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When will the Bulls eat humble pie on WA?
Topic Started: 24 Mar 2017, 12:18 AM (19,209 Views)
Veritas
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Matthew
24 Mar 2017, 01:13 AM




If your rent outpaces the falls you are a fool. Simple.

Rent is currently outpacing falls. So you are a fool.

Over the past 5 years rent has outpaced the falls.

Over the past 10 years rent has outpaced the falls.

So you are a fool.

Simple.
Really Matey?

So it was better to buy at the 2014 peak than wait till now?

Lets see the maths on that fella and don't forget to include mortgage interest in the calculation.

I GUARANTEE that the savings on lower prices and mortgage interest is greater than the rent outlay.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Veritas
10 Apr 2017, 11:10 PM
Really Matey?

So it was better to buy at the 2014 peak than wait till now?

Lets see the maths on that fella and don't forget to include mortgage interest in the calculation.

I GUARANTEE that the savings on lower prices and mortgage interest is greater than the rent outlay.
I think Matthew is having a moment, he is not the mathematician he thinks he is...

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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newjez
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Foxy
10 Apr 2017, 11:18 PM
I think Matthew is having a moment, he is not the mathematician he thinks he is...
He'd need to be a f***ing magician rather than a mathematician to make those sums work.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Black Panther
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They declined 3.3 per cent from 2010-17, a stark contrast to the almost 200 per cent increase of 2000-07.

Are the bears so stupid to believe this is a victory for them.

Seriously delusional.

And now you are all nervous that the Perth market is on the verge of going up again.
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Matthew
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Veritas
10 Apr 2017, 11:10 PM
Really Matey?

So it was better to buy at the 2014 peak than wait till now?

Lets see the maths on that fella and don't forget to include mortgage interest in the calculation.

The median house price in Perth according to Landgate is down about $40k from the November 2014 peak. That is $357 per week.

You tell me what you could buy for $585k in November 2014 and the associated rent and work it out.

Quote:
 
I GUARANTEE that the savings on lower prices and mortgage interest is greater than the rent outlay.
Mortgage interest is almost always cheaper than rent for the first 5 - 7 years after a property purchase. You are guaranteeing that the sun will rise tomorrow. But property isn't a short term game. And Owner Occupied property isn't either.

I am sure you thought you made a stinging point there. Sorry to disappoint you, but you failed miserably.
newjez
11 Apr 2017, 06:00 AM
He'd need to be a f***ing magician rather than a mathematician to make those sums work.
Not at all. The math is incredibly simple. House price falls since the peak are lower than rent on a comparable dwelling by a considerable margin.
Edited by Matthew, 11 Apr 2017, 10:41 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Black Panther
11 Apr 2017, 08:00 AM
They declined 3.3 per cent from 2010-17, a stark contrast to the almost 200 per cent increase of 2000-07.

Are the bears so stupid to believe this is a victory for them.

Seriously delusional.

And now you are all nervous that the Perth market is on the verge of going up again.
your a smart guy Black Panther.

What are the holding costs on those properties over that time??

Interest
Insurance
Oh and the odd improvement
water rates
shire rates
land tax
stamp duty
maintenance???

So you give a raw figure of 200% increase, looks good on paper...

But we both know it is not true :D :D :D

Do we not Black Cat, so my question is why do you quote it???
Matthew
11 Apr 2017, 10:40 AM
The median house price in Perth according to Landgate is down about $40k from the November 2014 peak. That is $357 per week.

You tell me what you could buy for $585k in November 2014 and the associated rent and work it out.


Mortgage interest is almost always cheaper than rent for the first 5 - 7 years after a property purchase. You are guaranteeing that the sun will rise tomorrow. But property isn't a short term game. And Owner Occupied property isn't either.

I am sure you thought you made a stinging point there. Sorry to disappoint you, but you failed miserably.

Not at all. The math is incredibly simple. House price falls since the peak are lower than rent on a comparable dwelling by a considerable margin.
Are you mentally challenged??

You continually avoid the total true cost of home ownership...

Like oh, it's all free if i sign on the line.

That is the view of a fool.

I estimate the cost of holding a property if you have an 80% loan at 7% per year.
Edited by Foxy, 11 Apr 2017, 11:32 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rufus
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eloi75
9 Apr 2017, 11:52 PM
so theres a housing shortage in seattle? seems that there is a housing shortage everywhere nowadays and yet you go to these places like spain, portugal and seatle and you will see vacant after vacant decaying properties.
Not really. Spain and Portugal are coming back.

It's inevitable. The global population is increasing and we can't live in isolation to the rest of the world.

Todays story from Seattle is -

“The affordable housing crisis is exploding all across the country. We are facing pressures from all sides: demand for rental housing has increased by 21 percent"
http://seattlemedium.com/new-senate-report-demand-affordable-housing-exploding-construction-not-keeping-pace/

That's the USA of course, but not dissimilar to here. Perhaps it's time that governments did something about it. For private enterprise to build before needed accommodation the risk of economic failure is way too high, but government can do that or assist the private sector to provide it. That's why we saw cities in China built before they were needed, at least a communist government tried, and yet even China has a massive undersupply where houses and apartments are wanted.

There is no silver bullet other than wait for the global population to decline, but when will that happen?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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zaph
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Matthew
11 Apr 2017, 10:40 AM
The median house price in Perth according to Landgate is down about $40k from the November 2014 peak. That is $357 per week.

You tell me what you could buy for $585k in November 2014 and the associated rent and work it out.


Mortgage interest is almost always cheaper than rent for the first 5 - 7 years after a property purchase. You are guaranteeing that the sun will rise tomorrow. But property isn't a short term game. And Owner Occupied property isn't either.

I am sure you thought you made a stinging point there. Sorry to disappoint you, but you failed miserably.

Not at all. The math is incredibly simple. House price falls since the peak are lower than rent on a comparable dwelling by a considerable margin.
Quote:
 
according to Landgate

I'd be very cautious about relying on Landgate data, it makes no adjustment for composition.

Quote:
 
Mortgage interest is almost always cheaper than rent for the first 5 - 7 years after a property purchase.

Does that mean one should sell a property after 5 - 7 years and buy another that is cheaper than rent?

Quote:
 
The math

It's maths and mums in Australia, not math and moms.
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Trollie
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Rufus
11 Apr 2017, 11:04 AM
Not really. Spain and Portugal are coming back.

It's inevitable. The global population is increasing and we can't live in isolation to the rest of the world.

Todays story from Seattle is -

“The affordable housing crisis is exploding all across the country. We are facing pressures from all sides: demand for rental housing has increased by 21 percent"
http://seattlemedium.com/new-senate-report-demand-affordable-housing-exploding-construction-not-keeping-pace/

That's the USA of course, but not dissimilar to here. Perhaps it's time that governments did something about it. For private enterprise to build before needed accommodation the risk of economic failure is way too high, but government can do that or assist the private sector to provide it. That's why we saw cities in China built before they were needed, at least a communist government tried, and yet even China has a massive undersupply where houses and apartments are wanted.

There is no silver bullet other than wait for the global population to decline, but when will that happen?
Global population is predicted to peak at something like 20 billion.

That's a lot of infrastructure investment.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

zaph
11 Apr 2017, 11:08 AM


I'd be very cautious about relying on Landgate data, it makes no adjustment for composition.



Does that mean one should sell a property after 5 - 7 years and buy another that is cheaper than rent?



It's maths and mums in Australia, not math and moms.
mom came from Canada.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/interest-rates-unchanged-reserve-bank-growing-uneasy-over-household-borrowing/news-story/0419499090f2d4331364d27cb4d63012
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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