I doubt that mate "when anyone with eyes could see, in the vacant skyscrapers and housing estates around them, evidence of bank loans that were not merely bad but insane."
Source: Page 98 (and up towards the top of it) of that little tome I mentioned that I just VERY recently plucked off my bookcase for 'old time's sake' ... My point was that if you'd not read it you might find it interesting.
Though you've read it - Same as me. So that's nice.
That's the thing - when the vacancy level was obvious in Ireland, it crashed.
There's a lot of vacant properties here (in Melbourne anyway) but there are plenty of money launderers that keep the party going. Don't get me wrong - long may it last - but when it goes this country is going to suffer.
Ireland never had much foreign investment. In fact it was the opposite, they went out and bought London/Spain/Bulgaria.
I think the tide is turning. That is purely based on the comments section of the major news papers. There is no one defending the banks anymore - the term "unquestinably strong" isn't used as much.
There will of course be a correction, as there is every few years - just part of the cycle - but we're not going to see the 40% crash you dream of.
Prices will drop more that 40%
Rufus
22 Aug 2017, 09:47 PM
It's just silly to compare Australia and Ireland. Irish banks suffered capital flight and had to be nationalised, that won't happen here. Crazy comparison.
Australia will encounter Capital flight just like it did in the 1890's and 1930's
Australian Banks are Heavily reliant on Foreign Funding......
Is this the part where you tell us that Australian banks cant crash because Australia cant run out of dollars?
Yep, it is.
Same with Spain BTW - Australia is noting like Spain either. You guys must enjoy clutching at straws.
Simon_S
23 Aug 2017, 09:33 AM
Australia will encounter Capital flight just like it did in the 1890's and 1930's
Australian Banks are Heavily reliant on Foreign Funding......
That's actually just laughable. You are still clutching at the wrong straws, but please keep doing it, we find it amusing. No wonder b_b can't be bothered talking to you anymore. People follow your advice at their peril.
Same with Spain BTW - Australia is noting like Spain either. You guys must enjoy clutching at straws. That's actually just laughable. You are still clutching at the wrong straws, but please keep doing it, we find it amusing. No wonder b_b can't be bothered talking to you anymore. People follow your advice at their peril.
A structural characteristic of the Australian economy is that domestic investment exceeds domestic saving. The gap is the current account deficit. Our current account deficit is strongly correlated with off-shore borrowings by the Australian banking industry, suggesting that the banks play a major role in financing the nation’s excess of investment over domestic saving
Yes we all know that Yourself and b_b know more than the Secretary to the Treasury Ken Henry.......
Yes, Australia vs Spain makes another interesting "compare and contrast exercise".
At the end of the day, the recent Sydney up-cycle has been driven by the normal fundamentals - supply, demand and affordability. And now the up-cycle is coming to an end as those fundamentals deteriorate - i.e. strong price gains have resulted in worse affordability, construction boom has created higher supply, and APRA-driven rate increases and foreign investor controls have reduced demand. Basically a reversal of the drivers that caused the up-cycle in the first place. So Sydney will have another one of its regular cyclical corrections, while other cities like Perth will begin their up-cycles.
This is all just further evidence of the property cycle doing its thing, as it always does.
It's just silly to compare Australia and Ireland. Irish banks suffered capital flight and had to be nationalised, that won't happen here. Crazy comparison.
Yet I'm sure you have said " it's silly to say Australia's different ".......bear logic
Yet I'm sure you have said " it's silly to say Australia's different ".......bear logic
If that is bear logic it is wanting.
It's not silly to say they are different when they are different.
Come back when Australia joins the EU and uses the Euro as it's unit of currency, then I may agree with you.
In the meantime we have our own currency which we can't run out of, we can adjust our interest rates independently of other countries, our currency automatically adjusts in the exchange rate, and our government can stimulate the economy if need be as Rudd did in the GFC. What do you think the Snowy Hydro Scheme was about post WW2 - water, electricity, or creating jobs and gaining engineering expertise we didn't have at the time.
Anyone who doesn't take the differences into account is a little silly, don't you agree?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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