Employment and listing data isn't anywhere near realtime you f***en nob
Really?
So if I do a search on realestate.com.au, REIWA.com or SEEk.com, what am I seeing?
Houses that sold last month? Rentals which have already been rented out? Have employers stopped advertisng their jobs for fun or are there not that many jobs around?
What I am supposed to look at then?
Some claim by a Troll that prices are actually going up even though the indexes show prices are falling because the Troll reckons the index is out of date?
Or do I look at the real time information which so far has reflected in house prices exactly as I said it would back in 2014?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
You could quite easily know recruiters working at labour hire companies too. You'd only need to know a handful of them to get a good idea of the employment situation.
This is where there's a clear delineation between people: those who get their information from the media and reporting organisations, and those who get their information from putting their ear to the ground.
Time will tell which set of people are getting the best info.
What you fail to see is that we live in a time of unprecendented access to free, real time information.
Indexes that show price rises and falls for things which have already sold are not what a Perth bear will be looking at.
They will be looking at real estate sales and rental listings, seeing how many are listed, how much they are hoping to sell for, how long they have to advertise before they sell.
They can drill down into this real time information to look at individual suburbs or streets. They can compare house types and amemities.
It has become harder for the RE industry to manipulate the local market with false information. Fifteen years ago, most of us were limited to what information we could glean from the largely RE sponsored Saturday paper. They could tell us that supply was tight, that prices were going to go up 10% in the next six months, etc. etc.
Now, we can look for ourselves and see what is really happening in the market. We can also see what is happening in the local economy.
Anyone in Perth who is holding out waiting for prices to fall further will not be caught out by a sudden increase.
For a sudden increase in house prices to occur, the labour market would have to dramatically improve, supply of houses for sale would have to dramatically drop, the rental market would have to dramatically tighten.
All of these things will be visible many many months in advance.
Much in the same way that the falls since 2014 could be seen well in advance by anyone with any idea of what was going on in Perth.
You clearly have no idea.
This is true, but what sets this apart from the downturn post GFC, is the slack rental market.
In 2012, speculators like Skammy could use equity to borrow and buy a cheap rental which could then be let out at a high enough rent to pretty much cover the mortgage straightaway.
Now, with available rentals at near record highs and no equity gain on PPOR's for years, the option of buying a house, waiting a couple of years for an equity gain of 15% and borrowing against it to buy a rental, is pretty much closed.
but we are not talking about investors, we are talking about gamblers. They dont see yields, they see capital gains. So after such a massive bull run these people will still have the hysteria mentality and if prices fall even %5 they will see it as opportunity to buy more thinking that prices will continue to rise for ever. Its just like the stock market, people view a small sell off as a great opportunity to buy more shares, even though the fundamentals and numbers show that the company is bankrupt.
These people arent investors, they are gamblers. An investor follows numbers, fundamentals, stats etc. they do not let emotions rule them. Sell when there is hysteria ( because it is not basded on fundamentals) and buy when there is blood on the streets ( because it is not based on fundamentals) .
You could quite easily know recruiters working at labour hire companies too. You'd only need to know a handful of them to get a good idea of the employment situation.
This is where there's a clear delineation between people: those who get their information from the media and reporting organisations, and those who get their information from putting their ear to the ground.
Time will tell which set of people are getting the best info.
If you live and work in Perth, you know exactly how the economic situation is going.
This is why I drew the conclusion that I did back in late 2013.
The likes of Dolly and Skammy are nothing more than spruikers trying to convince everyone that what is actually happening isn't really happening at all and that we are on the cusp of some major new boom.
But we are not.
It's as simple as that.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Well, puttin' ya maths aside (sorries ... ) 'n just assumin' ya reckon ya work is stable enough 'n wotever else that ya can carry something that might seem like a bit of a drain on ya resources through a rough patch/a long dry spell evens(?) AND if ya talkin' investment (as opposed ta home ownership AND ya do have a genuine interest in investing in Perth [which I don't]), I'd still suggest at least be keepin' ya eye out for stuff that ya reckon just might be genuinely decent long term investment opportunities (like potential splitter blocks or wotever?) at this time - Just on tha off chance ya might jag one in tha currently not so flash market. ('Cause ya got eff all chance of jaggin' any really genuinely decent investment property at anything approachin' an appealin' price in pretty much anything but a down market - Has bin my experience at least.)
Oh 'n PS: Ta play such a game it's also a handy thing ta be youngish wif a nice long holding time frame in tha back of ya mind goin' in at least I'd also suggest? - Which kinda leaves me outa it these days! ... - But not you so much necessarily I suspect? (But anyway, at tha end of tha day, wotever ya might choose ta do, it's important for ya ta be comfortable wif it for all ya own reasons I also reckons. [Sheesh, I'm personally loaded up wif enough cash that lots would laugh at me I reckons. But it's not causin' me any great grief at this time. So I can personally take me own sweet time figurin' out just how I does intends ta thin it out a bit goin' forward. 'Cause I'm reasonably comfortable wif me position - Wif that bein' a nice position ta be in for mine.])
agree. if someone is looking longterm, like 20 years, then yes u will find some good opportunities now but u will find even better ones in a few years i feel and save yourself a few 100k's
but we are not talking about investors, we are talking about gamblers.
The capital gain was always the aim, despite what they may tell you. Get somebody else to cover your costs, sell for four times the price in 20 years time, retire with millions.
But to buy this speculative asset, you need funds.
You need to be able to fund the holding costs as well.
No PPOR equity, renters thin on the ground, how do you buy, how can you afford to hold?
The days of anyone on an average wage using property to retire rich are over for Perth investors for the forseeable future.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
So if I do a search on realestate.com.au, REIWA.com or SEEk.com, what am I seeing?
Houses that sold last month? Rentals which have already been rented out? Have employers stopped advertisng their jobs for fun or are there not that many jobs around?
What I am supposed to look at then?
Some claim by a Troll that prices are actually going up even though the indexes show prices are falling because the Troll reckons the index is out of date?
Or do I look at the real time information which so far has reflected in house prices exactly as I said it would back in 2014?
actually on realestate.com you will see a lot of properties on there for months with a SOLD on them. They will leave it there on purpose to scare and create anxiety for buyers that if they dont hurry then they will miss out.
I live in Lewisham, sydney where they have or are building 100's of apartments. if the market is so dam hot and everything is selling then why is it that some of these projects still havent sold out after almost 3 years on the market. Some have started to drop the prices.
Right next door there are 2 houses for sale which have approval for units and even after 3 months they still cant sell them.
How can this be if the market is so hot and everything is selling. this is lewisham where you have the lightrail right next door and the train station 100m away and your 15min to sydney CBD.
Surely they should have sold everything by now. But they havent and this is what is worrying me.
actually on realestate.com you will see a lot of properties on there for months with a SOLD on them. They will leave it there on purpose to scare and create anxiety for buyers that if they dont hurry then they will miss out.
I live in Lewisham, sydney where they have or are building 100's of apartments. if the market is so dam hot and everything is selling then why is it that some of these projects still havent sold out after almost 3 years on the market. Some have started to drop the prices.
Right next door there are 2 houses for sale which have approval for units and even after 3 months they still cant sell them.
How can this be if the market is so hot and everything is selling. this is lewisham where you have the lightrail right next door and the train station 100m away and your 15min to sydney CBD.
Surely they should have sold everything by now. But they havent and this is what is worrying me.
Just go for a drive down Canterbury Rd and see all the Development Sites.
A good friend is looking for a spot to relocate his workshop in that Area and told me that there were 17 Development Sites for sale.
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