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Empty houses destroy myth of supply and demand—prepare for a crash!
Topic Started: 25 Jul 2017, 07:53 PM (2,976 Views)
eloi75
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Rat
27 Jul 2017, 08:39 AM
I get the impression you've never filled out a census form?

A form must be filled out for each household, even if all residents are absent on the night of the census...

Q. 52 Were there any people away on the night of Tuesday, 9 August 2016 who usually live in this dwelling?
• ‘Usually live’ means the person has lived, or intends to live, at this address for a total of six months or more in 2016.
- No, no-one away - Go to 54
- Yes, someone away - Go to 53


The householder fills out the details for each normal occupier who was both present and absent on the night of the census. The person filling out the form states whether each normal occupier was present or absent that night. If all normal occupiers were away, then the dwelling is counted as being unoccupied on the night of the census. As we've already explained, 'vacant' does not mean the dwelling is always unoccupied. It just means the dwelling was unoccupied on Tuesday, 9 August 2016.

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What?????? you saying that if 3 people live in 1 house and 1 of them was away on the night that then they would classify the whole property as being vacant? hahahahahaha yeah ofcourse it means that.

Vacant means no one at all to fill out the census form, not even the pet dog was home. If your in Australia then you still have to fill out form where ever you are and you have to give details about your actual residential place. So even if your away on the night you still have to fill out a form and give details about your actuall permanent living property. Only way you dont have to fill out the forrm is if your overseas and in those cases the census bureau will use the customs passports used when leaving the country to add to the census.

So in this census of 2016 vwhen they say no one was present means no one was in australia for it.
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Rufus
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eloi75
27 Jul 2017, 10:33 AM
What?????? you saying that if 3 people live in 1 house and 1 of them was away on the night that then they would classify the whole property as being vacant? hahahahahaha yeah ofcourse it means that.

Vacant means no one at all to fill out the census form, not even the pet dog was home. If your in Australia then you still have to fill out form where ever you are and you have to give details about your actual residential place. So even if your away on the night you still have to fill out a form and give details about your actuall permanent living property. Only way you dont have to fill out the forrm is if your overseas and in those cases the census bureau will use the customs passports used when leaving the country to add to the census.

So in this census of 2016 vwhen they say no one was present means no one was in australia for it.
I don't recall the question in the last census which was electronic for the first time, but in previous times if a family was away on holidays they filled it in for the address they occupied. If that was a short stay apartment in Surfers then that's where they were, not in their house.

I would expect the electronic version to be the same, but I can't say for sure.

At any given moment in time there are a lot of families away from home for various reasons.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

eloi75
27 Jul 2017, 10:33 AM
Rat
 
If all normal occupiers were away, then the dwelling is counted as being unoccupied on the night of the census.
if 3 people live in 1 house and 1 of them was away on the night that then they would classify the whole property as being vacant
Incorrect, and the rest of your post is equally unintelligible. Something about pet dogs? I suggest you do some research before mashing the keyboard next time. I have completed the census four times, so I know how it works. I suspect you have zero experience with the census. You're probably getting your 'facts' from somewhere like Macrobusiness.
Edited by Rat, 27 Jul 2017, 11:03 AM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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zaph
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There are those that do not complete the census and therefore the house is declared vacant.
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stinkbug
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For anyone to be linking a property price crash to homes that are unoccupied on census night is desperation of the highest order.

We've been hearing about a crash since the early 2000's, it's now nearly 2018. Just how much of peoples' lives are being wasted on this stupidity?
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Rat
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stinkbug
27 Jul 2017, 11:15 AM
For anyone to be linking a property price crash to homes that are unoccupied on census night is desperation of the highest order.

We've been hearing about a crash since the early 2000's, it's now nearly 2018. Just how much of peoples' lives are being wasted on this stupidity?
Yep, when I posted on GHPC way back in 2007, this was one of the big bear claims. The 2006 census results had just been published, and as per normal there were about 10% of homes unoccupied on census night. The bears were convinced all these 'vacant' homes would suddenly flood the market and cause a crash. The bulls explained that roughly 10% of homes have been unoccupied on census night since the 1970s, and that being unoccupied on a particular night is not the same as being a 'vacant' property. But bears are incredibly dumb and can't learn from their past mistakes. They are destined to repeat this error every five years, forever.
Edited by Rat, 27 Jul 2017, 11:30 AM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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herbie
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There's all sorts of extremely valid reasons even homes in desirable locations will be unoccupied.

Just a 'for instance' from me personal past:

* Workin' away in tha minin' industry

* Got back ta tha home 'occasionally'

* Joint needed some renos

* Which I'd do when I woz back

* Not that I actually lived in it - Much easier 'n more convenient ta just lob 'n stay wif family when 'back'

* Tho handy ta have tha joint vacant so I could work on tha required renos when I woz back

* Which also give me somethin' 'constructive' ta do when I woz back - As opposed ta just drinkin' piss or watchin' vids (or wotever?)

* Plus of course, I's bin around tha traps for a while 'n knows tha minin' industry can actually just go leg up pretty much any ole time - In which case I just might've bin pretty keen ta have it back as me home for me ta reside in agin ('n ditto if I'd got a sheila I 'spose - which woz just possible back then too)

* 'N wot would've I done in either of those situations? - Lobbed 'n said ta tha tenant "Eff off; I wants me joint back - Now!" ?

Nah, just way preferable for plenty of personal reasons ta me ta keep tha joint empty at tha time - 'N anyone wot reckons I woz a cnt for doin' so, can just go 'n change their name ta Adolf Effin' Stalin - For mine ... :)

Sheesh, wot's happenin' ta personal freedoms ta make ya own choices in this nation?

'N all because that f***ed up shit hole called Sydvegas/Melvegas has some housing 'issues'??? - Gives me an effin' break! ... F*** me roan - LOL
Edited by herbie, 27 Jul 2017, 11:55 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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zaph
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stinkbug
27 Jul 2017, 11:15 AM
For anyone to be linking a property price crash to homes that are unoccupied on census night is desperation of the highest order.

We've been hearing about a crash since the early 2000's, it's now nearly 2018. Just how much of peoples' lives are being wasted on this stupidity?
I don't particularly think 'vacant' property is important in a crash.
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Tick Tock
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Was'nt there a new 5k extra cost made for investors that buy and keep apartments empty just waiting for prices to go up.

Its chump change for all the rich Chinese that have been buying these apartments. :wak:
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herbie
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Lukey
27 Jul 2017, 12:48 PM
Was'nt there a new 5k extra cost made for investors that buy and keep apartments empty just waiting for prices to go up.

Its chump change for all the rich Chinese that have been buying these apartments. :wak:
I gets tha impression lotsa young Aussies down in Sydvegas/Melvegas is too effin' flash ta wanna live in 'em anyways?

'N would rather just sit there on their big lard arses whingin' about how they can't have wot they reckons their dear ole ma 'n pa did (as in some 640 m2 block of dirt wif a standalone house on it ta accommodate them 'n their coupla sprogs within 15 ta 20 mins travel ta work in tha CBD for 3 times wotever Dad's income is) - 'N cryin' about how that's not 'fair' 'n wotnot?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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