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Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,490 Views)
Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 02:29 PM
People like Veritas and Chris believe that just because they can't afford a home then it must mean nobody else can either.

But the truth is even someone on minimum wage can afford to buy a home in Australia, if they're willing to make a few sacrifices (something Veritas and Chris aren't willing to do).

Why the abuse?

Yes, home ownership is much higher today than it was in 1770 or 1950 or any time in between. For the past six decades it has remained within +-2% of 69%.

After rising sharply from ~50% in the 1940s to ~70% in the 1960s, what did you expect to happen? Did you expect it to keep climbing at that rate until it hit 100%?

Of course not, it can't rise forever, so after rising rapidly to a very high level it then plateaued for 60 years, just declining very slightly from that all-time peak.

Posted Image
Why the nonsensical spin?

You simply denying the facts.

Home ownership rates are falling. They are falling most profoundly among younger cohorts.

The impact of higher house prices is far greater than changes in consumer choice.

You have consistently argued that its due to people putting off buying until later due to delaying marriage and kids.

If that is the case, how do you explain the significant fall in home ownership among couples with kids?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 03:05 PM
If that is the case, how do you explain the significant fall in home ownership among couples with kids?
Show me the data for all couples with kids (not just lower age groups, since young people in general are delaying home ownership due to spending longer in education and traveling before settling down).

I'd be surprised if there was any significant fall in home ownership among couples aged 40+.
Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 03:28 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Chris
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 03:05 PM

Home ownership rates are falling. They are falling most profoundly among younger cohorts.

You have consistently argued that its due to people putting off buying until later due to delaying marriage and kids.

Yeah, like there's no correlation between high house prices and people being forced to buy later on life or not at all. It is just common sense stuff but these blokes think everyone is as stupid as them when they spin this propaganda dribble.

High house prices relegated people to getting married later and having kids later if at all. To suggest otherwise highlights a serious lack of intellect

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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Here's some actual ABS census data on couples with children...

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/TrendsHomeOwnership

Home ownership rates in Australia by household composition: Proportion of household types who are purchasers, percentage
Posted Image

Contrary to the spin we hear from Veritas and Chris, home ownership among couples with children has been INCREASING since the 1990s for couples aged 25+.

So like I have said all along, they are simply delaying it until later. Ownership has fallen for 18-24 year olds as they spend longer in education, traveling, delaying marriage and kids etc.

But that decline in ownership among 18-24 year olds is balanced out by an increase for 25+ year old couples. Hence why Australia's overall homeownership rate hasn't changed much over the past six decades. Young people are just waiting until later to get married, and then they're buying their first home in their mid 20s, 30s or 40s instead of doing it in their late teens and early 20s as was previously the case when few people went to college or traveled the world in their youth.
Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 03:46 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Blondie girl
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Reading, reading, reading.

Chris and veritas?
Buy what you can afford for you and stop analysing what was, what is, what how and compare whatever countries that suits whatever.

Stop complaining like a cry baby about just about everything and perhaps what I post next may insult you.

Perhaps you both are your own worst enemy and stayed in your dad's b@#$% or your mum missed on swallowing you both.

What's in it for you and for you only?
(financially of course).
oh
I scared veritas............

:o
Rat
1 Sep 2017, 03:36 PM
Here's some actual ABS census data on couples with children...

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/TrendsHomeOwnership

Home ownership rates in Australia by household composition: Proportion of household types who are purchasers, percentage
Posted Image

Contrary to the spin we hear from Veritas and Chris, home ownership among couples with children has been INCREASING since the 1990s for couples aged 25+.

So like I have said all along, they are simply delaying it until later. Ownership has fallen for 18-24 year olds as they spend longer in education, traveling, delaying marriage and kids etc.

But that decline in ownership among 18-24 year olds is balanced out by an increase for 25+ year old couples. Hence why Australia's overall homeownership rate hasn't changed much over the past six decades. Young people are just waiting until later to get married, and then they're buying their first home in their mid 20s, 30s or 40s instead of doing it in their late teens and early 20s as was previously the case when few people went to college or traveled the world in their youth.
Ratsak is your friend.
Edited by Blondie girl, 1 Sep 2017, 04:12 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 03:36 PM
Here's some actual ABS census data on couples with children...

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/TrendsHomeOwnership

Home ownership rates in Australia by household composition: Proportion of household types who are purchasers, percentage
Posted Image

Contrary to the spin we hear from Veritas and Chris, home ownership among couples with children has been INCREASING since the 1990s for couples aged 25+.

So like I have said all along, they are simply delaying it until later. Ownership has fallen for 18-24 year olds as they spend longer in education, traveling, delaying marriage and kids etc.

But that decline in ownership among 18-24 year olds is balanced out by an increase for 25+ year old couples. Hence why Australia's overall homeownership rate hasn't changed much over the past six decades. Young people are just waiting until later to get married, and then they're buying their first home in their mid 20s, 30s or 40s instead of doing it in their late teens and early 20s as was previously the case when few people went to college or traveled the world in their youth.
Comparing across family types, the
sharpest decline in home
ownership has been among couples
with dependent children. In 2002,
55.5% of individuals in this family
type were home owners, but by
2014 only 38.6% were home
owners.


http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2437426/HILDA-SR-med-res.pdf
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
Member Avatar
Filthy Rodent

Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 04:13 PM
Comparing across family types, the
sharpest decline in home
ownership has been among couples
with dependent children. In 2002,
55.5% of individuals in this family
type were home owners, but by
2014 only 38.6% were home
owners.


http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2437426/HILDA-SR-med-res.pdf
That's referring to 18-39 year olds only, so it would be heavily skewed by the decline among 18-25 years olds for the reasons I've already covered. Eighteen year old kids these days have no interest in buying a home. They are barely out of school. Kids don't leave school at 15 and go off to learn a trade and buy a house at 18 any more. It rarely happens because these days they are still in the education system until mid 20s.

So really all it's telling us is that home ownership among young people has fallen, and we know this is because they are spending longer in education and traveling etc.

Overall home ownership hasn't changed much in the past six decades, and the ABS data shows it has actually increased for couples aged 25+ since the 1990s.

Posted Image

Edited by Rat, 1 Sep 2017, 04:37 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
1 Sep 2017, 04:32 PM
That's referring to 18-39 year olds only, so it would be heavily skewed by the decline among 18-25 years olds for the reasons I've already covered. Eighteen year old kids these days have no interest in buying a home. They are barely out of school. Kids don't leave school at 15 and go off to learn a trade and buy a house at 18 any more. It rarely happens because these days they are still in the education system until mid 20s.

So really all it's telling us is that home ownership among young people has fallen, and we know this is because they are spending longer in education and traveling etc.

Overall home ownership hasn't changed much in the past six decades, and the ABS data shows it has actually increased for couples aged 25+ since the 1990s.

Posted Image
No, what is going on here is that you asked for evidence, it was provided and you are splitting hairs and making stupid arguments rather than admit you are wrong.

There is virtually no serious commentator on the Australian housing system that is denying ( like you are) that home ownership rates are trending down and that high house prices is the main driver of that phenomenon.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Rat
31 Aug 2017, 08:28 AM

Posted Image

Home ownership as a cold war response to communism.

Let them have "mortgages and home improvements"

Edited by Ex BP Golly, 1 Sep 2017, 05:12 PM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Rufus
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Veritas
1 Sep 2017, 04:52 PM
There is virtually no serious commentator on the Australian housing system that is denying ( like you are) that home ownership rates are trending down and that high house prices is the main driver of that phenomenon.
Stephen Koukoulas is - https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1678717-005410060.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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