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The high cost of snake oil
Topic Started: 7 Jan 2017, 10:18 AM (10,285 Views)
zaph
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skamy
10 Jan 2017, 04:22 PM
The real stupidity is to really believe that you can predict the future - not even the best economists in the world predicted the GFC in a timely fashion. The doomsters like Keen were like boys crying wolf - they had been doing it for years. They did not know when the usual trends for asset values was going to change for a few years.

However, I can say with reasonable certainty that over 10 years my property in our growing cities will increase in value, and it will provide me with good annual yields on average. I can also say with reasonable accuracy that holding $10 million in the bank over 10 years will not give you good returns.


Are you really as daft as you appear on here ?


What I have recommended is what was recommended to me and that is to always choose home ownership over rental. Look back over the past 50 years and you will find that the vast majority of people who chose buying over renting will say it was the best decision of their life.

I am trying to drag you out of you doomster cave or at least to shine some light in there, and let you see where all this doomstering will take you.

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The real stupidity is to really believe that you can predict the future

Yet you do all the time. For what it's worth I'd bet money on your prediction over Simons.
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However, I can say with reasonable certainty that over 10 years my property in our growing cities will increase in value,

Just the other day you were saying Perth property hadn't grown at all in the last ten years.
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Trollie
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zaph
10 Jan 2017, 05:53 PM
Just the other day you were saying Perth property hadn't grown at all in the last ten years.
To be fair that's the median, but no one buys the median.

Prices for individual investments could rise or fall, but generally if you buy within 10km of the CBD, near a good school and near public transport, it's going up in price.
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skamy
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Terry
10 Jan 2017, 04:33 PM
Can I say with reasonable certainty that you're a puppet Roddy? With data analytics, I think that would be possible.

Can I say with reasonable certainty that you're a puppet Roddy? With data analytics, I think that would be possible.
If you say that you are a liar - but no one will make you believe any different. You are the only with a pile of puppets and socks.
Chris
10 Jan 2017, 05:50 PM
I will buy a house as soon as I can afford to, I have never said I don't want to or that I think people shouldn't. What you are stating now is a significantly different position you, BP and others have championed in the last 3 yrs. you have now moved from a 'can't lose' attitude to a 'it will all even out 50yrs down the track' type position.

Of course ownership is better when it comes time to retire but when comparing a rental to a sole PPOR for an OO. But this is not what we're discussing, the wealth you champion is related to property investment and accumulating wealth that way for retirement. You cannot deny there will be people out there who have invested in Perth in the last 12 months that have lost and will continue to lose significant amounts of money on a depreciating liability.

They may take a decade or more to break even and you advocated this.
I never said that Chris - I have often said that even if you do not buy at bottom and you have to put up with a few years of dropping prices that you will always end up better off buying. If you wait to buy prices can run away from you (witness Sydney and Perth) if you buy and wait out a bit of a downturn then at least you are not wasting rent money and time.

I cannot predict when Perth will recover but you can bet your bottom dollar that one day it will. A city which grows in population and wealth will always witness growing house prices as people compete for the best locations.

I can also predict with reasonable accuracy that Perth is very unlikely to crash after 10 years of stagnant prices, anyone who tries to sell you the idea that prices in this very wealthy city will drop 40-50% is an outright charlatan in my books. I have been out there buying when the market has been at its slowest and there are plenty of people with enough money to provide a good bottom for the market.

It does not take a decade to break even - from day one you are one day ahead of the renter and one day closer to outright ownership. Do you think people who bought in 2009 in Sydney only to witness another 4 years of stagnation and dropping prices are crying now? They have banked 8 years of rent free living for themselves on top of any capital gains they have seen.
Edited by skamy, 10 Jan 2017, 11:22 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Matthew
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Trollie
10 Jan 2017, 06:21 PM
To be fair that's the median, but no one buys the median.

Prices for individual investments could rise or fall, but generally if you buy within 10km of the CBD, near a good school and near public transport, it's going up in price.
Very true. According to REIWA the median house price of my Wilson former PPOR now IP#4 has increased 3.8% per annum over the past 10 years. A gain in real terms. Given where it is, I am confident it has outperformed that (Wilson north of Leach Hwy would have under performed south).

And apparently my first PPOR and IP#1 in Victoria Park has increased 4.3% per annum over the same. It is worth about 6x what I paid for it 20 years ago.

The other two, again according to REIWA have increased 3.8% and 4.3% over the decade.

All above CPI. All rents increasing over time. All, if I had debt, attracting lower funding costs.

But it isn't convenient to people like Dimshit and Simon to look at the real downward pressure on the Perth median, which is an urban sprawl to the north and south on blocks half the size of the inner city ones in the middle of crime ridden ghettos in the middle of west bumf*** nowhere.

People with property inside the border I suggested yesterday (South of Reid, North of Roe, West of Tonkin) would not have had a decline in asset value in real or nominal terms over the past 10 years.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Terry
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Matthew
10 Jan 2017, 11:37 PM
Very true. According to REIWA the median house price of my Wilson former PPOR now IP#4 has increased 3.8% per annum over the past 10 years. A gain in real terms. Given where it is, I am confident it has outperformed that (Wilson north of Leach Hwy would have under performed south).

And apparently my first PPOR and IP#1 in Victoria Park has increased 4.3% per annum over the same. It is worth about 6x what I paid for it 20 years ago.

The other two, again according to REIWA have increased 3.8% and 4.3% over the decade.

All above CPI. All rents increasing over time. All, if I had debt, attracting lower funding costs.

But it isn't convenient to people like Dimshit and Simon to look at the real downward pressure on the Perth median, which is an urban sprawl to the north and south on blocks half the size of the inner city ones in the middle of crime ridden ghettos in the middle of west bumf*** nowhere.

People with property inside the border I suggested yesterday (South of Reid, North of Roe, West of Tonkin) would not have had a decline in asset value in real or nominal terms over the past 10 years.
Do you own a "median" house Uncle Matty? How about an upper quintile house? Same deal?
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Matthew
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Terry
11 Jan 2017, 12:27 AM
Do you own a "median" house Uncle Matty?
Interesting question Buck Bundy, and one I am sure a simpleton like you does not understand. What is a "median" house Buck?

The "median" price for houses in Victoria Park according to REIWA is $652,500, some 4x what we paid when we were Chris' age but complained less because there was no internet forum to whinge on and got on with living instead.

But that includes 2, 3 and 4 bedroom houses. New and vintage. Subdivisible and not. On major roads such as Berwick, Albany, Canning and Shepparton as well as quiet streets unfrequented by traffic like our street.

Medians are a measure, but not a rule. The rule is comparing like for like. Same block size, same dwelling size, same condition, same area.

A "median" house in Perth is currently an old piece of shit some 180sqm or so on 450sqm of land 20km from the CBD or a new piece of shit poorly finished by parasitic builders a little smaller on a block half the size 50km from the CBD.

So to answer your question Buck no I don't own a Perth median property. But I do own either side of the median for the like for like in my suburbs.

Why do you ask? Did you have a point to make or once again are you contemplating your navel on matters you have no idea about?

My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Terry
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Matthew
11 Jan 2017, 02:05 AM
Interesting question Buck Bundy, and one I am sure a simpleton like you does not understand. What is a "median" house Buck?

The "median" price for houses in Victoria Park according to REIWA is $652,500, some 4x what we paid when we were Chris' age but complained less because there was no internet forum to whinge on and got on with living instead.

But that includes 2, 3 and 4 bedroom houses. New and vintage. Subdivisible and not. On major roads such as Berwick, Albany, Canning and Shepparton as well as quiet streets unfrequented by traffic like our street.

Medians are a measure, but not a rule. The rule is comparing like for like. Same block size, same dwelling size, same condition, same area.

A "median" house in Perth is currently an old piece of shit some 180sqm or so on 450sqm of land 20km from the CBD or a new piece of shit poorly finished by parasitic builders a little smaller on a block half the size 50km from the CBD.

So to answer your question Buck no I don't own a Perth median property. But I do own either side of the median for the like for like in my suburbs.

Why do you ask? Did you have a point to make or once again are you contemplating your navel on matters you have no idea about?
Uncle Matty, that's where box plots can be useful to understand whether or not a "median-priced" house is relatively more valuable over a time range/

Do you understand why Uncle Matty?
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herbie
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Terry
11 Jan 2017, 02:42 AM
Uncle Matty, that's where box plots can be useful to understand whether or not a "median-priced" house is relatively more valuable over a time range/

Do you understand why Uncle Matty?
Not sure wot cemeteries have got ta do wif understandin' median house prices?

Oh well, they're a form of accommodation too I 'spose ... :)
Edited by herbie, 11 Jan 2017, 03:46 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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The high cost of snake oil is pricing many of you out of becoming a grandparent. A simple pleasure most have taken for granted over the generations and where even third world countries have not ruined this for themselves in the way we RICH have.

The words stupid stupid people come to mind, thinking you are so.ehow makimg yourselves rich but really destroying the basic riches of life. These are the results of very stupid, very greedy people that run the western governments and countries of the world.

They are treating you ALL like very stupid sheep, and taking a lot more than money from you people. Not only are they destroying your life and wealth now, they are destroying your future, that of your childs life and future, and robbing you of lifes real wealth and riches.

Silly silly stuff.
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Chris
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Matthew
11 Jan 2017, 02:05 AM

The "median" price for houses in Victoria Park according to REIWA is $652,500, some 4x what we paid when we were Chris' age but complained less because there was no internet forum to whinge on and got on with living instead.
20yrs ago you brought your house f***knuckle so are you telling the forum that your ability to buy a house in 1996 in Perth would be equal to or harder than any FHB looking to buy in Perth in 2014-15?

You are a simple pathetic loser, who in their right mind would come into a forum and sprout that shit expecting it to fly. Wipe your chin testy as the steaming mess is about to drip on the good carpet.

And your right, at the time there were no forums because there was no internet, other modern day essentials you weren't forced to pay for include, mobile phones, private health, and smashed avo on toast accompanied by an almond chai latte.

Edited by Chris, 11 Jan 2017, 07:17 AM.
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