I think that those who want a crash don't really want a crash. It wouldn't be to their advantage. Twenty years of nothing growth is best for everyone.
Yes, it truly does go along the lines of the old joke about Paddy saying to Michael "Well the only thing worse than a housing bubble Mick, is a burst housing bubble" ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
You're rambling. Please make a point, if you have one.
I’ve made several points which have brought into sharp relief the flaws in your core beliefs.
It’s not hard when those beliefs are based on economic voodoo and nonsensical theories of property cycles that have no corroboration in any academic literature.
It’s also not hard when you confuse causation and correlation so liberally.
When you are ready to explain why the Perth median will be 1 million dollars in 2021 rather than 800k or 750k or 650k, I’m all ears.
If you want me to take you seriously you need to stop mouthing inanities like “ It’s all part of the cycle”.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Already explained the reasoning behind my prediction, but you had your hands over your ears as usual.
If my talking about the property cycle upsets you, then just ignore my posts.
Your voodoo nonsense about property cycles should offend anyone with an IQ over 75.
And your list does nothing of the sort. It predicts a boom.
But why would that boom, specifically, to a million dollar median? Why not 800k?
Why so specific?
Given your knowledge of and faith in the infallibility of the property cycle’ and that fact that you made the prediction, you should be able to tell us why 1 million dollars is the magic number don’t you think?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Sure, why not. I'm happy if someone else wants to predict $800K... let's say by 2020?
I'd still make a lot of money from a boom to $800K. But I do personally believe Perth prices will exceed $800K and approach $1M.
What's your own prediction?
I know you personally predicted it.
The question is why exactly a 1 million dollar median?
If you just put up that number in a fit of bravado then fine.
If there was some sort of methodology that caused you to arrive at this number rather than say 800k then do share.
Personally, I don’t do predictions with that kind of time horizon. Too far away.
All I can say is that right now and for the foreseeable, none of the conditions exist in WA to produce a boom in house prices.
I will change my mind if:
1. There is significant growth in population which will be evidenced by tightening supply in the rental market 2. Wage inflation begins; no sign of that. 3. There is a massive spike in investor demand; again unlikely based on the current fundamentals but you never know. 4. Something off the wall happens like interest rates go to zero, bank lending loosens up even further or the Governments prime the pump.
Either way, plenty of notice. All one has to do is watch the fundamentals.
That’s why me and other WA bears were right and all the WA bulls were dead wrong.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
"the notion that the Sydney median will be $1million by 2015 is la la stuff"
What was your rationale behind your prediction. I have explained the rationale behind mine, so now it's your turn.
Alright 2017 me doesn’t make predictions with 5 year time horizons.
2012 was a long time ago. Who could have predicted that interest rates would have be slashed in response to the GFC and this would start the largest effort episode of speculative investment in the Sydney property market in living memory?
You certainly didn’t. You get credit for the ‘approaching 1 million dollars’ prediction but you were as clueless as anybody else as to the unique, unprecedented circumstances that would cause it.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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