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When will the Bulls eat humble pie on WA?
Topic Started: 24 Mar 2017, 12:18 AM (19,200 Views)
herbie
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Veritas
9 Aug 2017, 11:05 PM
Herbs,

You will notice I started this thread.

Just thought the mighty WA bears deserved to get some credit from the bulls.

No suck luck.

Prices still falling.
I concedes defeat - For yet another night - LOL
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
9 Aug 2017, 11:13 PM
Got nothing?
Apart from the aforementioned list of fundamental reasons why Perth will boom. The fundamentals that you are never able to see because when they appear you put your hands over your ears and cry "lalalalalala magical cycle lalalalalala". And then a few months later you ask for the list of reasons again. But you don't really want to hear them, because you will never buy a house anyway. You are destined to be a lifetime renter.
Edited by Rat, 9 Aug 2017, 11:35 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
9 Aug 2017, 11:31 PM
Apart from the aforementioned list of fundamental reasons why Perth will boom. The fundamentals that you are never able to see because when they appear you put your hands over your ears and cry "lalalalalala magical cycle lalalalalala". And then a few months later you ask for the list of reasons again. But you don't really want to hear them, because you will never buy a house anyway. You are destined to be a lifetime renter.
No, You offered up your list and I asked some very simple questions and you refused to answer them.

Your list doesn't stand up to even the most basic scrutiny. For example, you reckon there is going to be a rush of investors into Perth. Okay, where are the tenants going to come from? Are you predicting a 2012 style demand glut for rentals. Whats going to drive that? Details like that are the difference between being a spoofer and making a reasoned prediction. It could happen but you wont be able to claim credit because you didn't predict it.

Your list is an after the fact rationalisation for your core argument: its Perth's turn because the cycle says so.

Hasn't been a boom in over a decade so one must be round the corner. Thats your argument.

And you havent answered the most basic question of all: why does the median have to double?

Because there is f*** all on your list that explains that.
Edited by Veritas, 10 Aug 2017, 01:38 AM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:28 AM
No, You offered up your list and I asked some very simple questions and you refused to answer them.

Your list doesn't stand up to even the most basic scrutiny. For example, you reckon there is going to be a rush of investors into Perth. Okay, where are the tenants going to come from? Are you predicting a 2012 style demand glut for rentals. Whats going to drive that? Details like that are the difference between being a spoofer and making a reasoned prediction. It could happen but you wont be able to claim credit because you didn't predict it.

Your list is an after the fact rationalisation for your core argument: its Perth's turn because the cycle says so.

Hasn't been a boom in over a decade so one must be round the corner. Thats your argument.

And you havent answered the most basic question of all: why does the median have to double?

Because there is f*** all on your list that explains that.
I can't even get Matthew to admit it would have made so much more sense to trade out of Perth housing and into USA shares after the GFC.

How can you reason with someone like that?

Seriously. Opportunities don't come like that very often.

To miss them is criminal. To deny them is just moranic.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Black Panther
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Bears are wrong. This thread is a classic example of bear denial and bleating.
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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:28 AM
For example, you reckon there is going to be a rush of investors into Perth. Okay, where are the tenants going to come from? Are you predicting a 2012 style demand glut for rentals. Whats going to drive that?
Substitute 'Sydney' for 'Perth' and your arguments are identical to those made by the daft Sydney bears in 2012.

"Why would an investor buy in Sydney when there's already a supply glut!"
"Population growth is falling! Where will all the tenants come from!"
"What's going to drive the population growth necessary for a house price boom"
"Low interest rates? Whats new? Sydney prices have been falling for years!"
"Affordability has been improving for years but no boom, why would it boom now!"
"There can't be a shortage of houses because rents haven't gone up much!"
"Yields are laughable! Why would any investor buy in Sydney!"
"There's already a glut, there's no way Sydney can have a construction boom!"
"Sydney already has a massive bubble and prices will crash 40%!"


But then Sydney prices doubled in five years, hitting a $1M median in 2015 as The Mighty Lord Shadow predicted long long ago.

You should keep renting.
Edited by Rat, 10 Aug 2017, 09:09 AM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
10 Aug 2017, 09:04 AM
Substitute 'Sydney' for 'Perth' and your arguments are identical to those made by the daft Sydney bears in 2012.

"Why would an investor buy in Sydney when there's already a supply glut!"
"Population growth is falling! Where will all the tenants come from!"
"What's going to drive the population growth necessary for a house price boom"
"Low interest rates? Whats new? Sydney prices have been falling for years!"
"Affordability has been improving for years but no boom, why would it boom now!"
"There can't be a shortage of houses because rents haven't gone up much!"
"Yields are laughable! Why would any investor buy in Sydney!"
"There's already a glut, there's no way Sydney can have a construction boom!"
"Sydney already has a massive bubble and prices will crash 40%!"


But then Sydney prices doubled in five years, hitting a $1M median in 2015 as The Mighty Lord Shadow predicted long long ago.

You should keep renting.
I don’t care what the bears said in 2011 about Sydney. We are talking about Perth.

Your core argument is that its Perth’s turn and that the fundamentals are about to line up to produce a boom. Because the magic property cycle says so.

But you can’t answer the most simple of questions:

1. What will cause the rise in population necessary to produce such a boom?
2. Why will the boom precipitate million dollar medians? What are the drivers behind that? Why not 750k or 600k? What specifically will drive prices to double in 5 years?

And save your ‘keep renting’ nonsense. The WA bears are cashed up ready to go once the market turns and we will have plenty of warning.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Simon_S
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Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:16 PM


2.Why will the boom precipitate million dollar medians? What are the drivers behind that? Why not 750k or 600k? What specifically will drive prices to double in 5 years?

Maybe people like Shadow selling in Sydney and buying in Perth in anticipation that the cycle will now begin in Perth........ :lol

Will take a lot of Shadows though..... :lol

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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

Veritas
10 Aug 2017, 01:16 PM
What will cause the rise in population necessary to produce such a boom?
What percentage rise in population do you believe is a prerequisite for booms?

Quote:
 
The WA bears are cashed up ready to go once the market turns and we will have plenty of warning
That's what the Sydney bears thought too. Then... BOOM! And suddenly prices had doubled in five years as they stood around like stunned mullets wondering what the hell just happened. :lol
Edited by Rat, 10 Aug 2017, 01:25 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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Veritas
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Rat
10 Aug 2017, 01:24 PM
What percentage rise in population do you believe is a prerequisite for booms?


That's what the Sydney bears though too. :lol
More evasion.

Just admit you haven’t got anything except your harebrained ‘Property cycle’ theory.

It’s Perth turn. That’s your argument.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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