Approximately 10% of homes have been vacant on census night for the past four decades. This has not put downward pressure on prices, because those homes are not available, and therefore do not contribute to supply. They just happened to be unoccupied on the night of the census. That doesn't mean they're unoccupied for the rest of the year. It just means the normal occupier was on holiday that night, or the house was being renovated, or transitioning between leases etc.
I don't think you actually read the article - if you did you failed to comprehend it. It presents a range of essentially indisputable facts about the data that does not support your argument one bit!
I read the article. I don't believe that 10% of homes remaining vacant will continue forever. Here are 3 reasons:
1. There is a price-point at which holiday homes will be no longer be as prevalent for future generations as they were in the past. 2. Investors are not static. While the giddy days of capital growth may have justified keeping homes vacant for a while, slowing growth will cause many of those investments to either be sold and/or put back into the rental pool. 3. Governments are already making moves to tax vacant homes at a higher rate.
So I believe the net effect is that rental supply will increase from here on out.
It's like the bears can't get their heads around the fact life doesn't stop on census night - people still work, go out to dinner and do all kinds of things.
It's not a snap shot of housing like they want to believe.
'N yeah PS: They's also bitchin' about us ole f***s livin' in homes wot they reckons got too many bedrooms for us.
Well, I reckons I need one ta sleep in meself; Plus another one ta doss tha occasional mate down in when he comes 'round ta get on tha piss; 'N one ta just generally store me crap in - Given me Lounge Room 'n dinin' table is actually me Office - Given I's had ta devote that much space ta layin' out out all me paperwork wot needs ta be done ta keep tha nasty greedy money grubbin' little cnts gettin' any more than is necessary of me income inta their nasty greedy money grubbin' little cnts fists thru wotever newfound rocket scientist schemes they dream up ta tax me.
Oh plus an absolute minimum of one carport for me ute, 'n a very damn decent size shed I stores all tha crap I as a landlord wot pretty much does his own R&M 'n improvements in, ta keep all youse whinging, moaning, idle little loafers livin' ya self indulgent little lives ta spend up big 'n keep tha nation's unproductive consumer economy tickin' over whilst just basically doin' nothin' useful or productive/constructive yaselves 'cept havin' a bit of a whinge on social media 'n just maybes tha odd share trade maybes? - BLAT!
Not that I's complainin' like - But just sayin'.
Hmmm, but anyways, there simple ain't f*** all 3 bed, 1 car, big shed joints available I can see - 'Cept tha one I's got (in bumf*** - Which is worth squat) - 'N until there is I ain't goin' nowhere ('less me health fails me).
So sod all youse nasty greedy pushy self styled needy money grubbin' totally self focused 'n absorbed little cnts yet agin - For mine ...
Complete rubbish. This argument is brought out and dusted off every time census data is discussed or updated. Read this article today from SMH on this very topic:
* The number of "vacant"homes on census night as a proportion of total dwellings has been pretty much constant for decades. The latest census only shows a small increase compared to the last census (2011), with that increase in line with overall dwelling number increases.
* Reasons for vacant homes on census night include:
- Currently available for rent but unoccupied - In the process of changing hands due to new lease, or sale/purchase - Undergoing renovation - New dwelling completed but not yet occupied - Holiday home - Owners simply overseas or away on census night
* Interestingly, Sydney had the lowest number of "vacant" homes at 7.3%
* Highest numbers are found in traditional holiday areas (eg Shoalhaven).
So pin your crash hope to this census vacant home data if you like, but as usual, it actually doesn't indicate anything like what many bears claim it does.
You learn something new every day, but shoosh, will ya let me indulge a little further on the fantasy of a swift, one blow crash. Am not ready to wake up to plonk down that big deposit that I don't have.
You learn something new every day, but shoosh, will ya let me indulge a little further on the fantasy of a swift, one blow crash. Am not ready to wake up to plonk down that big deposit that I don't have.
Which is why ya needs a Plan B dude - If I might be so unassumin' as ta suggest ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
There is a price-point at which holiday homes will be no longer be as prevalent for future generations as they were in the past.
The thing with holiday homes is they're often in cheaper locations away from the big cities. There wouldn't be many holiday homes in Sydney or Melbourne, so your oversupply is not going to come from holiday homes.
Quote:
the giddy days of capital growth may have justified keeping homes vacant for a while
Homes kept vacant can't be negatively geared. It's rare for an investor to deliberately keep a home empty, foregoing both rental income and negative gearing benefits. Your oversupply is not going to come from here.
Quote:
Governments are already making moves to tax vacant homes at a higher rate
But these homes are not actually vacant. They just happened to be unoccupied on the night of the census, for the reasons previously explained. Most of them are occupied most of the rest of the time. There will be no higher tax rate and your oversupply is not going to come from here either.
What exactly does resident absent mean? also under repairs or alterations and demolition could simply mean that some overseas investor has stated he intends to this solely for the purpose of being allowed to invest in australia. After 4 years they simply just sell the property at a profit hopefully, without actually doing anything to it and just leaving it vacant.
Rat
26 Jul 2017, 11:17 PM
The thing with holiday homes is they're often in cheaper locations away from the big cities. There wouldn't be many holiday homes in Sydney or Melbourne, so your oversupply is not going to come from holiday homes.
Homes kept vacant can't be negatively geared. It's rare for an investor to deliberately keep a home empty, foregoing both rental income and negative gearing benefits. Your oversupply is not going to come from here.
But these homes are not actually vacant. They just happened to be unoccupied on the night of the census, for the reasons previously explained. Most of them are occupied most of the rest of the time. There will be no higher tax rate and your oversupply is not going to come from here either.
my understanding is that if you where absent on census night that you would still have to fill out the census either earlier or later ( with a fine ofcourse). So they would still be accounted for and if they didnt fill out the census before or after then they would be definately absent and never living there ( speculators)
my understanding is that if you where absent on census night that you would still have to fill out the census either earlier or later ( with a fine ofcourse). So they would still be accounted for and if they didnt fill out the census before or after then they would be definately absent and never living there ( speculators)
I get the impression you've never filled out a census form?
A form must be filled out for each household, even if all residents are absent on the night of the census...
Q. 52 Were there any people away on the night of Tuesday, 9 August 2016 who usually live in this dwelling? • ‘Usually live’ means the person has lived, or intends to live, at this address for a total of six months or more in 2016. - No, no-one away - Go to 54 - Yes, someone away - Go to 53
The householder fills out the details for each normal occupier who was both present and absent on the night of the census. The person filling out the form states whether each normal occupier was present or absent that night. If all normal occupiers were away, then the dwelling is counted as being unoccupied on the night of the census. As we've already explained, 'vacant' does not mean the dwelling is always unoccupied. It just means the dwelling was unoccupied on Tuesday, 9 August 2016.
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