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Prediction for Perth bottom
Topic Started: 27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM (2,355 Views)
v_vijay
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Spent a couple of weeks in Perth city and surrounding suburbs this month. "For Lease" signs on almost all major commercial property.

All locals I spoke with said Perth was "in recession."

As a contrarian, I like to buy when no one else is. There already seems to be some bargains but I feel the pain is not over yet. I noticed a bit of construction still going on. Mostly apartment blocks.

For the Perth experts here, when do you see the bottom as being in?
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Trollie
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LOL.

Can't wait to see this one.
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ozz
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v_vijay
27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM
Spent a couple of weeks in Perth city and surrounding suburbs this month. "For Lease" signs on almost all major commercial property.

All locals I spoke with said Perth was "in recession."

As a contrarian, I like to buy when no one else is. There already seems to be some bargains but I feel the pain is not over yet. I noticed a bit of construction still going on. Mostly apartment blocks.

For the Perth experts here, when do you see the bottom as being in?
At least 2-3 years until we see any form of positivity, maybe 5 years before we next see a real sellers market.
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Jimbo
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v_vijay
27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM
Spent a couple of weeks in Perth city and surrounding suburbs this month. "For Lease" signs on almost all major commercial property.
The state government have just postponed the bottom by a few months at least by chucking another $5 grand at first home buyers of new property.

Further incentive for first time buyers to ignore established property when making their buying choice.

It is hoped that this $5k carrot will rescue Barnetts plan to transition from a mining economy (which he started a a good few years too early).

Hard to say when the bottom will be in for property prices because the high isn't in yet for unemployment and the low hasn't been reached yet for population growth.

The current unemployment rate will be a major deciding factor for migrants looking to move to Perth in a year or two's time. Lower population growth is not good for IP owners who are watching their tenants move out into state incentivised new builds.

This thing has got a way to run yet.

You could say, it is just getting underway.

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As a contrarian, I like to buy when no one else is.
I have a bag of dogshit which nobody wants to buy. Yours for $100.


Trollie
27 Dec 2016, 08:54 PM
Can't wait to see this one.
What can't you wait to see?

The jizz splattering over your keyboard as IO prices go up by 1 cent?

The colour of your tongue after it has spent hours rimming a bulls arse?
Edited by Jimbo, 28 Dec 2016, 05:01 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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v_vijay
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 04:59 AM
The state government have just postponed the bottom by a few months at least by chucking another $5 grand at first home buyers of new property.

Further incentive for first time buyers to ignore established property when making their buying choice.

It is hoped that this $5k carrot will rescue Barnetts plan to transition from a mining economy (which he started a a good few years too early).

Hard to say when the bottom will be in for property prices because the high isn't in yet for unemployment and the low hasn't been reached yet for population growth.

The current unemployment rate will be a major deciding factor for migrants looking to move to Perth in a year or two's time. Lower population growth is not good for IP owners who are watching their tenants move out into state incentivised new builds.

This thing has got a way to run yet.

You could say, it is just getting underway.
I saw that about the increased first home grant. Will only lead to increase in supply. Will be interesting to watch this play out.

FWIW, I'm tracking apartment prices in West Perth. I also like Claremont and Peppermint Grove for houses.

My own thoughts is that we're still more than a year off any bottom.
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Chris
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v_vijay
27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM
Spent a couple of weeks in Perth city and surrounding suburbs this month. "For Lease" signs on almost all major commercial property.

All locals I spoke with said Perth was "in recession."

As a contrarian, I like to buy when no one else is. There already seems to be some bargains but I feel the pain is not over yet. I noticed a bit of construction still going on. Mostly apartment blocks.

For the Perth experts here, when do you see the bottom as being in?
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-27/first-home-buyers-grant-boost-met-with-concern-from-sector/8150000

If this is anything to go by the bottom is something Perth can see from a distance as it free falls towards it. They are in that precarious position where they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Perth is a beacon for the Australian economy 2016-17, housing construction is the ONLY thing keeping their economy going. They need to do something to keep it going but they are already acutely aware that this will be a temporary fix that will invariably make the situation even worse.

Once completed they will have an even higher vacancy rate and 3,000 more unemployed, the only go to for them then is rinse and repeat.

Picking the bottom might be a delusion you feel comforts entertaining vijay?

Would be nice to have one of our expert bulls give a month/year for their prediction on Perths bottom. I believe one person of legendary status once predicted Perth would have a median of $1m by 2020, what happened to this superior intellect anyway?
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Jimbo
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v_vijay
28 Dec 2016, 05:55 AM
I saw that about the increased first home grant. Will only lead to increase in supply. Will be interesting to watch this play out.

FWIW, I'm tracking apartment prices in West Perth. I also like Claremont and Peppermint Grove for houses.

My own thoughts is that we're still more than a year off any bottom.
If you are an Indian person looking to migrate here and you are looking for impartial information, you should probably choose a more "Western" sounding handle to avoid any possible prejudice.

Fred Smith, Joe Bloggs, Shane Kowolski.

But as you are a bull sock, you have the perfect handle.

Perth is down in the dumps and the only hope of rescue is overseas buyers seeing it as the "next big thing".

So if you were Skammy, Mikey, BP or Matey, an Indian contrarian investor is the cavalry about to come charging over the hill.

So you would invent an Indian contrarian investor to post a message on this site stating that he is poised to buy.

Nice try fellas.

Total fail.

Edited by Jimbo, 28 Dec 2016, 07:06 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Trollie
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ROFL

And you idiots didn't disappoint.

The "big crash" is about 12 months away - CHECK

The "big crash" can't be avoided - CHECK

Emotive rants - CHECK


BINGO!!!

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Terry
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Chris
28 Dec 2016, 06:11 AM
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-27/first-home-buyers-grant-boost-met-with-concern-from-sector/8150000

If this is anything to go by the bottom is something Perth can see from a distance as it free falls towards it. They are in that precarious position where they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Perth is a beacon for the Australian economy 2016-17, housing construction is the ONLY thing keeping their economy going. They need to do something to keep it going but they are already acutely aware that this will be a temporary fix that will invariably make the situation even worse.

Once completed they will have an even higher vacancy rate and 3,000 more unemployed, the only go to for them then is rinse and repeat.

Picking the bottom might be a delusion you feel comforts entertaining vijay?

Would be nice to have one of our expert bulls give a month/year for their prediction on Perths bottom. I believe one person of legendary status once predicted Perth would have a median of $1m by 2020, what happened to this superior intellect anyway?
Free money being bandied around to keep the economy moving. It's not much more than social welfare. Why the need to influence suburbanite behavior? Why not let the market dictate what happens? Too many questions, so few answers.
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newjez
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v_vijay
27 Dec 2016, 08:50 PM
Spent a couple of weeks in Perth city and surrounding suburbs this month. "For Lease" signs on almost all major commercial property.

All locals I spoke with said Perth was "in recession."

As a contrarian, I like to buy when no one else is. There already seems to be some bargains but I feel the pain is not over yet. I noticed a bit of construction still going on. Mostly apartment blocks.

For the Perth experts here, when do you see the bottom as being in?
What has changed to stem the market freefall? Nothing.

Some people think that prices must rise because they have fallen, and they just have to rise.

There is no bottom.

Prices will fall until there is a reason for them not to.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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