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How far away is the big crash?; Is 2017 the year?
Topic Started: 1 Jan 2017, 03:08 PM (6,129 Views)
Simon_S
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skamy
2 Jan 2017, 01:27 AM
Posted Image
Great so look at these sell offs.

Start of WW1 -22%
1929 Crash - -46%
WW2 -32%
Korean War -34%
Credit squeeze -23%
Opec Crises -59% YES -59%
1987 Crash -50%
Recession -32%
Bond Crash -23%
Tech Wreck -22%
GFC -55% Yes-55%

And it doses that regularly............................on average say every 11 years

We still have not passed the pre GFC high of 6852 in Oct 2007. We are still 18% below that high.



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Rastus2
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Simon_S
2 Jan 2017, 07:39 AM
Great so look at these sell offs.

Start of WW1 -22%
1929 Crash - -46%
WW2 -32%
Korean War -34%
Credit squeeze -23%
Opec Crises -59% YES -59%
1987 Crash -50%
Recession -32%
Bond Crash -23%
Tech Wreck -22%
GFC -55% Yes-55%

And it doses that regularly............................on average say every 11 years

We still have not passed the pre GFC high of 6852 in Oct 2007. We are still 18% below that high.



Volatile prices are not fun, but it is the long recovery times that really do the harm.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
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The market always eats the weak.
When it works out how to theive your wealth, or turn you into a slave, it will do so.

If you have nothing they want, they send you to war.

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Simon_S
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Rastus2
2 Jan 2017, 09:02 AM

Volatile prices are not fun, but it is the long recovery times that really do the harm.
Not fun for a long only investor. But for a Trader volatility is great for quick returns.
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createdby
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Caracas Index was top performing global index for 2 years running 2012 to 2013.

http://www.cnbc.com/2013/12/31/here-it-isthe-worlds-top-performing-index-in-2013.html

I'm sure Zimbabwe industrial index shot to the moon too.
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insertusernamehere
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This poll is just ridiculous. Do people not realise a property crash takes years? As an example, Ireland took half a frigging decade to fall 40-60%. The peak alone was 2 years, and 3 years into the crash it was only down 10%. The entire collapse went from 2006-2013.

Even if the crash does arrive in 2017 (and that's assuming it hasn't already) it is not going to fall 40% in a single year. Morons.
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Simon_S
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insertusernamehere
2 Jan 2017, 10:46 AM
Even if the crash does arrive in 2017 (and that's assuming it hasn't already) it is not going to fall 40% in a single year. Morons.
Correct but Trollie and Company need to frame it that way to make it seem ridiculous.

And therefore an Impossibility.

But house prices fell from 1930 to 1946.......Only 16 years.

After 26 years of uninterrupted growth will come the Bust at a time when:

House prices are at Record Highs and Debt is at Record Highs.

All Trollie is really doing is getting people to commit to a time line so that he can Further run the But you said this and that and now you're wrong so it can't possible happen.....

Fun Times Indeed.


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createdby
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I like financial crises in this regard. Only takes a year to unfold.
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Trollie
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insertusernamehere
2 Jan 2017, 10:46 AM
This poll is just ridiculous. Do people not realise a property crash takes years? As an example, Ireland took half a frigging decade to fall 40-60%. The peak alone was 2 years, and 3 years into the crash it was only down 10%. The entire collapse went from 2006-2013.

Even if the crash does arrive in 2017 (and that's assuming it hasn't already) it is not going to fall 40% in a single year. Morons.
Incorrect most of the price action only took 12 months.

You morons have just been lambasted so many times you're too shit scared to commit to the 40% dream anymore :lol

To be clear, I reckon about 2019 Sydney will see a 20% fall from peak prices.
Edited by Trollie, 2 Jan 2017, 11:44 AM.
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Poontang
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skamy
2 Jan 2017, 01:27 AM
This is the 30 year chart of the ASX 200

Posted Image

Take a look at 1987.

Here is how it was reported at the time:




IMHO we are currently at about 1994 in the first chart above - 1994 was just catching up again with the highs of 1987 pre-crash. In 2017 we are just catching up again to the highs of 2007, so it has been a slower recovery than that from the 90s.
Here is a longer term trend chart on a non linear scale but showing many big crashes and the longer term growth. It is clear that we are just emerging from 10 years of stagnation, how can anyone expect a crash from here - surely, the obvious expectation, based on long term trends, would be for some serious growth.


Posted Image
I don't see a crash in our or the USA's equity markets either but a correction a strong possibility. The DOW likely to suffer a correction first and ours to suffer because of it.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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