Be wary of property doomsayers, because they don't have a clue; Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent
Tweet Topic Started: 29 Aug 2017, 08:46 PM (4,485 Views)
Jonathan Chancellor: Be wary of property doomsayers
JONATHAN CHANCELLOR, The Daily Telegraph
August 25, 2017 12:00am
FOR years now, home buyers and investors have had to wade through a sea of negativity on housing price commentary, while all the time prices have been going up. Bearish commentators have regularly forecast dramatic downturns.
Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a headline grabbing forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent?
You’d be sitting on the sidelines, having missed out on 10, 20, maybe 50 per cent price growth.
The economic bear, Gerard Minack, has long been warning of a recession. It was supposed to come as Australia ended its once-in-a-century mining boom.
“I think it’s a powder keg,” he told the Four Corners reporter investigating the forces driving our debt fuelled housing boom.
“I don’t know when we get a downturn that pops this, but sure as hell one’s coming.”
Mr Minack, the former Morgan Stanley executive, said Australia had been led down a perilous path by current tax arrangements and lenders who had been increasingly willing to leverage up borrowers.
“For every $1 of household income, there’s (nearly) $2 of debt,” Mr Minack said.
The same Mr Minack quietly upgraded Mosman homes a little while back to a $4.2 million three-storey house.
Mr Minack’s former Federation sold for $3.1 million having paid $1.2 million in 1999, appreciating at a nice annual rate of 6.45 per cent.
Locals say he bought well as the block cost $2,725,000 about 10 years ago.
Of course, there was risk for Mr Minack, like every other purchaser, and something could happen to any family or our economy that makes a sound purchase riskier.
In 2015 before his purchase Mr Minack forecast “when we get across-the-board unemployment then we’ll get an across-the-board downturn in house prices; it’s just a matter of time.”
Time has moved on to record low unemployment, with most home purchasers happy with their well-leveraged lot.
Jonathan Chancellor: Be wary of property doomsayers
JONATHAN CHANCELLOR, The Daily Telegraph
August 25, 2017 12:00am
FOR years now, home buyers and investors have had to wade through a sea of negativity on housing price commentary, while all the time prices have been going up. Bearish commentators have regularly forecast dramatic downturns.
Imagine if you had missed out because you placed faith in a headline grabbing forecast by Steve Keen or Harry Dent?
You’d be sitting on the sidelines, having missed out on 10, 20, maybe 50 per cent price growth.
The economic bear, Gerard Minack, has long been warning of a recession. It was supposed to come as Australia ended its once-in-a-century mining boom.
“I think it’s a powder keg,” he told the Four Corners reporter investigating the forces driving our debt fuelled housing boom.
“I don’t know when we get a downturn that pops this, but sure as hell one’s coming.”
Mr Minack, the former Morgan Stanley executive, said Australia had been led down a perilous path by current tax arrangements and lenders who had been increasingly willing to leverage up borrowers.
“For every $1 of household income, there’s (nearly) $2 of debt,” Mr Minack said.
The same Mr Minack quietly upgraded Mosman homes a little while back to a $4.2 million three-storey house.
Mr Minack’s former Federation sold for $3.1 million having paid $1.2 million in 1999, appreciating at a nice annual rate of 6.45 per cent.
Locals say he bought well as the block cost $2,725,000 about 10 years ago.
Of course, there was risk for Mr Minack, like every other purchaser, and something could happen to any family or our economy that makes a sound purchase riskier.
In 2015 before his purchase Mr Minack forecast “when we get across-the-board unemployment then we’ll get an across-the-board downturn in house prices; it’s just a matter of time.”
Time has moved on to record low unemployment, with most home purchasers happy with their well-leveraged lot.
Wow - Gerard "The Bear" Minack has done well out of the asset class he regularly puts down. Imagine that....
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
Wow - Gerard "The Bear" Minack has done well out of the asset class he regularly puts down. Imagine that....
Sheesh; I reckons ole herbie should just rush out 'n buy some shares right about now - Despite all me personal privately felt concerns about 'em; Plus all me 'publicly' (as in here) expressed concerns about 'em as well ...
'N proceed ta just kill tha pig in tha markets 'as always' - Just like Gerry! - LOL
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Does really matter if people are negative about property?
It would if, for example, you delayed buying a home (or even worse, sold one) five years ago after being sucked in by their doom and gloom predictions.
It would if, for example, you delayed buying a home (or even worse, sold one) five years ago after being sucked in by their doom and gloom predictions.
Yes but my point being how does that affect the investor, developer or homeowner?
If I purchased shares that grew in value by 300% why would I go to great lengths to get others to buy the same shares and denounce anyone who was negative about it?
Yes but my point being how does that affect the investor, developer or homeowner?
If I purchased shares that grew in value by 300% why would I go to great lengths to get others to buy the same shares and denounce anyone who was negative about it?
Why would I care Rat?
Perhaps he just doesn't like BS, so he warns against it as a community service. Homeownership isn't a competitive pursuit.
Perhaps he just doesn't like BS, so he warns against it as a community service. Homeownership isn't a competitive pursuit.
A civic duty you might say Rufus? How noble
The maths still doesn't add up, homes are still getting sold, house prices are in a perpetual state of rising so for all that alleged negativity it has made no adverse impact on homeowners, investors and developers so why would he be bothered by it so much he had to dedicate an article in a national rag for it?
Campaigning the social injustice of not buying extremely overpriced housing, mmmmmm it's a new angle but it just might get up !
Yes but my point being how does that affect the investor, developer or homeowner?
It would affect anyone who delayed investing, developing, or owning a home (or even worse, sold one) five years ago after being sucked in by their doom and gloom predictions.
Quote:
If I purchased shares that grew in value by 300% why would I go to great lengths to get others to buy the same shares and denounce anyone who was negative about it?
It's not unusual to call people out when they get stuff wrong - especially when their wrong predictions were made very publicly and with much fanfare. It's called accountability. It seems you would prefer if the doomsayers were never held to account for their bad advice?
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