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When will the Bulls eat humble pie on WA?
Topic Started: 24 Mar 2017, 12:18 AM (19,199 Views)
Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:27 PM
More evasion.

Just admit you haven’t got anything except your harebrained ‘Property cycle’ theory.

It’s Perth turn. That’s your argument.
You're the one insisting population growth must reach a particular level before a boom can occur. What is that level?
Edited by Rat, 10 Aug 2017, 01:33 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
10 Aug 2017, 01:30 PM
You're the one insisting population growth must reach a particular level before a boom can occur. What is that level?
Why are you asking me? You are the one with intimate knowledge of the magic property cycle.

You are the one predicting that Perth’s median will double in the next four years.

Surely under that brash prediction you have some idea of the exact circumstances required to produce such a boom?

On second thoughts, I know you don’t.

Because your argument doesn’t go any deeper than its Perth’s turn.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Simon_S
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Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:36 PM
You are the one predicting that Perth’s median will double in the next four years.
OMG WTF.........Really........ :lol

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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:36 PM
Surely under that brash prediction you have some idea of the exact circumstances required to produce such a boom?
Exact circumstances? No, but I have listed the general fundamentals that will drive the Perth median house price to approach $1M in 2021.

You just don't want to listen and prefer to go "lalalala magical cycle lalalala".
Edited by Rat, 10 Aug 2017, 01:40 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
10 Aug 2017, 01:39 PM
Exact circumstances? No, but I have listed the general fundamentals that will drive the Perth median house price to approach $1M in 2021.

You just don't want to listen and prefer to go "lalalala magical cycle lalalala".
Yep, you wrote a list and when it was put under scrutiny you started rambling about what bears may or may not have said about Sydney on an internet forum 6 years ago instead of answering the questions.

So how about you have another go:

Why is your prediction a million dollar median? Why not 750k? And what will drive this? Got anything passing as a decent analysis to add to your flimsy list?

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:49 PM
Why is your prediction a million dollar median?
It's not.

Quote:
 
And what will drive this?
Already listed the reasons.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Jimbo
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Rat
9 Aug 2017, 07:23 PM
Perth today is like Sydney in 2012. Perth prices have been going backwards since 2006.
The Perth market peak was in December 2014.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Jimbo
10 Aug 2017, 02:27 PM
Rat
 
Perth today is like Sydney in 2012. Perth prices have been going backwards since 2006, while incomes have risen and interest rates have fallen. Affordability in Perth is now much better than it has been in well over a decade.
The Perth market peak was in December 2014.
In real terms, and in terms of price/income and price/rent ratio, 2006 was the peak.

Posted Image

Similar to how 2003 was the previous peak for Sydney in real terms, and in terms of price/income and price/rent ratio.

Perth today is like Sydney in 2012. Affordability in Perth is now much better than it has been in well over a decade.
Edited by Rat, 10 Aug 2017, 04:32 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
10 Aug 2017, 04:22 PM
In real terms, and in terms of price/income and price/rent ratio, 2006 was the peak.

Posted Image

Similar to how 2003 was the previous peak for Sydney in real terms, and in terms of price/income and price/rent ratio.

Perth today is like Sydney in 2012. Affordability in Perth is now much better than it has been in well over a decade.
The main problem with your cycle thesis is this.

You think it’s all pre-ordained. Like Spring follows Winter, so too will a WA boom follow this period of deflation.

But it doesn’t work like that: either the fundamentals are there or they aren’t.

Let’s say the fundamentals don’t come together as you expect and Perth merely chugs along?

Would that be the cycle at work too? Or would the cycle have been shows up as a sham theory?

You have also made a very specific call, a doubling of the median by 2020. Why?

Why not 750k?


Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 06:40 PM
You think...
Thanks for making up a story about what I think. It was interesting.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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