Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I did think it funny when Rufus started posting about Perth having turned a corner, and prices increasing etc.
What people need to realise is there is a difference between the median and prices, and when volumes are low, the median is unreliable.
Now sales have picked up after the Xmas lull, the have resumed their steady decline.
Rufus is from over east where seasonality doesn't really come into it. They have a lot of international buyers over there who don't need to time buys so that they can be in by Christmas and all that kind of thing.
Perth residential is very much a local market where people typically list in late winter for the spring selling season. What doesn't sell by mid December often gets withdrawn until January.
You can see this in the listings and sales numbers. Listings fall off dramatically in December with no corresponding increase in sales.
Perth jumped 8 points in December on turnover down by 10% on the previous December.
Perth dropped 46 points (7.73%) from this point last year until the spring bounce in October.
No reason that the same thing won't happen this year (maybe worse).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
What do you think the chances of the WA Govt bringing in a Construction grant for all new homes (under a certain figure for house and land total). If FHB don't pick up the slack and boost building industry over the next 1 to 2 years?
I built and sold two new homes in Port Lincoln a few years ago (made a very small profit, but did the builds more for something to do, and because I find building interesting), and on each of these builds I claimed an $8,000 grant after slab went down.
$8,000 was incentive for residential home builders to boost the struggling SA market. Was on offer around 2012 and from memory the house and land had to be under personal names, no trusts or company ownership, house (contract) and land had to be less than $450,000. Didn't matter if you weren't a FHB.
if this comes in I mihjt jump back in. Lots of well priced land down south.
What do you think the chances of the WA Govt bringing in a Construction grant for all new homes (under a certain figure for house and land total). If FHB don't pick up the slack and boost building industry over the next 1 to 2 years?
No reason they couldn't do this. I'm sure the local RE Industry will hate it though.
They were none too pleased when Barney chucked the additional $5k at FTB's.
The last thing an RE wants is new supply in an already oversupplied market.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I did think it funny when Rufus started posting about Perth having turned a corner, and prices increasing etc.
What people need to realise is there is a difference between the median and prices, and when volumes are low, the median is unreliable.
Now sales have picked up after the Xmas lull, the have resumed their steady decline.
Thanks that explains it. Core logic have changed their methodology recently (about 6 months ago),that might have played a part also. I think perth will be under $500,000 before years end.
Jimbo
15 Jan 2017, 06:24 PM
No reason they couldn't do this. I'm sure the local RE Industry will hate it though.
They were none too pleased when Barney chucked the additional $5k at FTB's.
The last thing an RE wants is new supply in an already oversupplied market.
Took the words out of my mouth. That's exactly why perth is in so much trouble. Now that mining investment is starting to run its course the only thing left is housing construction and they're already over supplied.
Took the words out of my mouth. That's exactly why perth is in so much trouble. Now that mining investment is starting to run its course the only thing left is housing construction and they're already over supplied.
The WA government has managed the economy with about as much competence as a shopaholic with 20 credit cards.
Chucking money at FTB’s before they needed to, building bling projects and creating jobs when jobs didn’t need to be created.
Blowing royalties on trinkets.
They caused this mess by competing for labour during the resources boom, pushing up wages and fuelling migration.
Anyone can look good running an economy with an unlimited budget. But that is something that they don't have anymore.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Don't hear you complaining when Mikey and Skammy start new threads about rising prices and falling listings Matey.
Vested interest maybe Matey?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy