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4 Corners Housing Bubble thread; To be broadcast 21st August 8:30pm
Topic Started: 15 Aug 2017, 03:08 PM (12,959 Views)
Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
23 Aug 2017, 08:00 PM
Perhaps you can direct me to some academic texts which describes this force of nature?
What makes you believe the property cycle is a 'force of nature'?
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
23 Aug 2017, 08:07 PM
What makes you believe the property cycle is a 'force of nature'?
Your words.

After all, you are the evangelist for this theory and the way you describe it its like waiting for rain which is the epitome of a natural force.

You say there is a property cycle but admit that it is governed entirely by economic fundamentals.

In fact, to predict the behavior of the property market you must first predict the behavior of economic fundamentals.

After that its just rainmaking.

At some point in the future Perth property will increase in value and you will claim to have been right and that its all part of the cycle.

The rest of us will know that it is nothing of the sort and merely a result of and function of a change to underlying economic fundamentals.



Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
23 Aug 2017, 08:13 PM
Your words.
No, I was referring to your post where you said "Perhaps you can direct me to some academic texts which describes this force of nature?".

In my view it's the complete opposite - i.e. the cycle is entirely driven by human induced changes to underlying economic fundamentals (not nature).

So I'm asking why you believe it's a force of nature?
Edited by Rat, 23 Aug 2017, 08:18 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
23 Aug 2017, 08:16 PM
No, I was referring to your post where you said "Perhaps you can direct me to some academic texts which describes this force of nature?".

In my view it's the complete opposite - i.e. it is entirely driven by humans, not nature. So I'm asking why you believe it's a force of nature?
Well I have asked you a series of questions about your crack pot theory which you have ignored so why would I answer yours?

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
23 Aug 2017, 08:18 PM
Well I have asked you a series of questions about your crack pot theory which you have ignored so why would I answer yours?
I answered your questions. Which question do you believe I ignored?
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Dean.Collins
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So on the whole......i'm 50/50 about this, on one hand it was full of gotcha journalism and the most ludicrous cherry picking of facts. Sydney is not Ireland or Detroit - happy to discuss specifics on why but you've probably already heard them from me before.


On the other hand......its good to give the general public warnings but lets face it when you have the ANZ pensioner who receives a cold call and 48 hours later is signing of mortgage on an investment property in QLD with no income....seriously what was she thinking?


She deserved to be separated from her money (a fool and their money)....and no amount of warnings will help her.


In addition how many investors did they film and reject before they settled on the clip of "Beavis and Butthead - Pina Colada" investors...?


Seriously if you are in your 40's and only have $300k for your retirement any actuarial table with a 4% drawdown will tell you that you have a retirement income of around $12k pa in addition to your superannuation (or in their case most likely pension) or about $115pw per person.


You arent going to be travelling around the world drinking pina coladas on $115pw.
(There is a longer post about Beavis and Butthead on propertychat.com.au and details on their financials are on the Binvested website).

Yes Syd and Melbourne is expensive.

Yes property investors overspent on WA/QLD properties driven up by FIFO mining workers......but if people invested in mining company equities.....they have also fallen.

Are mining company investors also crying into their beer that they over invested on margin and got a margin call??

Nope.

Likewise.....neither should property investors be crying foul and claiming ..."the banks mislead me your honor and i was a poor naive victim of their trickery".

One final point i do want to make that "wasnt really highlighted by Four Corners" about our industry experts.

Why do you think they are appearing on TV talking about the future potential crash of Aussie property".....
This below was from a 2016 post

"The dream run is about to end. Price to income ratios are very high,” Mr Tepper said. “Anyone with a pulse could essentially get a mortgage,” he said.​

Hempton discloses has a short on the Australian housing market. Tepper has told 60 minutes, he will probably do the same.​"

Yep Jonathan Tepper – founder of London-based research house Variant Perception, known for his bearish views on the housing market has a short position and will make money when the Aussie market crashes.....

Lol btw as the market has gone up at least 10.9% in the last 12 months....Mr Tepper is most likely currently underwater on his own investment...........

But hey what do i know.
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Blondie girl
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Dean.Collins
24 Aug 2017, 02:25 PM
So on the whole......i'm 50/50 about this, on one hand it was full of gotcha journalism and the most ludicrous cherry picking of facts. Sydney is not Ireland or Detroit - happy to discuss specifics on why but you've probably already heard them from me before.


On the other hand......its good to give the general public warnings but lets face it when you have the ANZ pensioner who receives a cold call and 48 hours later is signing of mortgage on an investment property in QLD with no income....seriously what was she thinking?


She deserved to be separated from her money (a fool and their money)....and no amount of warnings will help her.


In addition how many investors did they film and reject before they settled on the clip of "Beavis and Butthead - Pina Colada" investors...?


Seriously if you are in your 40's and only have $300k for your retirement any actuarial table with a 4% drawdown will tell you that you have a retirement income of around $12k pa in addition to your superannuation (or in their case most likely pension) or about $115pw per person.


You arent going to be travelling around the world drinking pina coladas on $115pw.
(There is a longer post about Beavis and Butthead on propertychat.com.au and details on their financials are on the Binvested website).

Yes Syd and Melbourne is expensive.

Yes property investors overspent on WA/QLD properties driven up by FIFO mining workers......but if people invested in mining company equities.....they have also fallen.

Are mining company investors also crying into their beer that they over invested on margin and got a margin call??

Nope.

Likewise.....neither should property investors be crying foul and claiming ..."the banks mislead me your honor and i was a poor naive victim of their trickery".

One final point i do want to make that "wasnt really highlighted by Four Corners" about our industry experts.

Why do you think they are appearing on TV talking about the future potential crash of Aussie property".....
This below was from a 2016 post

"The dream run is about to end. Price to income ratios are very high,” Mr Tepper said. “Anyone with a pulse could essentially get a mortgage,” he said.​

Hempton discloses has a short on the Australian housing market. Tepper has told 60 minutes, he will probably do the same.​"

Yep Jonathan Tepper – founder of London-based research house Variant Perception, known for his bearish views on the housing market has a short position and will make money when the Aussie market crashes.....

Lol btw as the market has gone up at least 10.9% in the last 12 months....Mr Tepper is most likely currently underwater on his own investment...........

But hey what do i know.
A summary that says it all really.

I had enough by the butthead couple finished talking about the ultimate pina colada..

I had enough reading naïve old lady that was a danger to herself financially

Selective journalism full stop.


Rufus
22 Aug 2017, 08:21 PM
Her story didn't add up either. How could she mortgage her own house that was paid off, and buy another one, and stand to lose both.
That makes no sense. If she bought poorly she still could have sold for a loss and came out with a larger debt, but still keeping her own home.

If she is losing both there must be gross incompetence in buying and managing property, or something which they didn't bother telling us. That outcome isn't normal.
I noticed her house number was number 4.

The Chinese will run away from that.......

Poor investigative journalism.
Edited by Blondie girl, 24 Aug 2017, 02:57 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Ex BP Golly
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Blondie girl
24 Aug 2017, 02:50 PM
.



I noticed her house number was number 4.

The Chinese will run away from that.......

Poor investigative journalism.
Says it all about the bubble doesn't it.

She should have made a better decision 25 years ago than to buy number 4.

Idiot! Deserves everything she gets.

She
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Blondie girl
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I'm not a believer in reading too much in analysts, have looked but I never wanted to get too in depth. The reality is buying what one can afford, understand the good, bad and ugly.

In WA a percentage of people were overconfident and overestimated their financial positions even when stuff was great, when things went down they struggled.
Simple as that.
Ex BP Golly
24 Aug 2017, 03:03 PM
Says it all about the bubble doesn't it.

She should have made a better decision 25 years ago than to buy number 4.

Idiot! Deserves everything she gets.

She
The bubble does get overused.
Depends
She had her own personal crap bubble that was her own doing and one needs to not trust those trying to sell the dream that its all lollipops.

One of my props is a number 4, its been awesome!
Not scared by superstition of another culture.
Edited by Blondie girl, 24 Aug 2017, 03:13 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Dean.Collins
24 Aug 2017, 02:25 PM
So on the whole......i'm 50/50 about this, on one hand it was full of gotcha journalism and the most ludicrous cherry picking of facts. Sydney is not Ireland or Detroit - happy to discuss specifics on why but you've probably already heard them from me before.


On the other hand......its good to give the general public warnings but lets face it when you have the ANZ pensioner who receives a cold call and 48 hours later is signing of mortgage on an investment property in QLD with no income....seriously what was she thinking?


She deserved to be separated from her money (a fool and their money)....and no amount of warnings will help her.


In addition how many investors did they film and reject before they settled on the clip of "Beavis and Butthead - Pina Colada" investors...?


Seriously if you are in your 40's and only have $300k for your retirement any actuarial table with a 4% drawdown will tell you that you have a retirement income of around $12k pa in addition to your superannuation (or in their case most likely pension) or about $115pw per person.


You arent going to be travelling around the world drinking pina coladas on $115pw.
(There is a longer post about Beavis and Butthead on propertychat.com.au and details on their financials are on the Binvested website).

Yes Syd and Melbourne is expensive.

Yes property investors overspent on WA/QLD properties driven up by FIFO mining workers......but if people invested in mining company equities.....they have also fallen.

Are mining company investors also crying into their beer that they over invested on margin and got a margin call??

Nope.

Likewise.....neither should property investors be crying foul and claiming ..."the banks mislead me your honor and i was a poor naive victim of their trickery".

One final point i do want to make that "wasnt really highlighted by Four Corners" about our industry experts.

Why do you think they are appearing on TV talking about the future potential crash of Aussie property".....
This below was from a 2016 post

"The dream run is about to end. Price to income ratios are very high,” Mr Tepper said. “Anyone with a pulse could essentially get a mortgage,” he said.​

Hempton discloses has a short on the Australian housing market. Tepper has told 60 minutes, he will probably do the same.​"

Yep Jonathan Tepper – founder of London-based research house Variant Perception, known for his bearish views on the housing market has a short position and will make money when the Aussie market crashes.....

Lol btw as the market has gone up at least 10.9% in the last 12 months....Mr Tepper is most likely currently underwater on his own investment...........

But hey what do i know.
The point that i raise and have yet to hear anyone else raise is the "cost" of home ownership.

So if property raises 7& nominal, ok, but what is the base line cost of that?

7%???

So property has to rise or who covers the interest, rates, improvements, land tax, stamp duty, mortgage insurance, insurance and agents fees???

I like a goose that lays a golden egg, but what does it cost to keep said goose??

But one one ever touched on this question...





Foxy
25 Aug 2017, 11:08 AM
The point that i raise and have yet to hear anyone else raise is the "cost" of home ownership.

So if property raises 7% nominal, ok, but what is the base line cost of that?

7%???

So property has to rise or who covers the interest, rates, improvements, land tax, stamp duty, mortgage insurance, insurance and agents fees???

I like a goose that lays a golden egg, but what does it cost to keep said goose??

But one one ever touched on this question...



Lets get real...
Edited by Foxy, 25 Aug 2017, 11:20 AM.
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