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The high cost of snake oil
Topic Started: 7 Jan 2017, 10:18 AM (10,290 Views)
skamy
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zaph
9 Jan 2017, 06:37 PM
$250 000 rent per week is a little high today let alone 1990. You're not supposed to drink the furniture polish Skamy.
Thank you kindly for taking the time to point out my typo. Even little humourless posters like Zaph can be useful every now and again.
Chris
9 Jan 2017, 06:52 PM
Another fine example of you not understanding anything I have said. Pete understood it and so did Shadow, both acknowledged I was right but you read my posts and come worse for wear.

Go back and read the thread in its entirety, you have missed the point and are furiously typing up a meaningless keyboard war because of your inability to comprehend basic concepts.

Stop and read, don't list again until you have.
We are all three of us trying to get you to see through your silly doomster nonsense that money in a home is not real wealth - It is you who is trying to claim that whether you take the only alternative choice (ie to rent) that this is irrelevant to the debate.

I am simply explaining how ridiculous this standpoint is.

You have been sold a lemon Chris.
Edited by skamy, 10 Jan 2017, 12:29 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Rufus
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Chris
9 Jan 2017, 10:30 PM
You read my comments about practises brokers use along with main four banks in order to meet stress test requirements but if you want to neibtsin the half truths that's fine Pete at least everyone can see in black and white how deceitful you can be. 6.5%, you think everyone is as gullible as your clientele.

No I haven't read anything about things brokers do to meet stress tests but I would like to. Can I have the link?

and what does "neibtsin" mean?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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skamy
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Terry
9 Jan 2017, 07:26 PM
How would you quantify loan quality and why is it relevant to econometric models based around models based on debt? If you're saying debt growth or volume is irrelevant because debt quality is a key driver, how do you empirically prove it? By reading an opinion in the newspaper?
It is very easy to monitor deteriorating loan quality- you do not need econometrics nor models - you just need to follows the arrears rate and default rates. people have been doing it for years.
Chris
9 Jan 2017, 09:23 PM
No, a recommendation was made in 2014 and by your own quote a hypothetical testing of these recommendations found the banks were not following the rules. Then there's this gem

"APRA data shows a recent uptick in loans approved outside serviceability; anecdotal evidence indicates much of this relates to loans in the pipeline that were pre-approved under older, looser criteria now being settled. So we expect to see this volume taper off," Ms Richards noted.

So even up until March 2016 there was a significant number of loans being written outside this 7% recommendation. It also alludes to declared expenses by the mortgagee, indicating that applications may not reflect the true circumstances of the individual. Pete should know that this is an old favourite of brokers, it's amazing how the stress test of 7% that creates a shortfall of around $1200pm on a $500k can be eliminated by failing to disclose, I don't know, around $1200 of expenses.

Who do blokes think your kidding with this shit, you can't just throw out half truths and think there not going to be challenged. This is why no one trusts a word you say because it's always deceitful.
You are losing it Chris - you are in denial because you have already lost so much by betting with the doomster bloggers. You have to wake up some day soon.
Simon_S
9 Jan 2017, 10:02 PM
Nah, all money is fake and we are playing monopoly.......

What did the bank lend you again......

What do you go to work for again.....
Have you seriously never studied Germany's economy after the French took over their industries to pay for war reparations? What happened to cash?


Simon_S
9 Jan 2017, 10:16 PM
Private Debt is what some 125% of GDP now so what was in 2008?

Looks to have been around 107% in 2008. LOL....20% is just an uptick......

And yet they dropped the cash 4% in no time at all in 2008........wonder why.

So are you saying that if they left rates at where they were everything would still be fine?
Posted Image

This is a chart used by Mr Keen where he completely and utterly fails to notice that private debt to GDP has mostly been rising exponentially since 1945. This is over 70 years ago yet he claims this is not stable and not sustainable.

Do you understand why debt to income or debt to GDP rises like this. As you get wealthier you can borrow more. This has been true for both home buyers and our private enterprises who are included in this figure.

Steve Keen was at one stage predicting Sydney house prices to fall to being close to 1/4 of Tokyo house prices. He did not even report that this was the ridiculous conclusions his models had made. When challenged he even refused to provide the data he was using for his ridiculous predictions.

Yet here we are 10 years later and idiots are still falling for his nonsense.
Edited by skamy, 10 Jan 2017, 01:02 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Terry
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skamy
10 Jan 2017, 12:33 AM
It is very easy to monitor deteriorating loan quality- you do not need econometrics nor models - you just need to follows the arrears rate and default rates. people have been doing it for years.

You are losing it Chris - you are in denial because you have already lost so much by betting with the doomster bloggers. You have to wake up some day soon.

Have you seriously never studied Germany's economy after the French took over their industries to pay for war reparations? What happened to cash?



Posted Image

This is a chart used by Mr Keen where he completely and utterly fails to notice that private debt to GDP has mostly been rising exponentially since 1945. This is over 70 years ago yet he claims this is not stable and not sustainable.

Do you understand why debt to income or debt to GDP rises like this. As you get wealthier you can borrow more. This has been true for both home buyers and our private enterprises who are included in this figure.

Steve Keen was at one stage predicting Sydney house prices to fall to being close to 1/4 of Tokyo house prices. He did not even report that this was the ridiculous conclusions his models had made. When challenged he even refused to provide the data he was using for his ridiculous predictions.

Yet here we are 10 years later and idiots are still falling for his nonsense.
The puppeteer's letting you get right amongst it Roddy. Why is that relationship stable or unstable? It makes pure sense that there is a strong relationship between private debt and GDP, but what is the nature of the relationship Roddy? Does GDP drive private debt or is it the other way around? What mathematical function would help to explain that?
Rufus
9 Jan 2017, 06:51 PM
Keen doesn't care about loan quality.
To him it's irrelevant.
How do you measure loan quality anyway? All loans are good until they're bad I thought. What did they teach as a sales cadet? Is there an intrinsic value of loan quality? Can it be quantified? If not, what use is it?
Edited by Terry, 10 Jan 2017, 01:55 AM.
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Simon_S
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skamy
10 Jan 2017, 12:33 AM

Have you seriously never studied Germany's economy after the French took over their industries to pay for war reparations? What happened to cash?




Great so you're saying we are about to have a Complete Collapse of our Banking System and Hyperinflation as well?

Thanks for that.

Quick better tell everyone to pull their cash out of the Banking system then....Money Isn't safe.

Wonder what happens to "Quality" of Loans in that case aye skammy?

Oh wait then you agree with Steve Keen.............

AAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAHAH



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Chris
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I always find it quite amusing when APF members posing as the quintessential 'Aussie shella' just having a go in the market and making and millions, the facade seems to come crashing down when they start talking like a elite private school dick cum professional economist.

Pay war reparation, bwahahahah.

Do you really think people don't see through these socks shammy?

Or does your little Aussie battler story come with a wealthy private school blue chip education. Seeming though daddy brought you your first block of land maybe it does.

Credibility = Zero and falling

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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Chris
9 Jan 2017, 10:30 PM
I'm not ignorant, what part of what I said was ignorant?

I also add your personal comments have no correlation with what I wrote, what I stated had nothing to do with my personal views on property it's just factual. You blokes tried to present half truths and you got slammed.

It happens the best of us Shads, even a guru of deception like you.
Like I said Chris, I'm happy for you to continue believing what you believe. Stick to your guns, and wait for 'The Bubble' to burst.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rufus
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Chris
10 Jan 2017, 08:34 AM
Pay war reparation, bwahahahah.

Actually she is correct on that point. Do you know anything about the terms and conditions of the treaty of Versailles signed at the end of WW1. We all celebrate it on Armistice day every year on the 11th of November.

The terms imposed on Germany were so punishing that WW2 became inevitable, as did the rise of a fascist dictator in Germany.

After the hyperinflation era in Germany, it then became the miracle economy when they used a fiat money system and backed their currency with production, not gold, which is what we do now in Australia.

Learn your history Chris.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
10 Jan 2017, 09:49 AM
Like I said Chris, I'm happy for you to continue believing what you believe. Stick to your guns, and wait for 'The Bubble' to burst.

People will believe whatever they believe, they will also often be torn between two opposing beliefs, the difference between someone who simply believes and whines, and someone who believes and acts, is that the 2nd group are not frozen by a moral code that gives them the lame excuse to simply whine, but rather, act.

Which one are you K-Fiddler ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Simon_S
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Rufus
10 Jan 2017, 09:51 AM
Actually she is correct on that point. Do you know anything about the terms and conditions of the treaty of Versailles signed at the end of WW1. We all celebrate it on Armistice day every year on the 11th of November.

The terms imposed on Germany were so punishing that WW2 became inevitable, as did the rise of a fascist dictator in Germany.

After the hyperinflation era in Germany, it then became the miracle economy when they used a fiat money system and backed their currency with production, not gold, which is what we do now in Australia.

Learn your history Chris.
Great so you're also supporting Skammy's claim that money isn't safe in OUR Banking System....

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