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Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,489 Views)
Veritas
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Rufus
1 Sep 2017, 05:26 PM
Righto.

So let’s compare WA and NSW over the last five years.

NSW: prices double, FTB numbers fall, homeownership rate falls, number of renters increase.

WA: Prices go backwards, FTB run hot accounting for over 20% of mortgages, home ownership rate rises, numbers of renters decreases.

What’s the common denominator here? The age at which people finished school or had kids or the movement in house prices during the period in question?

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rufus
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 06:06 PM
Righto.

So let’s compare WA and NSW over the last five years.

NSW: prices double, FTB numbers fall, homeownership rate falls, number of renters increase.

WA: Prices go backwards, FTB run hot accounting for over 20% of mortgages, home ownership rate rises, numbers of renters decreases.

What’s the common denominator here? The age at which people finished school or had kids or the movement in house prices during the period in question?
Have you got some data on the different age groups for Perth and Sydney.

Have you factored in Keystart and the FHOG available in WA until recently.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Veritas
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Rufus
1 Sep 2017, 06:21 PM
Have you got some data on the different age groups for Perth and Sydney.

Have you factored in Keystart and the FHOG available in WA until recently.
Sure we can factor in Keystart but I dare say it would have made a blind bit of difference if the median Perth house price was knocking on the door of a million dollars.

Keystart’s customer pool would have collapsed; who could repay the mortgages required to buy the houses?

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 04:52 PM
No, what is going on here is that you asked for evidence, it was provided and you are splitting hairs and making stupid arguments rather than admit you are wrong.
I specifically asked "Show me the data for all couples with kids (not just lower age groups".

So you showed me the (already debunked) data just for lower age groups again. :re:

We know home ownership is down for 18-25 years olds. I have already explained why. They are delaying buying until later in life.

Overall home ownership in Australia has been within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. That's what the official ABS data shows.
Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 07:10 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 07:07 PM
I specifically asked "Show me the data for all couples with kids (not just lower age groups".

So you showed me the (already debunked) data just for lower age groups again. :re:

We know home ownership is down for 18-25 years olds. I have already explained why. They are delaying buying until later in life.

Overall home ownership in Australia has been within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. That's what the official ABS data shows.
It’s not debunked you fool.

It’s a like for like comparison of the same cohort from 2002 to 2016.

You are trying to pretend that there has been a massive societal shift in 14 years. Its garbage.

Perhaps you would like to have a go at explaining the divergence between Perth and NSW has nothing to do with the fact that house prices in the latter and fell in the former?

Best of luck explaining that away.


Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rufus
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 07:13 PM
It’s not debunked you fool.

It’s a like for like comparison of the same cohort from 2002 to 2016.

You are trying to pretend that there has been a massive societal shift in 14 years. Its garbage.

Perhaps you would like to have a go at explaining the divergence between Perth and NSW has nothing to do with the fact that house prices in the latter and fell in the former?

Best of luck explaining that away.

There has always been a price differential between Sydney and Perth.
What does a difference in the level of ownership between cities prove if those levels are constant. If you go back to 1960 the price of Sydney houses will still be way above the price in Perth - and the level of ownership is probably different - what does that prove.

What you are trying to prove is that over recent decades the rate of ownership has changed, not that there is a difference between cities.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Veritas
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Rufus
1 Sep 2017, 07:40 PM
There has always been a price differential between Sydney and Perth.
What does a difference in the level of ownership between cities prove if those levels are constant. If you go back to 1960 the price of Sydney houses will still be way above the price in Perth - and the level of ownership is probably different - what does that prove.

What you are trying to prove is that over recent decades the rate of ownership has changed, not that there is a difference between cities.
No, thats not all what i said.

Fact 1: House Prices between the last two censuses in WA and NSW behaved in very different ways. Prices in NSW went through the roof and WA fell back.

Fact 2: The amount of FTBs in WA was far higher during the same period then was the case in NSW. In fact, the numbers fell in NSW.

Fact 3: The home ownership rate in WA increased and decreased in NSW.

Now, what you and Shadow are arguing is that Fact 1 has had no bearing on Fact 2 or Fact 3.

That is the most ridiculous argument I have ever heard.


Edited by Veritas, 1 Sep 2017, 08:03 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rufus
Member Avatar


Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 08:02 PM
No, thats not all what i said.

Fact 1: House Prices between the last two censuses in WA and NSW behaved in very different ways. Prices in NSW went through the roof and WA fell back.

Fact 2: The amount of FTBs in WA was far higher during the same period then was the case in NSW. In fact, the numbers fell in NSW.

Fact 3: The home ownership rate in WA increased and decreased in NSW.

Now, what you and Shadow are arguing is that Fact 1 has had no bearing on Fact 2 or Fact 3.

That is the most ridiculous argument I have ever heard.

Where is the data?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 07:13 PM
It’s not debunked you fool
Here's what the official ABS data says...

Posted Image

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Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 08:31 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rufus
1 Sep 2017, 08:14 PM
Where is the data?
Lets assume the data I have presented is correct ( and it is 100%)

Would you agree that the relationship between prices and the home ownrsip rate described is correct?
Edited by Veritas, 1 Sep 2017, 08:33 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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