We're in a new paradigm, prices may stagnate for a short while but they won't collapse because the transfer of wealth has been so great that the majority can afford to ride out a recession.
Sorry Chris.......But that is just miss guided nonsense....
Have a Good Read of this and you might get a better understanding of how it will all play out.
We have passed any real chance of a tipping point, I think there is significant evidence to show the market does not require FHB to prop up the lower end. From this we now have a housing market that is not dictated by historic norms, BP calls it transmutation and his theory is correct he just farked up when he proclaimed it for Perth in 2015.
We're in a new paradigm, prices may stagnate for a short while but they won't collapse because the transfer of wealth has been so great that the majority can afford to ride out a recession.
So you're admitting the bulls were right all along.
Signs are emerging that the capital inflow from China to Australian property is slowing, but is being offset by Singaporean investors.
In the first half of this calendar year, Chinese investment in Australian real estate fell 69 per cent, compared with the same period last year.
According to Cushman & Wakefield, despite lower Chinese investment, Australian commercial real estate is on track for another robust year, with the firm's research forecasting total investment of around $30 billion for the year.
This follows reports last week that China has put the brakes on its companies pouring big money into overseas property development, issuing rules likely to have a significant impact in Australia.
James Quigley, head of capital Markets, Australia and New Zealand for Cushman & Wakefield, said in the first half of 2017, the largest source of foreign capital for Australian commercial real estate was from investors from Singapore, while Hong Kong investors were responsible for recent landmark deals in Australia and London.
The drivers of lower investment are also a range of other local factors, particularly relating to residential development.
"For example, changing market conditions, overdevelopment in some areas and efforts by Australian authorities to dampen the residential market may have contributed to the decline by Chinese investors in development sites."
We have passed any real chance of a tipping point, I think there is significant evidence to show the market does not require FHB to prop up the lower end. From this we now have a housing market that is not dictated by historic norms, BP calls it transmutation and his theory is correct he just farked up when he proclaimed it for Perth in 2015.
We're in a new paradigm, prices may stagnate for a short while but they won't collapse because the transfer of wealth has been so great that the majority can afford to ride out a recession.
There is no new paradigm. House prices will “correct”. They always have and they always will.
The only question is the magnitude of the correction. And if the correction is meaningful, wealth will not mean much - income and access to credit will be far more important.
There is no new paradigm. House prices will “correct”. They always have and they always will.
The only question is the magnitude of the correction. And if the correction is meaningful, wealth will not mean much - income and access to credit will be far more important.
You forgot to add that it will only happen in Syd and Melb otherwise ole'mate Herbies' ticker may stop.
You forgot to add that it will only happen in Syd and Melb otherwise ole'mate Herbies' ticker may stop.
Don't you worry your head too much about ya ole mate unca herbie GBD; I reckons that $850K in readies I've got'll see me scraping along OK on nice yummy Coles home brand baked beans and the occasional boiled egg for a few years at least ...
Tell ya wot tho, me little ring hole would be starting to twitch a bit if I had any significant exposure to US stocks right about now tho ...
But anyway, unless one really is a very, very, very genuine 'smarty' (which surely isn't me; or most of 'us' for that matter - IMO), at tha end of tha day we just gets ta wait and see.
But I'm a bit lazy and can't be bothered fluffing around with such stuff nowadays (having given it a shot back in about 2006 and not fared overly well; a bit like Prof Keen a couple of yrs later I guess? Tho unlike him, buying back in when it seemed my 'punt' mightn't seem to have been proving sound) - So am just a very genuine buy and hold type nowadays. (Who also attempts to add what I might see as some value at least when I can.)
For better or worse; Through thick and thin; Come what may ...
Tho with a rather reasonable cash buffer in place as well - I'd hope at least (for me and mine) ... 'Just in case' as they say.
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