Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
Automation to cause 40% unemployment by 2030 leading to a housing crash?
Topic Started: 22 Dec 2016, 12:32 PM (3,620 Views)
skamy
Member Avatar


Jimbo
24 Dec 2016, 06:54 AM
But when that human labour is replaced?

it will be.

What happens then?
Are you serious?

Money is useless sitting in the bank - it has no value whatsoever.

If you are rich you own tokens to buy resources and labour - hungry people find ways to get those tokens. There is always some new thing to sell to the rich. This is what drives the economy. We have watched people leave factory jobs and farming jobs and what happened - more people went to uni and got jobs in IT, playing games with money etc etc.


Humans are creative and adaptable to imagine that after so many thousands of years we will find ourselves in a situation with 40% of the population unemployed is seriously mad in the head. The doomsters get more desperate by the day selling this crap to young people who do not know any better.
Rastus2
24 Dec 2016, 09:19 AM
Yes, however that does not mean the tech must have a large factory environment to be useful.

Which is why things like the fax machine and PC worked on a large scale, but operated in a small office environment.




So what ?



Once again.. so what.

Across the globe, anything up to 60% unemployment exists (80% if you wish to include Zimbabwe (2008).... if your claim covered all people, it would not be so.

Just because it is unwise to have large numbers of people unemployed, does not magically make it not happen in the world... it has not in the past, and it will not in the future. As an overall situation most people agree, near full employment is a good social policy, as a reality, individuals (and companies) strive to minimize their costs of production and make decisions that often cut rather than protect jobs.

Without mechanized farming, mining, and factories, one could imagine how many more people would be required to create/mine the products we currently do...


The basics are not hard to forget. History has shown us that 100 people's work can be leveraged through tech to greatly reduce that number.... luckily, new jobs have been created to offset some of that, however I would not expect that to continue forever.

Douglas Adams mocked it best when all of the phone hygienists and other pointless professions were put on a space ship and sent out to a new colony, in order to get rid of them.
I can assure you that many of these people are employed - maybe just not doing the kind of work that pays the taxman. However, they keep many an insurance salesman in a job lol.
Edited by skamy, 24 Dec 2016, 10:37 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Rastus2
24 Dec 2016, 09:19 AM


Across the globe, anything up to 60% unemployment exists (80% if you wish to include Zimbabwe (2008).... if your claim covered all people, it would not be so.

Just because it is unwise to have large numbers of people unemployed, does not magically make it not happen in the world... it has not in the past, and it will not in the future. As an overall situation most people agree, near full employment is a good social policy, as a reality, individuals (and companies) strive to minimize their costs of production and make decisions that often cut rather than protect jobs.
Maybe in undeveloped economies, but in the developed world it's hard to see a situation where automation is the cause of it simply because it's self limiting.

If you strip all the employment out of the economy, private business won't have the capital to deploy automation.

Think about it, if everyone is unemployed labour is cheap, so the automation business case doesn't stack up against cheap labour
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jon Snow
Member Avatar


Trollie
24 Dec 2016, 10:53 AM
Maybe in undeveloped economies, but in the developed world it's hard to see a situation where automation is the cause of it simply because it's self limiting.

If you strip all the employment out of the economy, private business won't have the capital to deploy automation.


Not quite.

There will be employment, but it will be employment by the government. To pay for this, the government will need to tax the corporations that deploy robots to replace people. Or, we create a new type of monetary system.

There will be software programmers and robotics engineers employed on high salaries. They will be employed in the country with the most attractive environment for them.

Those on government jobs will all be paid roughly the same salary. There will be grades of course, but the bulk of them will be paid about the same, which will mean incomes will converge to the middle, and most incomes will rise by government fiat, not through market forces.

To protect the engineers from those whose aspirations lead them to considering violent crime, and encourage those engineers to stay, the environment will need to be made "safe", which is code for a police state. The police state will also be largely automated, but will also employ large numbers of people to prevent all out revolution.
Quote:
 
Think about it, if everyone is unemployed labour is cheap, so the automation business case doesn't stack up against cheap labour
Not true. Unskilled labour cannot compete with skilled robotics. As you automate, education and skills training goes into decline, as there are fewer jobs for graduates. Eventually you de-skill the bottom half of the workforce, making them even more unemployable, but completely dependent on the state. Those who are dependent on the state in a democracy vote for their continuing dependence.

Edited by Jon Snow, 24 Dec 2016, 01:00 PM.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Trollie
24 Dec 2016, 10:53 AM

If you strip all the employment out of the economy, private business won't have the capital to deploy automation.

Think about it, if everyone is unemployed labour is cheap, so the automation business case doesn't stack up against cheap labour

This makes perfect sense, however there is a limit to how cheap labor can get in the developed world before things turn ugly and it's not worth being employed.
BTW, I am not expecting everyone to be unemployed... but an unemployment/underemployment rate if the 30 % in the developed world is certainly possible at some point if civil unrest and political desperation does not break out.

Consider this... if the fax machine remained it's original cost, then yes, it would never have been mass produced and rolled out. If email was as expensive and slow as snail mail, it would not have taken off and limited the massive reduction of postal workers.

Sure, If the response to emails was that wages reduced such that snail mail employees were as cheap as email to operate, and, magically, as fast, then yes, they would all be employed doing that... however, in the real world, they can not live and work that cheap... automation and economy of scale often swamps the motivation of employees to keep their jobs.

What happens is tech becomes cheaper, especially in mass production and with advances... it becomes far cheaper than multiple employees, so is deployed... If it flops, then fine... but a number of years later, someone else attempts to do it again... rinse, repeat..


What career would you direct a 13 year old child towards in Australia ?
Edited by Rastus2, 24 Dec 2016, 01:26 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Jon Snow
24 Dec 2016, 12:59 PM

Unskilled labour cannot compete with skilled robotics.
This is where your premise is wrong.

Even in the most blue collar shit shoveler jobs there's a surprising degree of skill. Robotics by definition are unskilled - Skill is defined as a professional knowledge and artistry at a task. Robots have none of this, they are simply good at repeating a task, they have no concept of what they are doing or well it's being done.

Take concreting as an example. As blue collar as it gets. Looks like the perfect job for a robot, so why do we still have concreters? Because it's so dynamic you'd throw a million bucks at a robot that wouldn't do 50% of the job of a worker who you can pay $75k/pa. Workers also have the advantage of being sackable when they suck at a job. Sink capital into a robot which is no good, your money is gone so the risk is high.
Rastus2
24 Dec 2016, 01:24 PM



What career would you direct a 13 year old child towards in Australia ?
If they are smart, dentist or a vet. If they are average, sparky. If they are dumb, teacher or public service.
Edited by Trollie, 24 Dec 2016, 02:12 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Jon Snow
24 Dec 2016, 12:59 PM

Not quite.

There will be employment, but it will be employment by the government. To pay for this, the government will need to tax the corporations that deploy robots to replace people. Or, we create a new type of monetary system.

There will be software programmers and robotics engineers employed on high salaries. They will be employed in the country with the most attractive environment for them.

Those on government jobs will all be paid roughly the same salary. There will be grades of course, but the bulk of them will be paid about the same, which will mean incomes will converge to the middle, and most incomes will rise by government fiat, not through market forces.

To protect the engineers from those whose aspirations lead them to considering violent crime, and encourage those engineers to stay, the environment will need to be made "safe", which is code for a police state. The police state will also be largely automated, but will also employ large numbers of people to prevent all out revolution.

Not true. Unskilled labour cannot compete with skilled robotics. As you automate, education and skills training goes into decline, as there are fewer jobs for graduates. Eventually you de-skill the bottom half of the workforce, making them even more unemployable, but completely dependent on the state. Those who are dependent on the state in a democracy vote for their continuing dependence.
Do you never see the madness you post ? Why have you believed this dark fantasy future? You chose to do this and it is not good for you as it keeps you in too much fear of the future and makes you very poor at risk management.

Drop the doomsters and cheer up a bit - the chances are we will continue to progress and build lovely new things for each other to enjoy.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Trollie
24 Dec 2016, 02:08 PM

If they are smart, dentist or a vet. If they are average, sparky. If they are dumb, teacher or public service.

They are smart ;)

Dentist - considered that, but the profession is getting flooded and it's not going to be as lucrative as it used to be, although the whole BB will help counter that .. just had to break it to my dental practice of > 12 years that I am getting my crown down at a new place... less than 1/2 the price, all still Australian product.

Vet - Yes, I was encouraging this also.. it can be very rewarding. Downside is unless you grow up with a lot of animals, you don't quite appreciate what you are in for... also, you end up with quite a lot of "baggage".

Sparky - tried to steer my nephew that way. Even if the kid is smart, it's an easy way to setup a business and end up being in charge of a crew that can tender out.

Teacher - I would not steer anyone towards that profession.

Public service - depends on the service... if it's health, and they are interested, then yes, but I would steer them if they were smart, not dumb. Most other public service jobs are not that attractive, and the whole public service "job for life" is a myth going forward.

So many other jobs I could think of seem somewhat doomed... well, doomed for the numbers of people heading towards them.

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


Rastus2
24 Dec 2016, 06:34 PM

They are smart ;)

Dentist - considered that, but the profession is getting flooded and it's not going to be as lucrative as it used to be, although the whole BB will help counter that .. just had to break it to my dental practice of > 12 years that I am getting my crown down at a new place... less than 1/2 the price, all still Australian product.

Vet - Yes, I was encouraging this also.. it can be very rewarding. Downside is unless you grow up with a lot of animals, you don't quite appreciate what you are in for... also, you end up with quite a lot of "baggage".

Sparky - tried to steer my nephew that way. Even if the kid is smart, it's an easy way to setup a business and end up being in charge of a crew that can tender out.

Teacher - I would not steer anyone towards that profession.

Public service - depends on the service... if it's health, and they are interested, then yes, but I would steer them if they were smart, not dumb. Most other public service jobs are not that attractive, and the whole public service "job for life" is a myth going forward.

So many other jobs I could think of seem somewhat doomed... well, doomed for the numbers of people heading towards them.
I should add anaesthetist to that list for smart as well. Those guys make out like bandits.

I suggested teacher or public service for the dumb ones because it pays ok through thick and thin and it's almost impossible to get fired.

I don't agree that having a lot of people dooms jobs, people create jobs. The trick is to keep unemployment low with people have money in the wallet to service jobs.
Edited by Trollie, 24 Dec 2016, 06:39 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jon Snow
Member Avatar


Trollie
24 Dec 2016, 02:08 PM
This is where your premise is wrong.

Even in the most blue collar shit shoveler jobs there's a surprising degree of skill. Robotics by definition are unskilled - Skill is defined as a professional knowledge and artistry at a task.
Well, thanks for sharing your ignorance on the current state of robotics.
Quote:
 
Robots have none of this, they are simply good at repeating a task, they have no concept of what they are doing or well it's being done.
Incorrect.
Quote:
 
Take concreting as an example. As blue collar as it gets. Looks like the perfect job for a robot, so why do we still have concreters? Because it's so dynamic you'd throw a million bucks at a robot that wouldn't do 50% of the job of a worker who you can pay $75k/pa. Workers also have the advantage of being sackable when they suck at a job. Sink capital into a robot which is no good, your money is gone so the risk is high
What about bricklaying?
http://fbr.com.au/

Faster and better than a human. In fact, faster and better than 5 humans.

Keep on dreaming though.
skamy
24 Dec 2016, 02:31 PM
Do you never see the madness you post ?
Don't be an idiot.
Quote:
 
Why have you believed this dark fantasy future?
On the contrary, my future is optimistic. As opposed to your dreams of future generations being enslaved to pay you rent.
Quote:
 
You chose to do this and it is not good for you as it keeps you in too much fear of the future and makes you very poor at risk management.
I'm not worried about the future. I have been working for decades to acquire the skills that will be needed in the future. Unlike a potato farmer who still thinks like a medieaval peasant.
Quote:
 
Drop the doomsters and cheer up a bit - the chances are we will continue to progress and build lovely new things for each other to enjoy.
You don't think that replacing human labour with robots is progress?
Edited by Jon Snow, 24 Dec 2016, 07:51 PM.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mallard
Default APF Avatar
Thread killer

The surname 'Fuller' is common in Australia. The fullers used to trample sheep fleeces in their own piss. It was a job. Nobody does it now.

There are new jobs for old. If we still paid people to fuller wool there would have been no room for other jobs and clothes would cost more of our wage

The Luddites started this and they would have found this forum welcoming, at least as bears.

Progress is scary if you aren't part of the train.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Join the millions that use us for their forum communities. Create your own forum today.
Learn More · Sign-up Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy