Rents surge in Sydney and Melbourne - up 4.5% for the year (CoreLogic); And house prices also jump strongly in July - Melbourne prices up 16% for the year
Tweet Topic Started: 1 Aug 2017, 01:36 PM (4,373 Views)
I was talking rents nationwide as you know. Thats what the ABS data shows.
Just for the record, I think rents could and probably will go on a bit of a gallop in Sydney and Melbourne.
But the fact remains that rents have done f*** all in 5 years. Yields are a joke.
As the construction boom unwinds, barring some major change on the demand side, rents are going up.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
rents could and probably will go on a bit of a gallop in Sydney and Melbourne
Look at the title. This thread is about Sydney and Melbourne.
I post a thread titled "Rents surge in Sydney and Melbourne" and you reply with "Rents have done fck all in years mate".
Then later you claim you weren't talking about Sydney and Melbourne, and that you believe rents could actually gallop in Sydney and Melbourne.
Rents are falling in Perth and Darwin, so of course the nationwide average is going to be lower than normal. You do understand how averages work, right?
Look at the title. This thread is about Sydney and Melbourne.
Rents are falling in Perth and Darwin, so of course the nationwide average is going to be lower than normal. You do understand how averages work, right?
The market is dominated by Syd/Melb.
Rents have dont fck all there too. Look at the buiness insider chart i posted
Although that maybe about to change.
The fact that rents have increased so little (everywhere) iin the face of such high demand tells us that there is no housing shortage and that house prices in Sydney are absurd.
How about you start a thread on that?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Rents have dont fck all there too. Look at the buiness insider chart i posted
Your chart simply plots the ABS CPI index growth rates, and it shows rents rising in Sydney and Melbourne. But it's a year out of date. It only goes up to 2016.
The latest ABS data shows Sydney and Melbourne rents rising faster in 2017 than 2016.
Jun-2016 Sydney 2.2 Melbourne 1.4 Jun-2017 Sydney 2.5 Melbourne 1.7
The chart you posted uses exactly the same source as my chart below. It's the official ABS CPI Rents index.
Your chart simply plots the ABS CPI index growth rates, and it shows rents rising in Sydney and Melbourne. But it's a year out of date. It only goes up to 2016.
The latest ABS data shows Sydney and Melbourne rents rising faster in 2017 than 2016.
Jun-2016 Sydney 2.2 Melbourne 1.4 Jun-2017 Sydney 2.5 Melbourne 1.7
The chart you posted uses exactly the same source as my chart below. It's the official ABS CPI Rents index.
Why do you keep showing me your chart?
The fact of that matter is that in real terms rents in Sydney and Melbourne have been basically flat for five years.
Using your knowledge of the magical property cycle perhaps you can explain why house prices have gone to the moon but rents havent?
Its clearly not because there arent enough houses. If that was the case rents would have gone up too.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
in real terms rents in Sydney and Melbourne have been basically flat for five years.
Using your knowledge of the magical property cycle perhaps you can explain why house prices have gone to the moon but rents havent
So now you want to subtract CPI from the actual rise in rents?
Rents rarely go to the moon. They tend to track slightly above inflation and CPI over the long term. It is very rare for rents to exceed income growth by a large margin.
Over the past five years, Sydney rents have increased by 15%. Over the same period, NSW incomes are up 12% and CPI is up 10%.
So now you want to subtract CPI from the actual rise in rents?
Rents rarely go to the moon. They tend to track slightly above inflation and CPI over the long term. It is very rare for rents to exceed income growth by a large margin.
Over the past five years, Sydney rents have increased by 15%. Over the same period, NSW incomes are up 12% and CPI is up 10%.
This is a fairly normal result for rental growth.
So like I said, rents have done f*** all.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Sydney rents have increased at a fairly normal pace. Up 15% over the past five years, slightly higher than inflation and income growth. Business as usual.
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