You're still missing the point. Indexes lag price changes by months, by the time an index shows the bears it's an up turn its too late.
what u dont understand is that their are no fundametals for the prices to rise. In fact the macro fundamentals are getting worse for perth. Mining slowing down even further, immigration slowing down, huge oversupply of apartments, etc etc.
In every down turn there will always be a little uptick from time to time because the gamblers will see that the prices have come down and assume its a good time to bet. But if the fundamentals are not there then they will soon continue on their way down.
what u dont understand is that their are no fundametals for the prices to rise. In fact the macro fundamentals are getting worse for perth. Mining slowing down even further, immigration slowing down, huge oversupply of apartments, etc etc.
In every down turn there will always be a little uptick from time to time because the gamblers will see that the prices have come down and assume its a good time to bet. But if the fundamentals are not there then they will soon continue on their way down.
Buying when the next boom happens is for mug punters like you and timo
You're still missing the point. Indexes lag price changes by months, by the time an index shows the bears it's an up turn its too late.
What you fail to see is that we live in a time of unprecendented access to free, real time information.
Indexes that show price rises and falls for things which have already sold are not what a Perth bear will be looking at.
They will be looking at real estate sales and rental listings, seeing how many are listed, how much they are hoping to sell for, how long they have to advertise before they sell.
They can drill down into this real time information to look at individual suburbs or streets. They can compare house types and amemities.
It has become harder for the RE industry to manipulate the local market with false information. Fifteen years ago, most of us were limited to what information we could glean from the largely RE sponsored Saturday paper. They could tell us that supply was tight, that prices were going to go up 10% in the next six months, etc. etc.
Now, we can look for ourselves and see what is really happening in the market. We can also see what is happening in the local economy.
Anyone in Perth who is holding out waiting for prices to fall further will not be caught out by a sudden increase.
For a sudden increase in house prices to occur, the labour market would have to dramatically improve, supply of houses for sale would have to dramatically drop, the rental market would have to dramatically tighten.
All of these things will be visible many many months in advance.
Much in the same way that the falls since 2014 could be seen well in advance by anyone with any idea of what was going on in Perth.
You clearly have no idea.
eloi75
1 Apr 2017, 03:41 PM
In every down turn there will always be a little uptick from time to time because the gamblers will see that the prices have come down and assume its a good time to bet.
This is true, but what sets this apart from the downturn post GFC, is the slack rental market.
In 2012, speculators like Skammy could use equity to borrow and buy a cheap rental which could then be let out at a high enough rent to pretty much cover the mortgage straightaway.
Now, with available rentals at near record highs and no equity gain on PPOR's for years, the option of buying a house, waiting a couple of years for an equity gain of 15% and borrowing against it to buy a rental, is pretty much closed.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
What you fail to see is that we live in a time of unprecendented access to free, real time information.
Indexes that show price rises and falls for things which have already sold are not what a Perth bear will be looking at.
They will be looking at real estate sales and rental listings, seeing how many are listed, how much they are hoping to sell for, how long they have to advertise before they sell.
They can drill down into this real time information to look at individual suburbs or streets. They can compare house types and amemities.
It has become harder for the RE industry to manipulate the local market with false information. Fifteen years ago, most of us were limited to what information we could glean from the largely RE sponsored Saturday paper. They could tell us that supply was tight, that prices were going to go up 10% in the next six months, etc. etc.
Now, we can look for ourselves and see what is really happening in the market. We can also see what is happening in the local economy.
Anyone in Perth who is holding out waiting for prices to fall further will not be caught out by a sudden increase.
For a sudden increase in house prices to occur, the labour market would have to dramatically improve, supply of houses for sale would have to dramatically drop, the rental market would have to dramatically tighten.
All of these things will be visible many many months in advance.
Much in the same way that the falls since 2014 could be seen well in advance by anyone with any idea of what was going on in Perth.
You clearly have no idea.
This is true, but what sets this apart from the downturn post GFC, is the slack rental market.
In 2012, speculators like Skammy could use equity to borrow and buy a cheap rental which could then be let out at a high enough rent to pretty much cover the mortgage straightaway.
Now, with available rentals at near record highs and no equity gain on PPOR's for years, the option of buying a house, waiting a couple of years for an equity gain of 15% and borrowing against it to buy a rental, is pretty much closed.
Employment and listing data isn't anywhere near realtime you f***en nob
What you fail to see is that we live in a time of unprecendented access to free, real time information.
Indexes that show price rises and falls for things which have already sold are not what a Perth bear will be looking at.
They will be looking at real estate sales and rental listings, seeing how many are listed, how much they are hoping to sell for, how long they have to advertise before they sell.
They can drill down into this real time information to look at individual suburbs or streets. They can compare house types and amemities.
It has become harder for the RE industry to manipulate the local market with false information. Fifteen years ago, most of us were limited to what information we could glean from the largely RE sponsored Saturday paper. They could tell us that supply was tight, that prices were going to go up 10% in the next six months, etc. etc.
Now, we can look for ourselves and see what is really happening in the market. We can also see what is happening in the local economy.
Anyone in Perth who is holding out waiting for prices to fall further will not be caught out by a sudden increase.
For a sudden increase in house prices to occur, the labour market would have to dramatically improve, supply of houses for sale would have to dramatically drop, the rental market would have to dramatically tighten.
All of these things will be visible many many months in advance.
Much in the same way that the falls since 2014 could be seen well in advance by anyone with any idea of what was going on in Perth.
You clearly have no idea.
This is true, but what sets this apart from the downturn post GFC, is the slack rental market.
In 2012, speculators like Skammy could use equity to borrow and buy a cheap rental which could then be let out at a high enough rent to pretty much cover the mortgage straightaway.
Now, with available rentals at near record highs and no equity gain on PPOR's for years, the option of buying a house, waiting a couple of years for an equity gain of 15% and borrowing against it to buy a rental, is pretty much closed.
In economics there's a model called the "Perfect Economy". In it, one of the parameters is perfect flow of information. In this economy NOBODY makes a profit because if they do, competitors immediately pile into that market and lower the prices. This is what the internet has done to a whole bunch of industries. Commercial Realty landlords being a notable example. Why sell from a shop on the High Street paying $4000/week rent when you can advertise online and ship from home? Most dramatically Hong Kong retail space rent collapsed accordingly. Perth seems to be suffering too. It's a ghost town after 4pm. Maybe Sydbourne's city spaces have an ambience that draws people in but yeah, the days of a good realtor getting $30K more than a property is worth are largely over. Price discovery is here to stay.
well lets say you fork out 12.5 a year to keep your investment property in a dead market that lasts 10 years from the price you bought it to the same price 10 years later. You have now spent 125k on your property with no returns. This is just 1 property. imagine 2 or 3 properties. I dont see how that is good investment. Your better off in shares or even term deposits. At least you lose nothing. The only thing is you pay extra tax but at least you have made profit.
Well, puttin' ya maths aside (sorries ... ) 'n just assumin' ya reckon ya work is stable enough 'n wotever else that ya can carry something that might seem like a bit of a drain on ya resources through a rough patch/a long dry spell evens(?) AND if ya talkin' investment (as opposed ta home ownership AND ya do have a genuine interest in investing in Perth [which I don't]), I'd still suggest at least be keepin' ya eye out for stuff that ya reckon just might be genuinely decent long term investment opportunities (like potential splitter blocks or wotever?) at this time - Just on tha off chance ya might jag one in tha currently not so flash market. ('Cause ya got eff all chance of jaggin' any really genuinely decent investment property at anything approachin' an appealin' price in pretty much anything but a down market - Has bin my experience at least.)
Oh 'n PS: Ta play such a game it's also a handy thing ta be youngish wif a nice long holding time frame in tha back of ya mind goin' in at least I'd also suggest? - Which kinda leaves me outa it these days! ... - But not you so much necessarily I suspect? (But anyway, at tha end of tha day, wotever ya might choose ta do, it's important for ya ta be comfortable wif it for all ya own reasons I also reckons. [Sheesh, I'm personally loaded up wif enough cash that lots would laugh at me I reckons. But it's not causin' me any great grief at this time. So I can personally take me own sweet time figurin' out just how I does intends ta thin it out a bit goin' forward. 'Cause I'm reasonably comfortable wif me position - Wif that bein' a nice position ta be in for mine.])
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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