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Nathan Birch tells his sheeple "sell half of your portfolio"; Will we see disorderly rush to the exit?
Topic Started: 24 Jun 2017, 03:49 PM (4,540 Views)
Simon_S
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herbie
25 Jun 2017, 10:55 PM
T'was a bit of a struggles tho Simons -
Yeah.....keeping your story straight?

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herbie
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Simon_S
25 Jun 2017, 11:38 PM
Yeah.....keeping your story straight?
Troll ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Sydneyite
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Chris
25 Jun 2017, 05:36 PM
He says he is holding 36% debt and you believe him, there are no financials to substantiate his claims.

Besides a 15-30% drip compounded over the current valuations might turn 36% into 70-80% or worse.

So you think he's genius but you have nothing to base it on, which makes you an absolute genius
Not sure exactly what you are trying to say? Or what your maths is based on? Bottom line is that the values of his property would have to fall by 65% for all equity to be wiped. A 30% fall in values would result in 50% LVR.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Tyson
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Chris
25 Jun 2017, 05:36 PM
He says he is holding 36% debt and you believe him, there are no financials to substantiate his claims.

Besides a 15-30% drip compounded over the current valuations might turn 36% into 70-80% or worse.

So you think he's genius but you have nothing to base it on, which makes you an absolute genius
Whether or not you believe him is irrelevant to the fact that what he says could be entirely possible.

Maybe you bears need to address him as a genius now. You all have been calling him an idiot for years, he's been buying property in what is now deemed as the 'low' and he's selling in what all you bears deem as the 'high'. Now I'm no genius, but buying in the low and selling in the high sounds like most successful investment strategies. I'm sure if we could all go back in time 10 years, if our goal was to be successful then we'd be doing exactly the same thing he's done - assuming the only thing we could invest in 10 years ago would be property, since if I could go back in time 10 years I'd be investing in shares that grew a ridiculous amount rather than property.

Not to mention, from buying these properties he's now been heralded as an investment guru, which has enabled him to start a successful company with absolutely no relevant qualifications where he charges a ton of money to idiots who can't seem to figure out how to buy a house themselves.

It's a pretty good hustle for a young guy in my opinion, considering most you bears have achieved absolutely nothing in life in the same time frame.

Hopefully from selling some of his properties he now travels and lives life a bit since he seems like the most boring person I've ever seen, but each to their own with their lifestyle choices I guess.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 09:56 AM
Maybe you bears need to address him as a genius now.


but buying in the low and selling in the high sounds like most successful investment strategies.

If he sold out totally........which he hasn't.

Hes just smarter than you and that isn't much of an achievement.
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Tyson
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Simon_S
26 Jun 2017, 10:19 AM
If he sold out totally........which he hasn't.

Hes just smarter than you and that isn't much of an achievement.
Well he's worth more than you, so that pegs him as smarter than you too.

Looks to me like he's hedging his bets. I'm sure he's selling his highest risk properties - given the average value of his properties I would've imagined he'd have more than 20 high risk properties, so who knows, maybe he's starting with 20 but might decide to sell a few more.

With such a low LVR, he can easily afford to sit on his property and comfortably gamble as to whether prices go up or down. I'd assume that sort of risk reward calculation would be something you'd be familiar with.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 10:31 AM

Looks to me like he's hedging his bets. I'm sure he's selling his highest risk properties

With such a low LVR, he can easily afford to sit on his property and comfortably gamble as to whether prices go up or down.


You're sure hes selling his highest Risk properties.......because he told you?

LVR change rapidly in a crisis.....Comfortable gamble for a long only investor is an oxymoron.....

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Tyson
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Simon_S
26 Jun 2017, 11:27 AM


You're sure hes selling his highest Risk properties.......because he told you?

LVR change rapidly in a crisis.....Comfortable gamble for a long only investor is an oxymoron.....
I'm sure because it's the logical thing to do and given he's never sold a property of his, I'm sure he's got a few mistakes in there.

Yes, LVR changes rapidly in a crisis but what would you deem a good LVR to have today and what do you think property would crash by in a crisis?

It's not an oxymoron unless you've misunderstood what I've said. Please let me know specifically what you believe is an oxymoron since I don't see it.
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Simon_S
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Tyson
26 Jun 2017, 12:02 PM
It's not an oxymoron unless you've misunderstood what I've said. Please let me know specifically what you believe is an oxymoron since I don't see it.
Quote:
 
Comfortable gamble for a long only investor is an oxymoron


Its not a Comfortable Gamble because hes Hedging as you say......

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Rufus
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It's just amazing that all of a sudden the people who once rubbished Nathan now think he is a property guru.
Or perhaps they will believe anything that appears to advance their interests.

The index seems to have recovered from it's May issue.


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Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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