simple question.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Comparing across family types, the sharpest decline in home ownership has been among couples with dependent children. In 2002, 55.5% of individuals in this family type were home owners, but by 2014 only 38.6% were home owners.
I have never claimed house prices were the only factor.
But you and Shadow have claimed that house prices arent a factor at all.
Instead you have argued that its everything else but house price inflation.
It seems obvious to me that Perth would not have had an increase in home ownership rates had house prices inflated like that did in Sydney.
FTB demand is clearly higher in WA and that is heavily linked to affordability. Whats the principle enemy of affordability? High prices going higher, which is exactly what happened in Sydney and the opposite of what occurred in Perth.
Again, does house price inflation have an influence or not?
Simple question.
You keep bringing it all back to house prices even though you acknowledge there are more issues. Correct me if I'm wrong but median incomes are also higher in Perth than Sydney.
Ownership levels in cities will ebb and flow a bit as prices rise and fall, but saying that the only factor between now and 1960 is prices is really dumb. Prices are undoubtedly a factor, but not the main factor. If they were the main factor Sydney would have the lowest home ownership level, but it doesn't, Darwin does with median house prices around half the prices in Sydney and falling.
You keep bringing it all back to house prices even though you acknowledge there are more issues. Correct me if I'm wrong but median incomes are also higher in Perth than Sydney.
Ownership levels in cities will ebb and flow a bit as prices rise and fall, but saying that the only factor between now and 1960 is prices is really dumb. Prices are undoubtedly a factor, but not the main factor. If they were the main factor Sydney would have the lowest home ownership level, but it doesn't, Darwin does with median house prices around half the prices in Sydney and falling.
Finally!
House prince inflation effects how many people buy houses!
Lets crack out the champers!
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
House prince inflation effects how many people buy houses!
Lets crack out the champers!
We discussed prices, not inflation. People buy during inflationary times. You will probably see ownership rates for the young fall in Perth during this period.
Yet you won't concede that a later start in a career makes any difference to the ownership rates of younger Australians, which is actually what this discussion is about, it's not all about Perth.
We're the top 5 of the highest house prices in the world in our major cities and our income has trailed house price increases by about 15%pa for the last 5yrs and yet shadow states housing is more affordable today for young couples with children?
We're the top 5 of the highest house prices in the world in our major cities and our income has trailed house price increases by about 15%pa for the last 5yrs and yet shadow states housing is more affordable today for young couples with children?
Laughable at best
He'll have a graph somewhere that shows tax dodges, plus family benefits part A and part B, plus imputed rents, with bank account offsets and taking into consideration superannuation benefits.... houses are cheaper for families with 20 kids.
Of course youll further need to chuck in one of his unrealistic assumptions to make it work.
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