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22 Hong Kong houses could fit in an Australian house
Topic Started: 1 Jul 2017, 10:07 AM (5,458 Views)
Rufus
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2 Jul 2017, 06:08 PM
There are some interesting observations to be taken from the thread here, and some interesting things to consider. Firstly we see the size comparison for some hk residencies compared to our own, and some comments reguarding population and area size also compared to our own.

And we often see the comments on here about a higher population equating to higher prices. And looking at hk, or Sydney or Melbourne for that matter, they seem to play out along the lines of these comments. But when we look at the US by comparison, the argument that its not the rising population, its wheather you have jobs for these people seems to ring true. Not only have US rates been near zero for almost a decade, but the population has grown by around 22.5 million people over this time, equivalent to our entire population, on an area of land that is not really much bigger than our own. Yet since the gfc, and extented period of near zero rates, and the population growth, only a handfull of capitals have exceeded their previous highs, and not by much, with the majority still below the prices of ten or more years ago.

Why has the population argument not worked for prices in the US ?

Would it be more to do with population growth, or jobs and wages ?



It does hold true for the USA if you refine your search term for a city with a large population and it's a desirable city to live in.

You will find that a lot of US cities have a much smaller population than you probably expect, and some are anything but desirable cities due to issues such as crime rates, racial tensions, high land taxes, crappy weather, & poor local economies, or a mixture of all of the above.

Suggest you look on the list of the worlds most desirable cities to see where they lie.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Jimbo
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2 Jul 2017, 06:08 PM
There are some interesting observations to be taken from the thread here, and some interesting things to consider. Firstly we see the size comparison for some hk residencies compared to our own, and some comments reguarding population and area size also compared to our own.

And we often see the comments on here about a higher population equating to higher prices. And looking at hk, or Sydney or Melbourne for that matter, they seem to play out along the lines of these comments. But when we look at the US by comparison, the argument that its not the rising population, its wheather you have jobs for these people seems to ring true. Not only have US rates been near zero for almost a decade, but the population has grown by around 22.5 million people over this time, equivalent to our entire population, on an area of land that is not really much bigger than our own. Yet since the gfc, and extented period of near zero rates, and the population growth, only a handfull of capitals have exceeded their previous highs, and not by much, with the majority still below the prices of ten or more years ago.

Why has the population argument not worked for prices in the US ?

Would it be more to do with population growth, or jobs and wages ?



You have to look at all things at the same time.

Wage growth improves the ability pay a mortage, lending conditions can help or hinder.

Supply and demand play their part as well as building costs, unemployment and market sentiment.

Population growth is another part of the mix along with the global economy, exchange rates etc.

Bulls and bears alike will take one factor on its own, spruik it to the max and claim that the next big boom/bust is just around the corner.

Today, HK prices are being cited as an indication of where Sydney will be in 10 years time. Next week, someone will compare the price of a three bed detached in Combe Martin on Exmoor in England with the cost of a one bed unit in Cockburn next to the station.

But you can't tell the future of oranges by looking at apples.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Trollie
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Ex BP Golly
2 Jul 2017, 03:29 PM
God property investors are dumb!

The land values where 7.5 million people squeeze into 265 square kilometres of Land can't be equated with a country where 10,000,000 live on 20,000 square kilometres in its two biggest cities alone, the remaining 12,000,000 or so living on vastly greater amounts of land.

The dumb thinking being exhibited on this page would mean my land holdings would be worth $20,000,000,000.

Man, imagine using that as equity!

MAAATE!
You've missed the point as usual.
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Bardon
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2 Jul 2017, 06:08 PM
Would it be more to do with population growth, or jobs and wages ?



Its to do with a nation's wealth, with the land values taking up all of the gains made in the productive economy.
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Sydneyite
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Jimbo
2 Jul 2017, 05:32 PM
And every year, we open up more and more of it by building better roads, speeding up commutes.
Do we?? Not in Sydney mate - have you been here? The Sydney basin is surrounded / bounded by large national parks and waterways to the north and south, mountains to the west, and the Pacific ocean to the east. The "satellite" areas beyond these boundaries of Wollongong to the south, and the central coats to the north (both way beyond those afore-mentioned natural boundaries) have always been there - but the commute time + lack of local jobs is the big issue for anyone choosing to live in those areas.

While there is crap load of infrastructure currently being built (rail, freeways) in Sydney, it's only really going to give back the commute times that many outer areas used to enjoy (if we are lucky!), before 1M people odd were added to the city over the past decade or so.

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And as we continue to automate and improve communications, the need to commute to a central location will be reduced.
Been hearing this for near on 20 years - don't see it having much of an impact. Most jobs - especially technology driven jobs, and service jobs, are highly collaborative activities that require a lot of face-face time.

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We have a lot of land here. We live on a tiny fraction of it.
That is true, but de-centralisation is a much harder problem to solve than identifying "land" - otherwsie we would have done it decades ago. There are many reasons why the Australian population is highly urbanised, and this trend is only increasing at the moment, not decreasing. So while I personally would love to believe that what you are saying is true - the empirical evidence does not support this notion.
Edited by Sydneyite, 3 Jul 2017, 12:00 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Bardon
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Sydneyite
3 Jul 2017, 11:56 AM
Been hearing this for near on 20 years - don't see it having much of an impact. Most jobs - especially technology driven jobs, and service jobs, are highly collaborative activities that require a lot of face-face time.
The actual reality is that information technology is driving urbanization.

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The economic shift toward cities has been the story of the past few decades. As economist Enrico Moretti has documented, the U.S. has moved from old-line manufacturing into knowledge-based industries, leading to clustering of smart people, universities and top companies. That has shifted wealth toward college towns, tech hubs and -- most of all -- big cities.


http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/30102363/1/#new
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Matthew
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Sydneyite
3 Jul 2017, 11:56 AM
Do we?? Not in Sydney mate - have you been here? The Sydney basin is surrounded / bounded by large national parks and waterways to the north and south, mountains to the west, and the Pacific ocean to the east. The "satellite" areas beyond these boundaries of Wollongong to the south, and the central coats to the north (both way beyond those afore-mentioned natural boundaries) have always been there - but the commute time + lack of local jobs is the big issue for anyone choosing to live in those areas.

While there is crap load of infrastructure currently being built (rail, freeways) in Sydney, it's only really going to give back the commute times that many outer areas used to enjoy (if we are lucky!), before 1M people odd were added to the city over the past decade or so.


Been hearing this for near on 20 years - don't see it having much of an impact. Most jobs - especially technology driven jobs, and service jobs, are highly collaborative activities that require a lot of face-face time.


That is true, but de-centralisation is a much harder problem to solve than identifying "land" - otherwsie we would have done it decades ago. There are many reasons why the Australian population is highly urbanised, and this trend is only increasing at the moment, not decreasing. So while I personally would love to believe that what you are saying is true - the empirical evidence does not support this notion.
It isn't true in Perth either. Or any other city in Australia to my knowledge. In Perth we have a single 2 or in part 3 lane road feeding monkeys into the metropolis from far flung shitholes like Warnbro in the south or Alkimos in the north. Every year we add more monkeys into these shitholes yet the size of the roads remain the same. The places where employment are remain unchanged as well.

Accordingly the commute is longer, not shorter.

And while a very select few can "telecommute" to work that is not a viable option for 99.5% of the working population. Sadly teachers, doctors, nurses, dentists, warehouse employees, retail employees, sales people, fitters, turners, welders, electricians, plumbers, bank employees etc etc etc all have to put on pants every day and join the grind to their place of employment.

Like most things Dimshit opines on this is just another example of his stupidity.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
3 Jul 2017, 03:25 PM
Every year we add more monkeys into these shitholes yet the size of the roads remain the same. The places where employment are remain unchanged as well.
So the Kwinana Freeway still ends at Canning Bridge then does it?

Twat.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
3 Jul 2017, 03:51 PM
So the Kwinana Freeway still ends at Canning Bridge then does it?

Twat.
As per usual Dimshit you miss the point.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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newjez
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I have a friend from Hong Kong and he tells me he is getting increasingly disappointed with the place. Cost of real estate has become ridiculous, and that is affecting the quality of food in the restaurants. He recently complained he couldn't get a decent meal anywhere.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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