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4 Corners Housing Bubble thread; To be broadcast 21st August 8:30pm
Topic Started: 15 Aug 2017, 03:08 PM (12,975 Views)
Rufus
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Bardon
15 Aug 2017, 08:12 PM
Apparently Jonathon Tepper has given them a shocking account where he reveals how over exposed Australian banks are to residential mortgages. Its going to be a real nail biter alright.
Yep Tepper is absolutely sure that the Australian residential mortgage market will blow up.
I crossed tweets with him some time back. When I suggested that the loan quality is a lot better than he thinks it is he immediately muted me, he just didn't want to hear one word that wasn't aligned with his bias.

On the other hand he absorbs everything that Soos and Lindsay David feed him without question, and they have zero data that supports their views except some anecdotal evidence from Denise Brailey that is years old. She is also a borderline unhinged wanna be politician.

I don't think his shorts will live up to expectations.
It's an interesting world.

It appears others have told him much the same thing.

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Edited by Rufus, 15 Aug 2017, 09:51 PM.
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Bardon
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Rufus
15 Aug 2017, 09:26 PM
I don't think his shorts will live up to expectations.
I think he is a great example of the type of person that Australian property bears cling on to in a desperate attempt to try and establish some kind of credibility. The irony is lost on them of course.
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Chris
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Bardon
15 Aug 2017, 10:43 PM
I think he is a great example of the type of person that Australian property bears cling on to in a desperate attempt to try and establish some kind of credibility. The irony is lost on them of course.
But never on you hey barfon?

Gish you are amazing, another plain altogether you Rat, Ruffy and all
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herbie
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Chris
15 Aug 2017, 11:14 PM
But never on you hey barfon?

Gish you are amazing, another plain altogether you Rat, Ruffy and all
It's not your average ma and pa property investor that brings national economies unstuck Chris.

It's your pieces of filth 'smarty' stock and bond market speculators (like Tepper and his followers) who do that. (Along with their kindred spirits in the dirty f***ing predatory banks.)

I'm intensely 'dis-fond' of them - Whilst also accepting that Yes, in a free market capitalist system, they have every right to be what they are - Providing they perform their 'plays' legally.

With that being 'life' - And the single most over-riding reason I personally choose to invest in housing.

Sheesh - F*** having any more exposure to those dirty slimy cnts than a man absolutely must.

Hmmm - You get them to tidy up their dirty actively predatory speculative game; And then I'll just maybe consider having an IP or two less than I do ...

PS: Just tha off chance I've not mentioned it before (??? ... :) ), I'm NOT a big fan of stocks ... :)
Edited by herbie, 16 Aug 2017, 12:08 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Ex BP Golly
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Rufus
15 Aug 2017, 09:26 PM


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Most Australian don't think that banks corruption is a bad thing Johnathon.

It is weird!
herbie
15 Aug 2017, 11:41 PM
It's not your average ma and pa property investor that brings national economies unstuck Chris.

It's your pieces of filth 'smarty' stock and bond market speculators (like Tepper and his followers) who do that. (Along with their kindred spirits in the dirty f***ing predatory banks.)

I'm intensely 'dis-fond' of them - Whilst also accepting that Yes, in a free market capitalist system, they have every right to be what they are - Providing they perform their 'plays' legally.

With that being 'life' - And the single most over-riding reason I personally choose to invest in housing.

Sheesh - F*** having any more exposure to those dirty slimy cnts than a man absolutely must.

Hmmm - You get them to tidy up their dirty actively predatory speculative game; And then I'll just maybe consider having an IP or two less than I do ...

PS: Just tha off chance I've not mentioned it before (??? ... :) ), I'm NOT a big fan of stocks ... :)
If I remember right Herbie, it was the Holmes a Courts, Bonds and other WA mining magnates magnets that did the damage via overleveraging a resources boom if I remember right?

Right?

Who could forget WA Inc?
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 16 Aug 2017, 12:44 AM.
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herbie
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Ex BP Golly
16 Aug 2017, 12:36 AM
If I remember right Herbie, it was the Holmes a Courts, Bonds and other WA mining magnates magnets that did the damage via overleveraging a resources boom if I remember right?

Right?

Who could forget WA Inc?
They were small fish Golly - Minnows compared to the huge predatory Behemoths that prowl the nations of the earth today.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Rufus
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Rufus
15 Aug 2017, 09:26 PM
It appears others have told him much the same thing.

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Jonathan is still concerned. He does have a point about other issues with the CBA.

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Edited by Rufus, 16 Aug 2017, 09:39 AM.
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GloomBoomDoom
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herbie
15 Aug 2017, 03:49 PM
If they start chatting about "The Australian Housing Bubble" I don't think I'll have much interest.

Tho Yeah sure, if they call it something like "Sydney and Melbourne's Issues For Their First Home Buyers" I just might be interested in hearing the highlights.
You're really trying to convince yourself that QLD somehow isn't affected by a national housing and credit bubble. Is this so you feel better about becoming financially exposed again through the young'ns? Is the 850k at risk?
MSE
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herbie
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GloomBoomDoom
16 Aug 2017, 10:27 AM
You're really trying to convince yourself that QLD somehow isn't affected by a national housing and credit bubble. Is this so you feel better about becoming financially exposed again through the young'ns? Is the 850k at risk?
If Sydney/Melbourne were to have a severe property correction, sure QLD could be affected.

How and to what extent? - I don't know.

Tho my personal feeling is that the local SEQ market is most likely to just continue primarily being impacted by local SEQ conditions. With the biggest one for us at the moment (that I see) being just how exactly the recent apartment overbuilding (particularly in the CBD) plays out.

Sheesh, if we didn't have that apartment oversupply, I might even just be thinking in terms of SEQ property prices getting a bit of a leg up from any severe Sydney/Melbourne property correction - But we DO have that apartment oversupply - So I'm not.

As to your questions:

I'm not "financially exposed through the young'ns" GBD - If necessary (and I think it's extremely unlikely to become necessary) I'd just pay their debt out. And still have 'plenty' left for me ... :)

I think the thing I'd potentially personally enjoy least tho, about any severe Sydney/Melbourne property correction, is that the RBA very well may respond by dropping interest rates further - With that presumably negatively impacting my returns on my cash ... Yet agin! - LOL
Edited by herbie, 16 Aug 2017, 11:04 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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herbie
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GloomBoomDoom
16 Aug 2017, 10:27 AM
You're really trying to convince yourself that QLD somehow isn't affected by a national housing and credit bubble. Is this so you feel better about becoming financially exposed again through the young'ns? Is the 850k at risk?
Just another one on this GBD, it's almost like there's some sort of 'desperation' amongst bears to believe that the property owners of the nation have borrowed irresponsibly?

Maybe they have? Maybe they haven't?

But your comment did cause me do some rough sums on 'the youngs' combined overall situation:

PPOR P&I loan: $120K
IP P&I loans: A total of $335K
So a total of about $455K in P&I loans all up
Oh plus a car loan for maybe another $25K
But anyway, certainly no more than $500K all up

Gross annual Income (excluding net rent): $250K
With another worker to 'come on line' in about a yr (hopefully) adding maybe another $65K pa (should they choose to 'play the game' as part of the family)

Hmmm - Current total equity in their properties: Around $880K maybe

But anyway, a damn long way from what even an old conservative like me would think of as irresponsible borrowing.

A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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