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Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,488 Views)
Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 08:32 PM
Lets assume the data I have presented is correct
You haven't presented any data.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 08:30 PM
Here's what the official ABS data says...

Posted Image

Posted Image
So just ignore the HILDA data that is more up to data then yeah?

Here is what you have to debunk

Hilda:

Quote:
 
Table 7.1 presents home-ownership
rates—that is, the proportion of
people who own the home in which
they live—by sex and age group in
each of the four years in which the
HILDA Survey has identified the
legal owners of owner-occupied
housing.1 In 2014, approximately
25% of men and women aged 18 to
39 were home owners, down from
nearly 36% in 2002. All age groups
have experienced substantial
declines in home ownership over
the 12-year period from 2002 to
2014. The decline is relatively
small for individuals aged 18 to 24,
but this reflects the very small
proportion of this age group owning
their home over the entire period—
indeed, the 3.8 percentage-point
decline represents a 61% decline in
home ownership for this age group.
The decline in home ownership
primarily occurred between 2002
and 2006 and between 2010 and
2014. This pattern is very much
consistent with movements in
house prices as measured by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics over
the 2002 to 2014 period, with
house price growth particularly
strong in the mid-2000s and since
2012 (ABS, 2017c)
.


http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2437426/HILDA-SR-med-res.pdf


HiLDA are part of the doomsayer bear coaltion are they?
Rat
1 Sep 2017, 08:33 PM
You haven't presented any data.
Every single fact that I presented in the post in question is a fact.

If you dont believe me, check yourself.

This argument is absurd: you're basically saying that the price of a good can double and that will have no effect on sales. :wak:
Edited by Veritas, 1 Sep 2017, 08:47 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 08:44 PM
Posted Image

So just ignore the HILDA data that is more up to data then yeah?
Check your calendar. The 2016 census data is actually more recent than the 2014 HILDA data.

As you can see from the chart, our home ownership rate is currently 67%. It was 68% in 1976 and 63% in 1954.

So it moves around a bit, but it has remained within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. It really hasn't changed much.

What's the big deal?
Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 08:51 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 08:47 PM
Check your calendar. The 2016 census data is actually more recent than the 2014 HILDA data.

As you can see from the chart, our home ownership rate is currently 67%. It was 68% in 1976 and 63% in 1954.

So it moves around a bit, but it has remained within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. It really hasn't changed much.

What's the big deal?
Its doesnt matter what it was in 1976!!!

Its been falling since 2001 and those falls have been most pronounced among younger cohorts.

Are you are arguing that that has nothing to do with house price growth during the same period.

You are ruling that out completely.

Your argument is totally absurd.

And why are you ignoring the series of questions I posed on Perth. How can the fact that Perth's home ownership rate is up and NSW's is down have nothing to do with the fact that house prices in those places behaved completely differently?

Is that about people getting married later going on Contiki tours too? :re:
Edited by Veritas, 1 Sep 2017, 08:56 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 08:54 PM
Its doesnt matter what it was in 1976!!!

Its been falling since 2001
It has fallen by a couple of percent since 2001, after having previously increased by more than 20% since the early 1900s.

So yeah, it's dropped back a tiny bit from its all time record high to a level that is still far higher than it used to be.

What did you expect it to do after hitting an all time record high... keep rising to 100% home ownership? :re:

It basically hit an all time record high and then plateaued for six decades, rising and falling by a few percent but generally remaining close to 69%.

Posted Image
Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 09:01 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Rufus
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 08:32 PM
Lets assume the data I have presented is correct ( and it is 100%)

Would you agree that the relationship between prices and the home ownrsip rate described is correct?
You haven't presented any data, there is state data but not capital city data, but if what you say is correct other states such as Qld & SA would also have fared better than NSW from 2011 to 2016 but they didn't.

WA did improve between 2011 and 2016, but as I said earlier that was probably due to the more generous FHOG in WA. House prices in Perth have only moderated, they haven't fallen by that much especially at the entry level.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 08:58 PM
It has fallen by a couple of percent since 2001, after having previously increased by over 20% since the 1940s.

So yeah, it's dropped back a tiny bit from its all time record high to a level that is still far higher than it used to be.

What did you expect it to do after it hitting an all time record high... keep rising to 100% home ownership? :re:
Stop shifting the f***ing goal posts!

Is it down to higher prices or not?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
Member Avatar
Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 09:00 PM
Stop shifting the f***ing goal posts
So now discussing our home ownership rate is 'shifting the goalposts'? :wak:
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rufus
1 Sep 2017, 08:59 PM
You haven't presented any data, there is state data but not capital city data, but if what you say is correct other states such as Qld & SA would also have fared better than NSW from 2011 to 2016 but they didn't.

WA did improve between 2011 and 2016, but as I said earlier that was probably due to the more generous FHOG in WA. House prices in Perth have only moderated, they haven't fallen by that much especially at the entry level.
The facts as I laid them out are verifiably true. Perth has the countries highest home ownership rate at 70%

Again, do you or dont you accept that house price movements is a factor in the difference in performance in NSW and WA between 2011 and 2016 in terms of home ownership?
Rat
1 Sep 2017, 09:02 PM
So now discussing our home ownership rate is 'shifting the goalposts'? :wak:
Okay, thats as close as you will come to conceding defeat.

Apology accepted.
Edited by Veritas, 1 Sep 2017, 09:04 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rufus
Member Avatar


Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 09:02 PM
The facts as I laid them out are verifiably true. Perth has the countries highest home ownership rate at 70%

Yes the ownership rate in Perth at 2016 is 70% but Perth house prices aren't the lowest capital city prices in Australia, so why doesn't Adelaide and Hobart have even higher levels of ownership. If your theory is true that would be the case, would it not.

BTW you don't have the breakup for age groups or couples with children.
Edited by Rufus, 1 Sep 2017, 09:20 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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