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Will house prices crash 40% in 2017?
Yes in 3 months 3 (21.4%)
Yes in 6 months 3 (21.4%)
Yes in 12 months 3 (21.4%)
No the bears are idiots 5 (35.7%)
Total Votes: 14
How far away is the big crash?; Is 2017 the year?
Topic Started: 1 Jan 2017, 03:08 PM (6,123 Views)
Trollie
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Time to stick the thermometer up a bear's arse and see what it reads.
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Poontang
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What in? Property? Gold? Equities? Bonds?
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Simon_S
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I'm expecting 2019 to be when the shit hits the fan in Global Markets but the housing market may see difficulties sooner.

Rates are rising........

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Rufus
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This is an easy call. The BIG crash is always next year and it's always 40%.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Rastus2
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Trollie
1 Jan 2017, 03:08 PM
Time to stick the thermometer up a bear's arse and see what it reads.
you are the expert in sticking things up arses ... what did your probe of K tell you ?
Edited by Rastus2, 1 Jan 2017, 09:21 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
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Trolleys beacon on the hill.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Admiral Rimmer
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I think 2017 will be a Challenge for equities. I'm not sure about a big crash, but I struggle to see where the growth will come from too.

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Chris
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Rastus2
1 Jan 2017, 05:16 PM
you are the expert in sticking things up arses ... what did your probe of K tell you ?
Hahaha, talk about a localised boom!

Why would anyone bother posting a response just to run the risk of possibly legitimising such an insipid piece of shite like Trollie. Again I refer to the same sociopathic tendencies that would lead to someone even thinking about starting a thread with the sole purpose of denigrating others for their views.

Trollie is not inviting genuine conversation just a platform to pump his chest as a socially retarded f***wit with a superiority complex.

The worst part is he's just a sock so he's a pathetic incarnation of some other sociopathic idiot, the whole thing is very sad.
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Poontang
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Admiral Rimmer
1 Jan 2017, 08:41 PM
I think 2017 will be a Challenge for equities. I'm not sure about a big crash, but I struggle to see where the growth will come from too.

I feel the same way, unlikely to be a crash in property or gold ( >20%)

The ASX200 Could well see a fall in the range of 10% to 20% along with the DOW

AUD vs USD could see a 10% drop in value of AUD Depending on your views of the economy, this can be a good thing or a bad thing.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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skamy
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Poontang
1 Jan 2017, 11:15 PM
I feel the same way, unlikely to be a crash in property or gold ( >20%)

The ASX200 Could well see a fall in the range of 10% to 20% along with the DOW

AUD vs USD could see a 10% drop in value of AUD Depending on your views of the economy, this can be a good thing or a bad thing.
This is the 30 year chart of the ASX 200

Posted Image

Take a look at 1987.

Here is how it was reported at the time:
Quote:
 
In October 1987, the international Stock Market Slump saw markets crash around the world. The crisis originated when Japan and West Germany pushed up interest rates, pressuring US rates also to rise, triggering a massive sell off of US shares. Global share prices fell an average of 25%, but Australia saw a 40% decline.[1] 17 of the 18 major OECD economies experienced a recession in the early 1990s.[2]

Posted Image



IMHO we are currently at about 1994 in the first chart above - 1994 was just catching up again with the highs of 1987 pre-crash. In 2017 we are just catching up again to the highs of 2007, so it has been a slower recovery than that from the 90s.
Here is a longer term trend chart on a non linear scale but showing many big crashes and the longer term growth. It is clear that we are just emerging from 10 years of stagnation, how can anyone expect a crash from here - surely, the obvious expectation, based on long term trends, would be for some serious growth.


Posted Image
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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