The reality is, we dont really know how much it will ultimately effect things. But the rapid advancements show things we once thought were safe ,are now not so safe.
The idea that these jobs will somehow be replaced elsewhere is rather unrealistic. The whole idea is to replace the inefficient, more costly human.
What can I say, the horse and the motorcar, but where we are the horse trying to compete against the machine.
As more companies use technology, the price will come down and SME will start using AI & that is when it will hit the Aussie housing market hard.
yes, that's why it costs less for big producers like Rio & BHP to produce a tonne of iron ore, as compared to the smaller producers who do not use as much technology... The thing with technology is that it is costly to implement, but the cost saving is huge when it's in place... sooner or later, like you said, SME will need to incorporate technology or risk being obsolete...
You probably didn't know that AI had beaten the grandmasters in Chess & Go, the intelligent human that programmed the AI can't even beat it.there're already programs that made more accurate diagnosis than specialist doctors (based on x-ray films)And also, AI trading on the rise... the list goes on...
*Yamn* I knew all those things - probably before you did! Chess programs have been around since at least the 60s.... Programming a computer to play chess is NOT machine learning - it's just a computer program that takes advantage of the capacity for huge amounts of computations to be done in a very short space of time.
Not being able to beat my own chess program at chess is meaningless - I can program a computer to calculate N^12 * PI, and no matter what it will always complete that calculation in a few nanoseconds and beat me by a mile if I try and work it out myself, even though I wrote the program telling the computer how to do it.
Medical diagnosis systems are just old school "AI" systems which are essentially computational implementations of decision trees - also know as knowledge based systems. I did stuff like that in the early 90s at uni. They get better today because you can process and store much more data much more easily, and do more computations in a certain time than in the past. Same with AI based "trading" systems as well really. There is no such thing as true "machine learning" in the sense that a machine could truly replicate creative design / human innovation and creative thought.
So really all that is happening is that *automation* is continuing to be applied to more activities as technology becomes more accessible and develops, and data becomes more ubiquitous and available - this is a process that has been going on since the start of the industrial revolution. I don't believe it is anything to fear.
yes, that's why it costs less for big producers like Rio & BHP to produce a tonne of iron ore, as compared to the smaller producers who do not use as much technology.
Utter rubbish. Their lower cost per tonne is mostly down to their deposits and their higher volume.
Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 03:51 PM
are you being serious ?
That's like saying the use of the hammer will never catch on because it took so many people to build them in the 1st place.
Even if it takes 100 people to design, program and build the 1st AI Chess engine that can beat the best human chess player in the world ... do you really think it will take another 100 people to build the 2nd one ?
No it's like saying the computer won't do us all out of a job because it can win a game of chess.
Remember in the 80's when we were all supposed to lose our jobs to computers and it didn't happen?
popey
22 Dec 2016, 03:58 PM
how do a blue collar worker like yourself ever understand the use of machines & software in a dynamic environment? That's why I stopped answering your questions... you don't even understand that once a software is built, it takes very few pple to maintain it, software only improve
Yes poopey sure, that's why microsoft and google employ 10's of thousands of people, because once the software is built there's nothing more to do.
Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 04:07 PM
fair point.. however what makes you think that the workplace will continue to be such a dynamic environment without humans making it so ? Manufacturing and ports used to be dynamic, and has become more and more ordered as fewer humans were required.
The abilities of sensors is the big limitation.
Self driving cars are only just becoming a thing because the computer's abilities to sense the world are slowly catching up. Even self driving cars aren't a huge step forward considering it just runs to a set of predicable rules. No machine has the ability to wing it like a person when there's a system failure.
I wanted your thoughts on technology making peoples occupations redundant over the next 15 years.
It will make millions redundant. But let's be honest, tens of millions are already employed in nothing jobs, doing nothing, producing nothing, adding nothing. That could potentially go to hundreds of millions.
Quote:
What will happen when these people lose their jobs in the next 10-20 years and are still stuck with 30-year loans which they would have most likely redrew from?
The government will employ them, like they do in Japan. The question is what use will they be put to? Hopefully rehabilitating the natural environment and improving society. But more likely nothing.
Quote:
It is estimated that 40% of jobs will be taken over by automation which is ~5 million jobs in Australia in just 15 years time.
Yes, there goes the "big Australia" plan.
Quote:
I would think it is actually quite scary when someone purchases a property at the peak of the market, especially when their occupation could be overtaken by AI in a decades time.
Socialism is the inevitability. "The People" will continue to be rewarded for their lack of contribution to society while we continue to be a democracy, because useless people vote for free money.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret. Ambrose Bierce
Remember in the 80's when we were all supposed to lose our jobs to computers and it didn't happen?
you're that old? No wonder your skills are no longer relevant, my condolences... no, I don't remember, wasn't born yet... r u sure computers are supposed to take over jobs in the 80s? or are you just making things up?
Sydneyite
22 Dec 2016, 07:39 PM
Programming a computer to play chess is NOT machine learning
Are you sure you're in the IT field?
if a computer program, utilising neural network to teach itself chess, is not machine learning, what is?
Yeah I have observed myself what has happened in the rustbelt with the manufacturing jobs gone and some towns practically abandoned.
My question then is will there be enough new jobs created to compensate. The participation rate is what is worrying about America.
Also keep in mind the rust belt suffered the heaviest during the financial crisis and the fact that there were no jobs in the area due to outsourcing in china amplified the problem.
Remember this automation of current jobs will occur on top of outsourcing to other more cost efficient nations.
I understand this will be a shared problem worldwide, but technology will also make creating houses cheaper through 3d printed houses and that will impact the market as build costs have become ridiculous particularly in Sydney.
Just how much unemployment can a city like Sydney and the other major capitals absorb before prices are affected.
Houses in Sydney are very, very cheap (and nasty most of them).. Land is expensive..
Houses in Sydney are very, very cheap (and nasty most of them).. Land is expensive..
+100 - I'm renting a 1.2M (market value) apartment with some of the cheapest fittings and fixtures I have seen. Faux benchtops, incorrectly installed toilets, garage door that constantly breaks down. Lifts constantly on the fritz.
The German made appliances are good though, and work, which is something of a miracle given they were installed by Australians. A million+ for a German made dishwasher and oven, inside some shitty poured concrete dogbox. It would be funny if I didn't live here.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret. Ambrose Bierce
No it's like saying the computer won't do us all out of a job because it can win a game of chess.
Remember in the 80's when we were all supposed to lose our jobs to computers and it didn't happen? Yes poopey sure, that's why microsoft and google employ 10's of thousands of people, because once the software is built there's nothing more to do. The abilities of sensors is the big limitation.
Self driving cars are only just becoming a thing because the computer's abilities to sense the world are slowly catching up. Even self driving cars aren't a huge step forward considering it just runs to a set of predicable rules. No machine has the ability to wing it like a person when there's a system failure.
Strength and weakness of it really.
I, for one, don't see all jobs disappearing through automation over the next 10 years... I do, however, see a hell of a lot, and even more over the next 15.
For any job that is repetitive, formulaic, and predictable, computers have an edge of speed and less fatigue/maintenance/OH&S/upkeep.
If you consider that a minority of the jobs that are being done these days, then fine... I suspect that while many jobs have complex aspects, the period of chaos/unpredictability in any of those jobs if a very minor part of that working day.... a human can manage the unpredictability for multiple automated tasks... that is what progress has already given us.
One person can oversee a sea of data being managed by a pool of computers, with the chaotic/unpredictable data elements being thrown into a "human" bin for them to manage... the same thing can happen with tasks.
Lets just look at driver less cars:
It is early days... however I can see them being given special treatment (possibly allowed into bus/taxi lanes) and having a major impact on how we work and live. You seem to both acknowledge and dismiss self driving cars at the same time... face it, even if 20% of the cars on the road become self driving, it will greatly alter our world, and the workforce. A pool of self driving cars that are running, say, 20 hours a day and have a well managed control system would make a hell of a dent in the taix/uber workforce, and, to be frank, would reduce the desire for many people to drive themselves.
Humans are better than robots when system failure happens... yup... That same argument was used during the industrial revolution to claim that factories should not introduce the heavy machines... however progress has seen that if it's faster, cheaper, and safer to go with a robot, it will be seriously considered, and progressed. The system failures still happen, but progress marches on.
The major weakness I see is systemwide vulnerabilities... efficiencies collapse when the brains or neural network is compromised, and they will be seriously tested with accidents and intentional sabotage. Wish I had perused an early interest into hacking systems when I was young... very good money in being a White hat these days, and you get to sleep nights not worrying about being arrested.
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