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Crikey - There is NO Australian Housing Bubble; Four Corners hypes Australia's property 'bubble'
Topic Started: 23 Aug 2017, 08:49 PM (4,166 Views)
Sydneyite
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Ex BP Golly
27 Aug 2017, 09:33 AM
So for every $1 earnt (the easy bit) Australians take on $1.90 debt (the hard bit).

Easy to get rid of that first $1, not so easy to get rid of the second $1.90

Short blocks of wood!
No. Australians hold $1.90 of debt if measured relative to each $1 of average annual household income. Ie, total debt principle could be paid of with 2 years income. They do not "take on" $1.90 for each $1 earned - So again your assertion is BULLSHIT! :re:
Bunyip
27 Aug 2017, 09:37 AM
Your denial is laughable....😄🤣😄😂😆
Really? So you swallow Golly's bullshit statement as well then do you? :re:

What it is you guys really believe? You think that someone borrows $1.90 for every $1 an Australia household earns? Really? You REALLY think that???
Edited by Sydneyite, 27 Aug 2017, 10:09 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Ex BP Golly
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Sydneyite
27 Aug 2017, 10:05 AM
No. Australians hold $1.90 of debt if measured relative to each $1 of average annual household income. Ie, total debt principle could be paid of with 2 years income. They do not "take on" $1.90 for each $1 earned - So again your assertion is BULLSHIT! :re:

Really? So you swallow Golly's bullshit statement as well then do you? :re:

What it is you guys really believe? You think that someone borrows $1.90 for every $1 an Australia household earns? Really? You REALLY think that???
It wasn't an assertion, it was a question.

"So Australians fly to the moon"
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Ex BP Golly
26 Aug 2017, 10:51 AM
You squirmed when ABC 4 Corners examined the bubble, but enter a frenzy of masturbation every time Dr Wilson opens his mouth.

That is artificial.
What are you gibbering about?
Ex BP Golly
27 Aug 2017, 09:33 AM
So for every $1 earnt (the easy bit) Australians take on $1.90 debt (the hard bit).

Easy to get rid of that first $1, not so easy to get rid of the second $1.90
Rubbish assertion. That would mean taking on an additional debt equaling 1.9X income every year.
Edited by Rat, 28 Aug 2017, 08:46 AM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Jon Snow
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Sydneyite
27 Aug 2017, 10:05 AM
No. Australians hold $1.90 of debt if measured relative to each $1 of average annual household income. Ie, total debt principle could be paid of with 2 years income.
So why do people take out 30 year mortgages?
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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herbie
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Jon Snow
29 Aug 2017, 11:03 PM
So why do people take out 30 year mortgages?
Because the consumer economy has brain washed them into thinking they need to spend a rather large part of their income buying tat to make them feel good about themselves and thereby prop it up.

Oh, and because some 10% of their potential income is no longer available to them through having been been compulsorily forced into super - A bit more than that even for many if they are (rather sensibly - IMO) trying to minimise tax.

And Yes, also because housing prices are higher than they were in the past (for all sorts of understandable reasons) - Even though the prices on lots of other stuff is lower.
Edited by herbie, 30 Aug 2017, 05:18 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Ex BP Golly
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herbie
30 Aug 2017, 03:41 AM
Because the consumer economy has brain washed them into thinking they need to spend a rather large part of their income buying tat to make them feel good about themselves and thereby prop it up.

Oh, and because some 10% of their potential income is no longer available to them through having been been compulsorily forced into super - A bit more than that even for many if they are (rather sensibly - IMO) trying to minimise tax.

And Yes, also because housing prices are higher than they were in the past (for all sorts of understandable reasons) - Even though the prices on lots of other stuff is lower.
How long did it take your old's to pay off their home Herbie, back in the day homes were 3x annual income?

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Chris
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Ex BP Golly
30 Aug 2017, 08:31 AM
How long did it take your old's to pay off their home Herbie, back in the day homes were 3x annual income?
Irrelevant in a modern day arena apparently, they had it just as tough too you know?

The fact they could comfortably pay down their homes in 15yrs or less bares no relevance to the modern day housing debate
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Sydneyite
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Ex BP Golly
30 Aug 2017, 08:31 AM
How long did it take your old's to pay off their home Herbie, back in the day homes were 3x annual income?
My parents took 20 years to pay off their mortgage. There was no flexibility in loans taken out in the 60s and 70s - you could not make extra payments, no offset accounts etc etc.

I have paid off 3 mortgages over three distinct PPORs in the modern era, each in far shorter time than my parents who only ever had one mortgage taken out in 1966 and paid of in 1986 (it was a 20 year loan).
Jon Snow
29 Aug 2017, 11:03 PM
So why do people take out 30 year mortgages?
You understand how aggregate statistics work vs individual circumstances at different life stages, right? :re:
Edited by Sydneyite, 30 Aug 2017, 03:40 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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herbie
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Ex BP Golly
30 Aug 2017, 08:31 AM
How long did it take your old's to pay off their home Herbie, back in the day homes were 3x annual income?
My olds never paid off a home Golly.

They saved up and bought a block of dirt in bumf***. While living at home with the old man's olds.

And the old man built their first home (what would be referred to as a low set 'fibro shack' by many these days) himself (even though he was not a builder or had a trade of any sort). It had electricity. And an outhouse down the back. But certainly didn't have curb and channeling on the street frontage. And for water they hooked into the supply of a neighbour a bit further down the street.

Interesting: When he and mum got back from their honeymoon, his best mate (who was also not a builder and didn't have a trade of any sort) had cut out the frame of house for him ready to be erected - As a nice surprise.

They used handsaws and brace and bits and hammers and chisels back in those days (as in no power tools) - I know that for sure because even though I don't remember him cutting out the frame for their next home (a high set 'fibro shack'), I do remember him cutting out the frame for for the third house he built - It was an investment property.

All done in his 'spare' time from working his full time job.

And so it went. With me having lived in 5 different family homes by the time I first left home at the age of 19. With each one a little nicer and by and large better located than the preceeding one. And the old man building the first two himself. Plus 2 investment properties. And buying a 'fixer upper' and renovating it. Oh, and also working away from home regularly 'in the season' - So he could earn better money than in his usual full time job.

The first time he worked away that I know of, we lived in a tent - Pitched by the side of a railway line. It had a meat safe in it (as in no refrigerator) and kero lamps plus mum had sewed flour bags together for the floor. And mum would flag down the occasional passing steam locomotive to get a bucket of boiling water to give me a warm bath - She and dad had cold ones I assume.

We weren't 'flash' big city dwellers. My old man started work in a brick works when he was 12. He did not believe in debt. But he was a bloody hard worker. And mum was very supportive of him in every possible way.

So my olds simply never ever had any debt on any property ever to 'pay off' to the very best of my knowledge. (And anyway, I doubt the banks would have been willing to lend him any money back in those days when he was first getting his start regardless.)
Edited by herbie, 30 Aug 2017, 12:08 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Bardon
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Mixed feelings on real estate 'bubble'

When it comes to the "bubble" I guess the positions can best be summarized by these two commentators each at different ends of the spectrum:

Commentator 1 - I wouldn't describe it as a bubble, I think that's perhaps a bit of an overstatement. the market never stays the same, it rises and falls constantly year in, year out, it goes through rises and falls and really that's all its doing, its going through its cycle.

or

Commentator 2 - The most pessimistic predictions are that the property market will fall by 22 per cent across Australia in the next three years. Researchers at UBS Warburg created hysteria last month when they predicted prices in Melbourne would fall a massive 36 per cent. But they've also created fierce debate - in political, economic and property circles.

I am firmly in the Commentator 1 camp.



http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2002/s705883.htm

Edited by Bardon, 30 Aug 2017, 11:45 AM.
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