BIS Oxford Economics reports says Perth property market will rise
PERTH home prices have bottomed out and will start to rise — albeit slowly — from next year, while Sydney property is about to go in reverse, a new housing forecast predicts.
Modelling by research group BIS Oxford Economics shows the typical price of houses in Perth won’t change in 2017-18, but will inch up a total of 3 per cent from 2018-20.
This means today’s median-priced house, at $540,000, would increase $15,000 over the next three years to be worth about $555,000 by June 2020 — still 23 per cent below the 2007 peak.
Perth’s median unit price will drop one per cent over the three years to $400,000.
BIS analyst Angie Zigomanis said mining investment was expected to bottom out in the next financial year, with the excess housing supply also approaching a peak.
“Our view is that Perth’s median house price has, or will shortly, bottom out,” Mr Zigomanis said.
“Having said that, any recovery will still be very slow and by 2020, we are only expecting a 3 per cent rise from this low, which won’t even keep up with inflation. The economy and employment growth aren’t expected to strengthen quickly and migration inflows will continue to be low.”
By comparison, Sydney’s typical home prices, which have shot up more than 80 per cent over the past five years, will drop roughly 5 per cent over the next two years, before a slight rebound in 2020.
Mr Zigomanis said the forecast for Sydney was a temporary slump, not a US-style crash.
The shift in Australia’s biggest city was due to weakening demand from investors, who are finding it increasingly difficult to get loans.
Hobart is the State capital forecast to see the biggest house price rise at 11 per cent, followed by Brisbane (7 per cent), Melbourne (5 per cent) and Adelaide (2 per cent). The median unit price will drop in every big capital, apart from Adelaide.
Mr Zigomanis said the boom in apartment construction meant house and unit markets across Australia would be affected in different ways.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Could Perth prices have already reached a peak which will never be exceeded ?
When the future shows our wages need to keep falling and that jobs will just keep dissapearing with either cheaper foreign labour or computerized automation or both.
I read yesterday that the minimum wage will be rising. Think it was 59 cents an hour, was the biggest or only rise in years. Some had called for double that amount. Either way the minimum wage was now 36k, earned by around 2 million Australians and described as living below the poverty line.
Many new government jobs programs organise work for individuals or groups for companies but pay what is called training wages that are below minimum wages and this goes on for months. A mates daughter started part time work in a supermarket recently and is only 15 or 16. Again they put her on training wages for what is months I believe. I worked at kmart part time when I was 16, I dont ever remember getting training wages. These people usually get fed up with the poor pay and leave, opening the door for the next lot of 'trainies'.
And while those moron politicians keep increasing their already way more than enough pay packets for doing nothing, they are decreasing penalty rates and the like for the REAL workers out there. I am pretty much over this disgusting type of shit.
Government employees need to be cut by around half, as do most of their paypackets, if not by more.The whole thing is a disgusting farce while they leech the little guy and sit on their arse and do nothing meaningfull but take more rorts and perks from the real Australian taxpayers.
And my trip to the local Westfields now leaves me feeling like I have just visited India.
Just glad I got to grow up when I did. Sure many feel the same and know exactly what I am talking about. You know, all the things we cannot talk about today, the reasons progress downhill is thriving.
That's a nominal number as you well know. Real terms will be a bit more.
Plus, that number is for the houses which have sold.
Currently there are 35% more properties for sale than in the same week three years ago (June 2014).
Seems that quite a few people are "motivated" enough to sell in a falling market.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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