Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
Residex December Market Update: Sydney median house price reaches $1.106M in November 2016
Topic Started: 22 Dec 2016, 02:19 PM (1,532 Views)
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Residex December Market Update

Dec 21 2016

In the year to November 2016, Australian dwelling values saw an increase of 4.49%. This is above the 3.77% annual growth average since 2009, when Australia felt the effects of the 2008 GFC. However, growth was below the November 2015 figure of 6.63%.

Posted Image

Table 1 shows the repeat sale growth summary for the major Australian dwelling markets at November. The highest growth for the November quarter was in Hobart houses, where the median repeat sale value increased 2.39% in the last 3 months. Hobart houses also had the strongest growth of the major aggregate markets in 2016, with a 6.01% increase in the year to November.

While these figures are low relative to the double digit growth seen in 2014-15 (for example Sydney houses increased 15.71% in the year to November 2015), major Australian housing markets are likely to return to norms of single digit dwelling growth as softening economic conditions catch up with dwelling demand.

ACT houses increased in value over the quarter, and displayed a healthy return of 3.32% over the year. However, the Mr Fluffy buyback scheme continues to put pressure on this market, with high construction costs potentially inflating growth figures.

Hobart dwelling values were expected to increase over 2016 as those priced out of the Sydney and Melbourne markets looked elsewhere for affordable capital growth strategies. The latest Residex State Market Report highlights the many benefits of the area, which include excellent agricultural produce, its popularity as a ‘staycation’ and international destination as the Australian dollar has fallen over the year, and its relative affordability.

Melbourne houses and units were also strong performers in the November quarter, with quarterly growth of 2.18% and 1.57% respectively. Despite persistently high prices, Sydney houses and units were not far behind, increasing 2.18% and 1.30%.

Sydney and Melbourne continued to be popular with investors as well as overseas and interstate migrants over 2016. According to ABS lending data from October this year, approximately 49% of new loans (excluding those for re-financing) were comprised of investors. Part of the resurgence in investor activity may be explained by expansionary monetary policy.

In September, Sydney dwellings experienced an uplift in annual capital growth – following the August rate cut decision – while Melbourne growth continued to ease. However, as the rate of capital gain across Melbourne has typically shown a slight lag on Sydney, Melbourne could also see growth rates pushed up in Q1 2017. These movements are displayed in Graph 2.

Read more: http://www.blog.residex.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/2016/12/21/december-market-update-2
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


Perth basically flat for 10 years according to Residex. Sydney back to around 7.5%pa 10 year growth. Also back the historical situation where the median house price in Brisbane and Perth is half that of Sydney, and most other capitals lower again. Fascinating!
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Sydneyite
22 Dec 2016, 02:49 PM
Perth basically flat for 10 years according to Residex. Sydney back to around 7.5%pa 10 year growth. Also back the historical situation where the median house price in Brisbane and Perth is half that of Sydney, and most other capitals lower again. Fascinating!
Indeed it really puts the nonsense about it being a bubble to bed. What's fascinating with Perth is it essentially stayed flat through a mining boom.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:26 PM
What's fascinating with Perth is it essentially stayed flat through a mining boom.

did it ?

Seems like it went up a lot, and then deflated... 10 year figure does not show the whole story.

Posted Image


Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 03:37 PM

did it ?

Seems like it went up a lot, and then deflated... 10 year figure does not show the whole story.

Posted Image

The mining boom didn't really kick off until 2006, so i'd argue the largest capital gains came before the boom.

I'm defining boom by the number of people employed in mining.

Posted Image

If you look back prior to that period they also had a long period of low capital gains.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:41 PM
The mining boom didn't really kick off until 2006, so i'd argue the largest capital gains came before the boom.

I'm defining boom by the number of people employed in mining.

Posted Image

If you look back prior to that period they also had a long period of low capital gains.
hmm.. I would argue people started flooding to WA from 2004/5.
Posted Image


That matches nicely with my earlier chart showing prices ramping up from around 2004.. people knew a rush was on and bought before they moved there ?? ... interesting they hit a brick wall prior to 2007, while net migration was still positive... perhaps the writing was on the wall, or perhaps the limits of what people were willing to pay despite mania were reached.

RE: previous low capital gains... yup... fair enough... after a long spell like that, bulls charge.... it certainly happened in Tassie.
Edited by Rastus2, 22 Dec 2016, 04:20 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 04:18 PM
hmm.. I would argue people started flooding to WA from 2004/5.
Posted Image


That matches nicely with my earlier chart showing prices ramping up from around 2004.. people knew a rush was on and bought before they moved there ?? ... interesting they hit a brick wall prior to 2007, while net migration was still positive... perhaps the writing was on the wall, or perhaps the limits of what people were willing to pay despite mania were reached.

RE: previous low capital gains... yup... fair enough... after a long spell like that, bulls charge.... it certainly happened in Tassie.
Definitely fleeing like rats on a sinking ship at the moment. Where are they going and what will they do?
Edited by Terry, 22 Dec 2016, 05:11 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jon Snow
Member Avatar


Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:26 PM
Indeed it really puts the nonsense about it being a bubble to bed.
7.5% is 2-3 times wages you turnip! The very definition of a bubble.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


Jon Snow
22 Dec 2016, 07:50 PM
7.5% is 2-3 times wages you turnip! The very definition of a bubble.
Well except the *preceding* 10 years saw very little growth in Sydney prices - less than wages growth and CPI. The last 10 are just catch-up, with probably a bit of an over-shoot.
Edited by Sydneyite, 22 Dec 2016, 07:54 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Jon Snow
22 Dec 2016, 07:50 PM
7.5% is 2-3 times wages you turnip! The very definition of a bubble.
Maybe in the midst of the keyboard mashing you missed the part where it had been flat for 10 years prior?
Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 04:18 PM
hmm.. I would argue people started flooding to WA from 2004/5.
Posted Image


That matches nicely with my earlier chart showing prices ramping up from around 2004.. people knew a rush was on and bought before they moved there ?? ... interesting they hit a brick wall prior to 2007, while net migration was still positive... perhaps the writing was on the wall, or perhaps the limits of what people were willing to pay despite mania were reached.

RE: previous low capital gains... yup... fair enough... after a long spell like that, bulls charge.... it certainly happened in Tassie.
I agree it started in 04/05, but from that level it was still below the previous levels so I wouldn't call it boom territory, nor would anyone really identify it as a boom from just employment numbers.

You average rates were also higher during the price growth in perth. So low rates and high mining employment and high immigration did nothing to boost perth prices significantly.

It looks for all the world like the best predictor to price rises, is an absence of price rises for an extended period combined with positive population growth.
Edited by Trollie, 22 Dec 2016, 08:14 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Join the millions that use us for their forum communities. Create your own forum today.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy