Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Tweet Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,493 Views)
The maths still doesn't add up, homes are still getting sold, house prices are in a perpetual state of rising so for all that alleged negativity it has made no adverse impact on homeowners, investors and developers so why would he be bothered by it so much he had to dedicate an article in a national rag for it?
Campaigning the social injustice of not buying extremely overpriced housing, mmmmmm it's a new angle but it just might get up !
"Social injustice" - LOL
It's interesting how expectations change.
I grew up expecting that if there were jobs going and I proved adequate, I'd be able to get one and hold it. And imagining that if the working conditions just weren't quite what one might hope, the union may be able to improve them from time to time - If we all all had the guts to stick it out and fight it through - When necessary. Plus that by and large (apart from having to fight its shitty wars when conscripted) the gov would by and large leave me alone to make my own little way where I chose to how I chose to when I chose to and if I chose to - Providing I was just pretty much law abiding generally of course. Including most likely being able to buy a bit of shit dirt somewhere in bumf*** someday and build my own house on it just basically using my own labour without getting too much grief from the bastards in the process of doing it. Hmmm - And was actually a bit surprised (slightly shocked even?) to realise one day that as I was seen as 'poor' (not that I felt I was? - Or maybe it had just become available to everyone???), I could get visits to a GP (and even a bit of dental done at the local hospital if absolutely necessary) for free.
But it's a very, very, very different nation now mate! - LOL
Hmmm - Talk about a bunch of people who've just prostituted their principles and sold themselves out to ever increasing gov bribes for their votes - Losing ever more of their freedom and liberty and independence and self reliance in the process of doing so. To the point where lots and lots are obviously certain assured that if they have any little issues or probs, it's obviously gotta be up ta gov ta 'fix' their said little issues/probs - And in just precisely the way they'd like them to be fixed too Thank you very much.
Anyway, that's what we've become and there's eff all I can do about it - Certainly not with the great majority seeming to generally genuinely prefer things being these ways nowadays anyways.
Oh and PS: I feel I'm simply performing my 'civic duty' in informing you of this Chris ... (Not that it'll make any diff given that you're just an idiot and a whingy entitlement minded prick who's obviously been totally sucked in by their rhetoric.) Tho try to not feel too bad about it - Because I'm sure you're in the majority in having been sucked in by it. But your sheer nastiness that derives at least in part from you having been sucked in by it, does get a bit over the top just a bit too much for mine.
It would affect anyone who delayed investing, developing, or owning a home (or even worse, sold one) five years ago after being sucked in by their doom and gloom predictions.
But why would this bother this bloke? Again, are we to believe he's a battler for social injustice?
Fukn spare me!
Rat
29 Aug 2017, 11:10 PM
It's not unusual to call people out when they get stuff wrong - especially when their wrong predictions were made very publicly and with much fanfare. It's called accountability. It seems you would prefer if the doomsayers were never held to account for their bad advice?
What about the 100's of social commentators in the US championing housing up to the 11th hour? What about investment houses selling time bomb derivatives in the knowledge it was a pass the parcel setup with financial oblivion as the prize? Madoff was held accountable, anyone else though?
Weak arguement shadow, it is just pure propaganda and a tactic used to sooth percieved jitters in a cooling market.
Jonathan Chancellor: Be wary of property doomsayers
JONATHAN CHANCELLOR, The Daily Telegraph
August 25, 2017 12:00am
FOR years now, home buyers and investors have had to wade through a sea of negativity on housing price commentary, while all the time prices have been going up. Bearish commentators have regularly forecast dramatic downturns.
Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a headline grabbing forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent?
You’d be sitting on the sidelines, having missed out on 10, 20, maybe 50 per cent price growth.
The economic bear, Gerard Minack, has long been warning of a recession. It was supposed to come as Australia ended its once-in-a-century mining boom.
“I think it’s a powder keg,” he told the Four Corners reporter investigating the forces driving our debt fuelled housing boom.
“I don’t know when we get a downturn that pops this, but sure as hell one’s coming.”
Mr Minack, the former Morgan Stanley executive, said Australia had been led down a perilous path by current tax arrangements and lenders who had been increasingly willing to leverage up borrowers.
“For every $1 of household income, there’s (nearly) $2 of debt,” Mr Minack said.
The same Mr Minack quietly upgraded Mosman homes a little while back to a $4.2 million three-storey house.
Mr Minack’s former Federation sold for $3.1 million having paid $1.2 million in 1999, appreciating at a nice annual rate of 6.45 per cent.
Locals say he bought well as the block cost $2,725,000 about 10 years ago.
Of course, there was risk for Mr Minack, like every other purchaser, and something could happen to any family or our economy that makes a sound purchase riskier.
In 2015 before his purchase Mr Minack forecast “when we get across-the-board unemployment then we’ll get an across-the-board downturn in house prices; it’s just a matter of time.”
Time has moved on to record low unemployment, with most home purchasers happy with their well-leveraged lot.
More shit from Newscorps only financially viable arm, real estate advertising.
To think, Australia's property bubble is designed to keep people like Merde'ock floating on the top.
Perhaps he just doesn't like BS, so he warns against it as a community service. Homeownership isn't a competitive pursuit.
Did you write that with a straight face?
Shadow is to civic duty what ISIS are to women's rights.
Why not just accept that home ownership rates are falling ( especially for young people) because they have been priced out?
I notice that Shadow has had to retire his "home ownership rates havent changed in 40 years" sctick because the data is now in. Higher prices have shut young people out and its f*** all to do with people getting married later either. Another load of bollox, Shadow used to peddle.
If Shadow or you were serious about civic duty you would acknowledge and seek to amend the glaring inequities in the way we provide shelter in this country.
Laughable guff.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
He doesn't appear to be "bothered" - he's simply pointing out the fact that the doomsayers don't have a clue.
Quote:
What about the 100's of social commentators in the US championing housing up to the 11th hour?
I think it's good that they were held to account.
Quote:
it is just pure propaganda
Holding people to account for getting everything wrong is not propaganda.
Veritas
31 Aug 2017, 12:49 AM
glaring inequities in the way we provide shelter in this country
There is no inequity. Even someone on minimum wage can afford to buy a home in Australia, and our home ownership rate had barely changed since 1960, after having increased substantially since the 30s and 40s. Australia's home ownership rate has remained within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. It was 67% at the last census, 68% in 1976, and 63% in 1954.
We actually have a higher homeownership rate than most comparable countries.
There has been a very slight fall for some age groups, but that's because they are simply delaying it until later in life. This is a broad demographic trend seen in most developed countries, and regardless of house prices. Young people are staying in education for longer, traveling before settling down, getting married later, having kids later, and buying homes later (buying a home is often done when couples get married or have kids). They are also living longer, so they'll have just as many years to enjoy their new home as the previous generations did.
Come on, where's your sense of humour. It is largely true though, Shadow has saved a lot of people who might otherwise have fallen victim to the Doomsayers who have largely been wrong. Good advice is good advice.
Quote:
Shadow is to civic duty what ISIS are to women's rights.
Why not just accept that home ownership rates are falling ( especially for young people) because they have been priced out?
I notice that Shadow has had to retire his "home ownership rates havent changed in 40 years" sctick because the data is now in. Higher prices have shut young people out and its f*** all to do with people getting married later either. Another load of bollox, Shadow used to peddle.
If Shadow or you were serious about civic duty you would acknowledge and seek to amend the glaring inequities in the way we provide shelter in this country.
Laughable guff.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think our home ownership rate peaked at 73% and is now about 67% and it will probably fall further and level off at about 60%. Now show me where it's carved in stone that 67% or 60% isn't a good outcome for a wealthy country. Germany hovers at just above 40% and Germany is held up as a model for the rest of us. Should we aim for 43% instead.
While I'm on it Houston is having massive flood issues exacerbated by rampant development where proper drainage planning was put to one side to allow more houses to be built cheaper - but now they are paying. Houston was another city held up as a model for all of us to follow without any regard for the consequences for following that model.
But back to the original question, please show me some definitive work where a magic number is carved in stone for all of us to worship.
Aren't you glad Shadow gave people the confidence to buy a house and they didn't sit back like other bears and wait forever.
He doesn't appear to be "bothered" - he's simply pointing out the fact that the doomsayers don't have a clue.
I think it's good that they were held to account.
Holding people to account for getting everything wrong is not propaganda.
There is no inequity. Even someone on minimum wage can afford to buy a home in Australia, and our home ownership rate had barely changed since 1960, after having increased substantially since the 30s and 40s. Australia's home ownership rate has remained within +-2% of 69% for the past six decades. It was 67% at the last census, 68% in 1976, and 63% in 1954.
We actually have a higher homeownership rate than most comparable countries.
There has been a very slight fall for some age groups, but that's because they are simply delaying it until later in life. This is a broad demographic trend seen in most developed countries, and regardless of house prices. Young people are staying in education for longer, traveling before settling down, getting married later, having kids later, and buying homes later (buying a home is often done when couples get married or have kids). They are also living longer, so they'll have just as many years to enjoy their new home as the previous generations did.
The latest census data and HILDA gives lie to all of that.
Home ownership rates down Home ownership rates among the young down Home ownership rates among couples with children down ( there goes your settling down later theory) The overall trend, down.
And not by a little, by a lot.
Imagine that! House prices rising much faster than incomes and a taxation system that encourages property speculation would make it harder for people to enter homeownership?
Time for you to change the record mate
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
The latest census data and HILDA gives lie to all of that.
Home ownership rates down Home ownership rates among the young down Home ownership rates among couples with children down ( there goes your settling down later theory) The overall trend, down.
And not by a little, by a lot.
Imagine that! House prices rising much faster than incomes and a taxation system that encourages property speculation would make it harder for people to enter homeownership?
Time for you to change the record mate
In Brisbane house prices are just a bit over half the price of homes in Sydney with only a small difference n household incomes, yet home ownership rates in Sydney are higher than Brisbane. That shoots your argument out of the water.
Also back in the 60's and even the 70's most people left school at 15 so they had a long time to accumulate a deposit by the time they thought about buying a house. Not so today.
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