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How far away is the big crash?; Is 2017 the year?
Topic Started: 1 Jan 2017, 03:08 PM (6,127 Views)
Rufus
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Tommy
2 Jan 2017, 06:15 PM
This is the first chart I've seen that has a double effect. It severely deceives and apears as though it's a steady beautiful continuous upward trend. Thank you for highlighting the major pitfalls. The bulls like to paint rosy pictures don't they. I guess all bubbles need their fair share of hot air.
Yep - lets feed our bias by ignoring the gains.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Simon_S
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Rufus
2 Jan 2017, 08:47 PM
Yep - lets feed our bias by ignoring the gains.
Lets ignore timing because it can only go up..................Eventually.

Oh wait the ASX200 still hasn't recovered from its losses during the GFC......Still 18% down.

Edited by Simon_S, 2 Jan 2017, 10:00 PM.
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Simon_S
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The big investment questions for 2017

Quote:
 
Crystal ball
Predictions for the S&P/ASX 200 Index
Broker End-2017 target (pts)
Morgan Stanley 5450
UBS 5700
GS 5800
AMP Capital 5800
Deutsche Bank 5800
Macquarie 5875
Credit Suisse 6000
Average 5775
Median 5800
Source: Fairfax Media, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg
5666


Wow the highest forecast is 6000...............Ahhh to be a Buy and Hold investor.

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economist
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2017 will be a challenge for many Australian markets in terms of capital growth as much depends on international movements.

Our $ and commodities will face significant trials with the result of slight declines in value/price.

As it was in 2016 property will be a mixed bag with the only likely winners being Melbourne and Sydney suburbs. There are a number of reasons for this one being a rotation of funds from regional portfolios to city based portfolios and the other being a continuation of O/S money looking for a home. It is likely the O\S money will increase significantly in 2017 (this will likely be the big story of 2017) and will support the localised markets mentioned. Elsewhere property portfolios will decline or trend in line with the reported GDP as investors look to hang on in the hope of a recovery.

The cash rate will stay the same or decline leaving those on variable interest rates no worse off and supporting the housing market however fixed rates will increase. I see no end to this diversification of rates will in the near future (2-3 years) and it will not end well when it does end. I expect the government to act on this late 2017 or early 2018 enforcing stricter lending requirements or increasing reserves for banks.

It is likely some countries will start increasing tariffs with many economies moving toward a more traditional infrastructure spend to increase economic growth...this won't work either but it will kick the can further down the road for a few years.

Just for laughs, the government will remove local tax benefits for properties vacant more than 90 days unless exceptional circumstances exist.

I hope everyone has a profitable 2017 wherever your invests are.



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Ex BP Golly
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Simon_S
2 Jan 2017, 07:39 AM
Great so look at these sell offs.

Start of WW1 -22%
1929 Crash - -46%
WW2 -32%
Korean War -34%
Credit squeeze -23%
Opec Crises -59% YES -59%
1987 Crash -50%
Recession -32%
Bond Crash -23%
Tech Wreck -22%
GFC -55% Yes-55%

And it doses that regularly............................on average say every 11 years

We still have not passed the pre GFC high of 6852 in Oct 2007. We are still 18% below that high.


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WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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herbie
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Sorries dudes - Tha Big Crash got cancelled back in early 2009 ... Tha central banks of tha world weren't keen ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Simon_S
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herbie
4 Jan 2017, 02:04 AM
Sorries dudes - Tha Big Crash got cancelled back in early 2009 ... Tha central banks of tha world weren't keen ... :)
Don't be sorry...It's just around the corner and Central banks won't be able to save it this time........

But I'm more than happy you believe they can..........
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Tommy
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herbie
4 Jan 2017, 02:04 AM
Sorries dudes - Tha Big Crash got cancelled back in early 2009 ... Tha central banks of tha world weren't keen ... :)
Hit the nail on the head.
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skamy
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Simon_S
2 Jan 2017, 09:39 PM
Lets ignore timing because it can only go up..................Eventually.

Oh wait the ASX200 still hasn't recovered from its losses during the GFC......Still 18% down.
This is exactly the point in the late 80s and all the other crashes - these low points recover and CATCH UP - the fact that the ASX is still lower than it was in 2007 is almost unheard of historically. It has to recover and recover strongly sometime soon.

People who do well buy in a downturn, Simon they are not like you running scared until prices start a strong sustained recovery.

Dump the doomsters Simon you personally stand to lose a lot of money to these negative losers who are always looking for something for nothing eg the economy will just crash - just like that - and Simon is gonna get a cheap house - or Simon's gold is going to rise to the moon etc etc. It is all silly nonsense which you will see right through one day. I just hope you do not miss too many good wealth building opportunities to these charlatans before you wake up to them.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
1 Jan 2017, 03:08 PM
Time to stick the thermometer up a bear's arse and see what it reads.
If you stuck your finger up this chart's arse instead, you might have noticed that since I have bought an IP, the crash has already started.

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Australian-Property-30-Year-Cycle.jpg~original


Posted Image
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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