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Nathan Birch tells his sheeple "sell half of your portfolio"; Will we see disorderly rush to the exit?
Topic Started: 24 Jun 2017, 03:49 PM (4,538 Views)
Tyson
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Simon_S
26 Jun 2017, 12:18 PM



Its not a Comfortable Gamble because hes Hedging as you say......
It's comfortable now that he's got a lower LVR. If he was gambling with a high LVR that wouldn't be comfortable.

By lowering his LVR he's hedged his bets by giving himself a more comfortable gamble rather than his all in approach he's had in the past.

Now if the market crashed by 20% or so, he's still fine financially. If the market continues to go up another 20%, then he hasn't lost out on that potential growth either.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 12:50 PM

By lowering his LVR he's hedged his bets by giving himself a more comfortable gamble rather than his all in approach he's had in the past.

Now if the market crashed by 20% or so
Hes still heavily in Debt in an Over Inflated Asset Class.

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Now if the market crashed by 20% or so


Not if but when......20% will be just a start........This has years to run.

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Tyson
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Simon_S
26 Jun 2017, 01:56 PM
Hes still heavily in Debt in an Over Inflated Asset Class.




Not if but when......20% will be just a start........This has years to run.
Based on his qualifications, debt level and current net worth, I think he still comes out on top either way. The market probably won't crash more than 20% overnight, and I imagine people in his situation will be selling out earlier than mum and dad investors since for him, his company would dramatically reduce its profits and he can't risk losing much money on his property with no income. Considering I think he was working in retail prior to this, even walking away with a few million is a huge win for him even though it's a big paper loss. So yeah I personally think Nathan will be fine either way as he'll be better off than had he not invested in property at all.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 02:33 PM
The market probably won't crash more than 20% overnight

So yeah I personally think Nathan will be fine either way as he'll be better off than had he not invested in property at all.
Do you think Crashes only happen overnight?

Maybe......Maybe not.....
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Tyson
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Simon_S
26 Jun 2017, 02:48 PM
Do you think Crashes only happen overnight?

Maybe......Maybe not.....
No, I don't believe crashes only happen overnight. Being in the short term trading game you'd understand that you can't get every trade right every time. No matter whether you're the best trader in the world or not. However good traders cut their losses early when they misjudged, they sell quickly and reinvest in something else rather than holding on and hoping the price will turn. It's a common strategy that mathematically makes more sense. In that instance it's the instant price drop that affects the trader, not the long term price drop. That's what I refer to when talking about an overnight crash because property investors also have the luxury of cutting their losses and getting out early.
Edited by Tyson, 26 Jun 2017, 03:06 PM.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 03:05 PM
No, I don't believe crashes only happen overnight.

Good because Bear markets can last years and decades depending on asset class.

Property Investors here have never seen a Real Crash in Asset values.......
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Matthew
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Ex BP Golly
25 Jun 2017, 03:58 PM
Matthew
25 Jun 2017, 01:20 PM
Per usual you have missed the forrest due to your obsession with a single tree.

Read the article again (or possibly for the first time) you dumb f***
I read it you gullible drongo
If you read it you clearly didn't understand it.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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