This is the first chart I've seen that has a double effect. It severely deceives and apears as though it's a steady beautiful continuous upward trend. Thank you for highlighting the major pitfalls. The bulls like to paint rosy pictures don't they. I guess all bubbles need their fair share of hot air.
Yep - lets feed our bias by ignoring the gains.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
Crystal ball Predictions for the S&P/ASX 200 Index Broker End-2017 target (pts) Morgan Stanley 5450 UBS 5700 GS 5800 AMP Capital 5800 Deutsche Bank 5800 Macquarie 5875 Credit Suisse 6000 Average 5775 Median 5800 Source: Fairfax Media, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg 5666
Wow the highest forecast is 6000...............Ahhh to be a Buy and Hold investor.
2017 will be a challenge for many Australian markets in terms of capital growth as much depends on international movements.
Our $ and commodities will face significant trials with the result of slight declines in value/price.
As it was in 2016 property will be a mixed bag with the only likely winners being Melbourne and Sydney suburbs. There are a number of reasons for this one being a rotation of funds from regional portfolios to city based portfolios and the other being a continuation of O/S money looking for a home. It is likely the O\S money will increase significantly in 2017 (this will likely be the big story of 2017) and will support the localised markets mentioned. Elsewhere property portfolios will decline or trend in line with the reported GDP as investors look to hang on in the hope of a recovery.
The cash rate will stay the same or decline leaving those on variable interest rates no worse off and supporting the housing market however fixed rates will increase. I see no end to this diversification of rates will in the near future (2-3 years) and it will not end well when it does end. I expect the government to act on this late 2017 or early 2018 enforcing stricter lending requirements or increasing reserves for banks.
It is likely some countries will start increasing tariffs with many economies moving toward a more traditional infrastructure spend to increase economic growth...this won't work either but it will kick the can further down the road for a few years.
Just for laughs, the government will remove local tax benefits for properties vacant more than 90 days unless exceptional circumstances exist.
I hope everyone has a profitable 2017 wherever your invests are.
Lets ignore timing because it can only go up..................Eventually.
Oh wait the ASX200 still hasn't recovered from its losses during the GFC......Still 18% down.
This is exactly the point in the late 80s and all the other crashes - these low points recover and CATCH UP - the fact that the ASX is still lower than it was in 2007 is almost unheard of historically. It has to recover and recover strongly sometime soon.
People who do well buy in a downturn, Simon they are not like you running scared until prices start a strong sustained recovery.
Dump the doomsters Simon you personally stand to lose a lot of money to these negative losers who are always looking for something for nothing eg the economy will just crash - just like that - and Simon is gonna get a cheap house - or Simon's gold is going to rise to the moon etc etc. It is all silly nonsense which you will see right through one day. I just hope you do not miss too many good wealth building opportunities to these charlatans before you wake up to them.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy