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Prediction for Perth bottom
Topic Started: 27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM (2,358 Views)
Trollie
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newjez
28 Dec 2016, 01:43 PM
What has changed to stem the market freefall? Nothing.

Some people think that prices must rise because they have fallen, and they just have to rise.

There is no bottom.

Prices will fall until there is a reason for them not to.
This is why you guys get it so so wrong.

Prices falling slightly or failing to rise for 10 years IS SOMETHING CHANGING!!!!

How can you not see this blindingly obvious fact?
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Jimbo
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Trollie
28 Dec 2016, 01:52 PM
Prices falling slightly or failing to rise for 10 years IS SOMETHING CHANGING!!!!

How can you not see this blindingly obvious fact?
Prices have risen over the last ten years dolly. Prices have also fallen over the last ten years dolly.

They have done so in response to supply, demand, availability of funds and belief in expected future price movements.

They will continue to either rise or fall in response to the above until the end of time.

To attempt to predict future price movement, you need to look at each of the above and try to figure out whether they are positive or negative going forward.

Then you can make a case for why you think prices will rise or fall in the future.

It's a bit more complicated than simply saying "they haven't gone up for ten years so they must go up tomorrow".
Chris
28 Dec 2016, 06:11 AM
If this is anything to go by the bottom is something Perth can see from a distance as it free falls towards it. They are in that precarious position where they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Perth is a beacon for the Australian economy 2016-17, housing construction is the ONLY thing keeping their economy going. They need to do something to keep it going but they are already acutely aware that this will be a temporary fix that will invariably make the situation even worse.
I reckon the governments mindset is that this added incentive will kick off some kind of perpetual feedback loop and save the local economy.

A few more houses get built, a few more builders keep their jobs, unemployment rate falls a bit, more migrants see WA as their destination of choice, new demand is created, feedback loop kicks off.

They've put a time limit on the $5k as well in an attempt to push as many first time buyers as they can into the market in the shortest possible time frame.

But as we have witnessed since 2014, first time buyers moving into newly built houses, leave behind empty rentals.

So maybe the brickie who's job was temporarily reprieved by the $5k incentive ends up losing his IP tenant?

Feedback loops can work both ways.







Edited by Jimbo, 28 Dec 2016, 04:49 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Trollie
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 04:02 PM
Prices have risen over the last ten years dolly. Prices have also fallen over the last ten years dolly.

They have done so in response to supply, demand, availability of funds and belief in expected future price movements.

They will continue to either rise or fall in response to the above until the end of time.

To attempt to predict future price movement, you need to look at each of the above and try to figure out whether they are positive or negative going forward.

Then you can make a case for why you think prices will rise or fall in the future.
I've had more insightful turds than you jimbo.
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Jimbo
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Trollie
28 Dec 2016, 05:19 PM
I've had more insightful turds than you jimbo.
Great dolly.

So you now admit that your insight comes out of your arse.

It took a while for you to own up, but well done.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Terry
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 04:02 PM


It's a bit more complicated than simply saying "they haven't gone up for ten years so they must go up tomorrow".

Well you might be surprised that this is how most suburbanites think.

100 coin tosses. 99 heads. Most suburbanites will choose tails for next toss, but what influences their decision is unclear.

Show the suburbanites a curve on a linear path or parabolic curve and ask them to map its future direction. They will extrapolate the path or curve into the future based on its shape.

"Making a case" is used to justify business decisions, often which involve some assumption-laden P&L mapping. When it comes to asset markets or prices, advice or beliefs are far more powerful.

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newjez
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Trollie, if prices haven't moved much in the last ten years, that is because they moved much to much in the preceding five.

Something in the economy needs to change for Perth prices to rise.

Perth is in recession, and there is nothing on the horizon which will stop that slump.

People are leaving, houses are still being built at a rate in places like ellenbrook.

You do the maths mate.

With Trump and China, what from a macro economic standpoint will drive Perth prices?

Make an argument mate, don't just whine ,'they have to go up!!'
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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Terry
28 Dec 2016, 05:44 PM
Well you might be surprised that this is how most suburbanites think.

100 coin tosses. 99 heads. Most suburbanites will choose tails for next toss, but what influences their decision is unclear.

I read an interesting article the other day about a survey conducted just prior to the Brexit vote where respondents were asked various questions about politics and the economy.

The same survey was conducted again three months later.

The finding of the second survey was that respondents had greatly improved their knowledge of how the economy works and the political system they lived under.

A lot of this increase in knowledge came from post Brexit fallout discussions with workmates, friends and family.

A sort of collective awakening if you like?

Perth people are waking up to the fact that buying a cheap house on credit and renting it to someone who can't afford to buy a cheap house on credit because you just outbid them and pushed up the price, is no longer a path to a retirement spent in luxury.

So the governments response is to chuck yet another incentive at the priced out renter to have a new house built, abandon their rental and increase the housing supply?

Great news for anyone who doesn't own a house.

Shit news for anyone who has already built their house upon the sand.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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v_vijay
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 07:05 AM
If you are an Indian person looking to migrate here and you are looking for impartial information, you should probably choose a more "Western" sounding handle to avoid any possible prejudice.

Fred Smith, Joe Bloggs, Shane Kowolski.

But as you are a bull sock, you have the perfect handle.

Perth is down in the dumps and the only hope of rescue is overseas buyers seeing it as the "next big thing".
Thanks for the laugh. Believe it or not but not everyone in Australia is of Anglo descent.

I'm a Sydney-ite as you guys refer to it. Been on the forum 2 years longer than yourself. The whole concept of either being a bull or bear is incredibly stupid. An investor needs to be both.

I've always liked Perth. I work from home and the wife has some good job offers there. We've been considering renting out the PPOR in Sydney and moving to Perth.
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Jimbo
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v_vijay
28 Dec 2016, 06:27 PM
Thanks for the laugh. Believe it or not but not everyone in Australia is of Anglo descent.

I'm a Sydney-ite as you guys refer to it. Been on the forum 2 years longer than yourself. The whole concept of either being a bull or bear is incredibly stupid. An investor needs to be both.

I've always liked Perth. I work from home and the wife has some good job offers there. We've been considering renting out the PPOR in Sydney and moving to Perth.
Fair enough.

I've done a fair bit of that myself in the past.

Jumped from an expensive place to a cheaper place which is on the cusp of some kind of boom.

If you own a place in Sydney, you will get a lot of bang for your bucks out here at the moment.

Maybe a few 100,000 of you moving here at the same time and working from home will save the Perth RE market?






v_vijay
28 Dec 2016, 06:27 PM
The whole concept of either being a bull or bear is incredibly stupid. An investor needs to be both.
Not in property (apparently).

You need to nail your colours to the mast on here and then take the abuse from the other team.
Edited by Jimbo, 28 Dec 2016, 06:44 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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v_vijay
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 06:42 PM
If you own a place in Sydney, you will get a lot of bang for your bucks out here at the moment.



You need to nail your colours to the mast on here and then take the abuse from the other team.
That's the plan. Rent out the PPOR. I've also just sold a Sydney investment. The market has been very hot. Really insane action.

Looking for a place to park the funds. Perth seems cheap but I see more downside still.

I'm a bear at the moment but I always hedge my bets.
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