BHP heading for $18. Then I'll buy. Only because I know lazy analysts and befuddled mom 'n pops will bid it up again. The CEO is more concerned with Merlot than money, Pinot noir than profits, escargot than earnings. Seen his type before in Tokyo during the crash. Like they say about cuckolds; the husband is always the last to find out...
BHP heading for $18. Then I'll buy. Only because I know lazy analysts and befuddled mom 'n pops will bid it up again. The CEO is more concerned with Merlot than money, Pinot noir than profits, escargot than earnings. Seen his type before in Tokyo during the crash. Like they say about cuckolds; the husband is always the last to find out...
Sure?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I called the $14 handle before and it's on public record at investing.com. PM me if you want the link to prove it. Andy is in coffin corner and it's not all his fault, just a lot of it. The previous CEO, Kloppers, a rich kid from a mining family who was finally fired, doomed BHP by buying massively over-priced shale assets that will run out in 7 years. Andy oversaw the Sanmarco disaster that wiped out a village killing dozens. The bill for that one is a cool $5Billion. Even at 10% profit margins they'll need to generate $50Billion in revenue to pay that off. Then there's the copper mine strike in Chile. That's another $1Billion gone. No one competent ever lets a situation like that develop unless they've been hitting the Bollinger rather than the books. Andy had a chance to turn the company around with some bold moves. Instead he's morphed into Howard Hughes. I could go on. Tearing into Jack Nassar is another whole story. BHP is over-analyzed and priced continuously for perfection. Simply because it's a blue chip and so draws pension and mutual fund money. I'm sure the irrationality of the market will keep its shareprice afloat but the long term trend is down, baby, down.
hidflect
21 Apr 2017, 11:34 PM
I called the $14 handle before and it's on public record at investing.com. PM me if you want the link to prove it. Andy is in coffin corner and it's not all his fault, just a lot of it. The previous CEO, Kloppers, a rich kid from a mining family who was finally fired, doomed BHP by buying massively over-priced shale assets that will run out in 7 years. Andy oversaw the Sanmarco disaster that wiped out a village killing dozens. The bill for that one is a cool $5Billion. Even at 10% profit margins they'll need to generate $50Billion in revenue to pay that off. Then there's the copper mine strike in Chile. That's another $1Billion gone. No one competent ever lets a situation like that develop unless they've been hitting the Bollinger rather than the books. Andy had a chance to turn the company around with some bold moves. Instead he's morphed into Howard Hughes. I could go on. Tearing into Jack Nassar is another whole story. BHP is over-analyzed and priced continuously for perfection. Simply because it's a blue chip and so draws pension and mutual fund money. I'm sure the irrationality of the market will keep its shareprice afloat but the long term trend is down, baby, down.
I'm drunk and I'm bitter but I mean it. That company squandered a 24 year boom to double down on digging holes for cash. They need constant acceleration of the Chinese economy to stay afloat. Bad days. Sad days.
I called the $14 handle before and it's on public record at investing.com. PM me if you want the link to prove it. Andy is in coffin corner and it's not all his fault, just a lot of it. The previous CEO, Kloppers, a rich kid from a mining family who was finally fired, doomed BHP by buying massively over-priced shale assets that will run out in 7 years. Andy oversaw the Sanmarco disaster that wiped out a village killing dozens. The bill for that one is a cool $5Billion. Even at 10% profit margins they'll need to generate $50Billion in revenue to pay that off. Then there's the copper mine strike in Chile. That's another $1Billion gone. No one competent ever lets a situation like that develop unless they've been hitting the Bollinger rather than the books. Andy had a chance to turn the company around with some bold moves. Instead he's morphed into Howard Hughes. I could go on. Tearing into Jack Nassar is another whole story. BHP is over-analyzed and priced continuously for perfection. Simply because it's a blue chip and so draws pension and mutual fund money. I'm sure the irrationality of the market will keep its shareprice afloat but the long term trend is down, baby, down. I'm drunk and I'm bitter but I mean it. That company squandered a 24 year boom to double down on digging holes for cash. They need constant acceleration of the Chinese economy to stay afloat. Bad days. Sad days.
I was asking why you would buy at 18?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I explained. At that price analysts will recommend a buy. I got called out on Hotcopper where someone dug through all my previous posts (a bit creepy) to find one where i said I was buying at $25. I did. And sold at $26.xx to make a few thousand. I even posted a pic of my share trades to prove it. I knew it was overvalued at $25 but I also knew analysts would continue buying. I have supported analysts in banks for years and they all think the same. They think like doctors. Rote learning.
Now look at that activist shareholder issue raised recently. I'm always looking for the "tell" in situation like these. The "aha!" moment, if you like. And I think there's a big one. See how fcking fast the management pushed back on the proposal. Why, they must've considered it for a full 35 minutes before alacritously and furiously backpeddling. You'd think they'd run some numbers first, wouldn't you? But nay... There's a giant, reeking dog doodoo under that carpet and they know it. I think the activists know it too and this proposal was never genuinely expected to be considered. It was telegraphing to ol' Andy and co. Ans the deciphered message reads; "we know what you're doing. Get your sh1t together or face the consequences". This is a tactic that might've worked 20 years ago but we have a new level of psycho in charge now. Their mantra is YWBHIWBH. "You won't be here, I won't be here" (when the sh1t hits the fan...)
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