It really doesn't matter where you stand politically on this issue, what matters is what will happen. So what do you expect to happen - immigration or no immigration. That's the question.
Well I good question. I can't tell the future so this is the way I'm leaning towards. I think that population growth will continue at its current amount as apposed to increase to maintain the current % of population. Public awareness (voters) of the problems associated with mass migration will curb enthusiasm and any great and deliberate efforts to decrease Emigration will be met with calls of racism .what's your thoughts?
Simon_S
6 Jan 2017, 10:35 AM
Read the document and look at the key factors that lead to the Housing Bubble.
Well I good question. I can't tell the future so this is the way I'm leaning towards. I think that population growth will continue at its current amount as apposed to increase to maintain the current % of population. Public awareness (voters) of the problems associated with mass migration will curb enthusiasm and any great and deliberate efforts to decrease Emigration will be met with calls of racism .what's your thoughts?
As the old baby boomers continue ta drop out of tha workforce in ever increasing numbers, tha nation will need ever increasing immigration ta replace 'em - Is my thought.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Well I good question. I can't tell the future so this is the way I'm leaning towards. I think that population growth will continue at its current amount as apposed to increase to maintain the current % of population. Public awareness (voters) of the problems associated with mass migration will curb enthusiasm and any great and deliberate efforts to decrease Emigration will be met with calls of racism .what's your thoughts? It will be an interesting day when the penny drops for the average punter
In regards to Immigration people will come here for opportunity but when the economy heads south so will they.
Also What politician will advocate for higher immigration when unemployment is rising.
The punters will only realize after the fact and in most cases will try and hold on in the hope of it turning around.
Am I reading this right? Are you guys calling me a sock? You really are a nice bunch aren't you? Well I guess there's not much chance of any great exchange of information if anyone that isn't gullible enough to believe that you can have ever expanding debt and there won't be a drawback at some point is labeled a sock. Sounds like something my daughter made up. I guess I'm dealing with some real thinkers here .
No - not much of a chance for an exchange of information at all. Let me summarise.
You posted a question about where money comes from. I replied.
You put forward a view that a growing economy needs ever expanding debt. I debunked that with a very simple example, proving your view as a myth.
You ignored my example and repeated your view asking what will happen if credit growth stops.
So I replied showing Government spending can offset private sector deleveraging and the economy can still grow (Japan & USA a great examples). I argued this was sustainable since Government’s like Australia / Japan / USA are not financial constrained (they have their own currency).
You ignored my arguments and repeated your view - again.
It became clear to me you were unwilling (or unable) to advance the discussion beyond your preconceived views. That’s fine. No rule here saying you have to engage in a debate. Just don’t complain when it is you that is unwilling to have a meaningful discussion. I have no interest in repeating myself.
As the old baby boomers continue ta drop out of tha workforce in ever increasing numbers, tha nation will need ever increasing immigration ta replace 'em - Is my thought.
That's a fair point. Might be a hard sell from a political aspect but certainly not out of the question given our options in regards to leadership.
Wotever Gonski 'n tha Socialists might like ta imagine, ya can't turn sows' ears inta silk purses; Ya can't turn pig shit inta strawberries.
So increasing unemployment or No, tha nation is still gunna need ('n benefit from) tha immigration of highly skilled 'n hard working migrants.
And all 'n any particularly thick 'n tired lazy locals, are gunna get munched - 'N deservedly so - For mine.
Can't all just be out 'n out brilliant traders making squillions for doin' squat in both risin' 'n fallin' markets apart from tradin' 'em Simon - Some of us are just inevitiably gunna have ta DO some useful 'n productive shit for a livin' - Well, 'til thingy's (forgot his name?) robots get ta do all tha thinkin' 'n other work on our behalf I guess ...
No - not much of a chance for an exchange of information at all. Let me summarise.
You posted a question about where money comes from. I replied.
You put forward a view that a growing economy needs ever expanding debt. I debunked that with a very simple example, proving your view as a myth.
You ignored my example and repeated your view asking what will happen if credit growth stops.
So I replied showing Government spending can offset private sector deleveraging and the economy can still grow (Japan & USA a great examples). I argued this was sustainable since Government’s like Australia / Japan / USA are not financial constrained (they have their own currency).
You ignored my arguments and repeated your view - again.
It became clear to me you were unwilling (or unable) to advance the discussion beyond your preconceived views. That’s fine. No rule here saying you have to engage in a debate. Just don’t complain when it is you that is unwilling to have a meaningful discussion. I have no interest in repeating myself.
I have taken lots so far from the group and learnt a few things. I have also changed some of my view points after conceding what are logical explanations. You simply don't make any sense to me and I have tried to illustrate why to no effect. All you keep doing is referring me to previous posts (which I have already and repeatedly expressed that I don't feel addresses my question) or perhaps you have explained it in a way that I personally find it hard to follow your point. In any case if you would like to try and explain trying a different method? If not that's fine and perhaps you may find contentment conversing with someone else.
Simon_S
6 Jan 2017, 11:32 AM
In regards to Immigration people will come here for opportunity but when the economy heads south so will they.
Also What politician will advocate for higher immigration when unemployment is rising.
The punters will only realize after the fact and in most cases will try and hold on in the hope of it turning around.
All very real possibilities. Australians haven't experience this type of negative feedback loop for a time and most would try and debunk whether it even exist.
zaph
6 Jan 2017, 11:41 AM
I'm not sure you know what emigration is, or why it comes with a capital?
Sorry immigration.
zaph
6 Jan 2017, 11:41 AM
I'm not sure you know what emigration is, or why it comes with a capital?
So do tell? You said I don't know? So therefore I don't know? So please explain ?
So I replied showing Government spending can offset private sector deleveraging and the economy can still grow (Japan & USA a great examples). I argued this was sustainable since Government’s like Australia / Japan / USA are not financial constrained (they have their own currency).
No it can't. The Japanese govt and central bank have spent and printed on a staggering scale. The household sector continues to "deleverage" and their consumption habits have dictated the transformation of the economy. Similar things have happened in the U.S., particularly regarding how debt leveraging transforms consumption behavior. Japan is light years ahead of the world in that regard.
Your manifesto tends to ignore the realities of how debt deleveraging is ultimately the burden of the suburbanites.
Rufus
6 Jan 2017, 10:51 AM
Terry, that's the point. thank you for highlighting it.
Well that suggests that "countries with immigration" are immune from asset bubbles and debt deleveraging. From economic history, we know that's nonsense.
No it can't. The Japanese govt and central bank have spent and printed on a staggering scale. The household sector continues to "deleverage" and their consumption habits have dictated the transformation of the economy. Similar things have happened in the U.S., particularly regarding how debt leveraging transforms consumption behavior. Japan is light years ahead of the world in that regard.
Your manifesto tends to ignore the realities of how debt deleveraging is ultimately the burden of the suburbanites.
What you are saying supports the point b_b is making. Government spending has allowed the private sector to deleverage in Japan. Similar in the USA but not nearly to the same extent.
Terry
6 Jan 2017, 12:27 PM
Well that suggests that "countries with immigration" are immune from asset bubbles and debt deleveraging. From economic history, we know that's nonsense.
Not at all, it says that with a growing population via immigration the demand for new housing will continue to be strong, and if supply doesn't meet demand prices will go up as the people with the ability to pay more will secure the available housing for their needs rather than go without.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy