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Automation to cause 40% unemployment by 2030 leading to a housing crash?
Topic Started: 22 Dec 2016, 12:32 PM (3,623 Views)
Trollie
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popey
22 Dec 2016, 03:01 PM
You probably didn't know that AI had beaten the grandmasters in Chess & Go, the intelligent human that programmed the AI can't even beat it.
there're already programs that made more accurate diagnosis than specialist doctors (based on x-ray films)
And also, AI trading on the rise... the list goes on...
Poopey how many people did it take to program and build the machine that beat a chess grandmaster?
Edited by Trollie, 22 Dec 2016, 03:22 PM.
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popey
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Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:22 PM
Poopey how many people did it take to program and build the machine that beat a chess grandmaster?
if you have a brain, you'll know your question is irrelevant
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Trollie
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popey
22 Dec 2016, 03:27 PM
if you have a brain, you'll know your question is irrelevant
The number of people it takes to design and build the automation systems is irrelevant to it's impact on employment?

Let me guess, you don't want to answer because it spears the living shit out of your argument :re:
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Rastus2
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Sydneyite
22 Dec 2016, 02:54 PM
No way. Anyone who has worked with so called "Machine Learning" systems knows that this is still a fantasy. Machines can "remember" data / state, and modify their parameters / algorithm based on how data changes, but they cannot truly "learn". They can only give the appearance of learning / adaptation within a framework that still has to conceived of and programmed by a intelligent human.

fair comment.. however true "Learning" or, indeed, original thought is not what is required for most jobs.

I can't speak for everyone, but most people work in jobs that have been vastly improved thanks to the leverage that computers offer... as this leverage ramps up, the need for the workers reduces to a point where fewer and fewer people are required... it's just how it is.

It's the ability for not just Big data, but Wide data that is interesting...

Machine Learning... uses..

http://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/machine-learning.html

The heavily hyped, self-driving Google car? The essence of machine learning.
Online recommendation offers such as those from Amazon and Netflix? Machine learning applications for everyday life.
Knowing what customers are saying about you on Twitter? Machine learning combined with linguistic rule creation.
Fraud detection? One of the more obvious, important uses in our world today.
popey
22 Dec 2016, 03:01 PM
You probably didn't know that AI had beaten the grandmasters in Chess & Go, the intelligent human that programmed the AI can't even beat it.
there're already programs that made more accurate diagnosis than specialist doctors (based on x-ray films)
And also, AI trading on the rise... the list goes on...
actually, I am witnessing this now.. amazing time to be straddling Health and ICT.

Differential Diagnosis these days done by AI is as good as it gets, as long as a good history and baseline examination is correctly done (which is the same for human diagnosis),
Breast Screening diagnosis advances from AI are really amazing... to the point that I would expect over the next 5 years that the radiologist's will simply double check the AI initial diagnosis.
Edited by Rastus2, 22 Dec 2016, 03:47 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 03:32 PM

fair comment.. however true "Learning" or, indeed, original thought is not what is required for most jobs.

I can't speak for everyone, but most people work in jobs that have been vastly improved thanks to the leverage that computers offer... as this leverage ramps up, the need for the workers reduces to a point where fewer and fewer people are required... it's just how it is.

It's the ability for not just Big data, but Wide data that is interesting...

Machine Learning... uses..

http://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/machine-learning.html

The heavily hyped, self-driving Google car? The essence of machine learning.
Online recommendation offers such as those from Amazon and Netflix? Machine learning applications for everyday life.
Knowing what customers are saying about you on Twitter? Machine learning combined with linguistic rule creation.
Fraud detection? One of the more obvious, important uses in our world today.
The problem with automation is it's expensive and terrible at dealing with a dynamic environment.

In something like car assembly it's perfect, the environment is always the same and tightly controlled, each part it deals with it always the same. Try throw a robot a situation that's even slightly off from the norm and it folds very very quickly. You need to invest a lot of capital, and be prepared to a long pay back.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:31 PM
The number of people it takes to design and build the automation systems is irrelevant to it's impact on employment?

Let me guess, you don't want to answer because it spears the living shit out of your argument :re:

are you being serious ?

That's like saying the use of the hammer will never catch on because it took so many people to build them in the 1st place.

Even if it takes 100 people to design, program and build the 1st AI Chess engine that can beat the best human chess player in the world ... do you really think it will take another 100 people to build the 2nd one ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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popey
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Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:50 PM
The problem with automation is it's expensive and terrible at dealing with a dynamic environment.
how do a blue collar worker like yourself ever understand the use of machines & software in a dynamic environment?
That's why I stopped answering your questions... you don't even understand that once a software is built, it takes very few pple to maintain it, software only improve
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Rastus2
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Trollie
22 Dec 2016, 03:50 PM
The problem with automation is it's expensive and terrible at dealing with a dynamic environment.

In something like car assembly it's perfect, the environment is always the same and tightly controlled, each part it deals with it always the same. Try throw a robot a situation that's even slightly off from the norm and it folds very very quickly. You need to invest a lot of capital, and be prepared to a long pay back.

fair point.. however what makes you think that the workplace will continue to be such a dynamic environment without humans making it so ? Manufacturing and ports used to be dynamic, and has become more and more ordered as fewer humans were required.

https://www.singaporepsa.com/our-commitment/innovation

http://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-the-new-generation-of-robots-for-manufacturing-1433300884


Diagnostic equipment is mostly computerised these days.... Digital growth and fast computing has meant what took a week, now takes a min... when AI starts diagnosing images, we will have >95% instant differential diagnosis.

Capital investment is happening right now...

As for complex environments... well driverless cars are not some future dream... they will happen way before I retire.

Edited by Rastus2, 22 Dec 2016, 04:09 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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1 September 1873 48-Hour Week
Alison Painter

 1 September 1873 48-Hour Week

On 1 September 1873 450 employees and 50 employers came together at a banquet to celebrate the first 48 hour week. This had been achieved through the efforts of building trade workers who had appointed a committee to work on an agreement acceptable to the industry. The first firm approached was one of the largest contracting firms in the city and after negotiations the agreement was signed. At the dinner, held in Whites Rooms, Sir Henry Ayers gave an address in which he said in part:
The improvement in steam and water power ought to benefit the working classes and shorten their hours of toil
. Thus they would be able to improve their minds and raise themselves socially and increase their political power.

Labor began to be heard in parliament when in 1893 ten of its nominees were elected to the House of Assembly and it was then that the principle of an eight-hour day received legislative sanction. The celebration of this achievement is carried on with Labor Day holiday and parade. The 40-hour week was sanctioned in 1948.

http://www.sahistorians.org.au/175/chronology/september/1-september-1873-48-hour-week.shtml
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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BuildSydney
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Rastus2
22 Dec 2016, 03:51 PM

are you being serious ?

That's like saying the use of the hammer will never catch on because it took so many people to build them in the 1st place.

Even if it takes 100 people to design, program and build the 1st AI Chess engine that can beat the best human chess player in the world ... do you really think it will take another 100 people to build the 2nd one ?
Agreed. even if it took 100 people to build it, think about how many jobs to could replace worldwide (potentially millions like the self driving car).

I am in programming myself and have been working with the artificial intelligence libraries in Python which focus on machine learning and while I think its not quite their yet, we are making big strides and by late in the next decade you will see adoption of these technologies in Australia.

In terms of robots and AI, this is where we are at currently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY

That robot is a massive jump from just a few years ago. It is a real threat to jobs & there will come to a point where the average joe will be worried by technology.

Rio Tinto are already using autonomous vehicles and autonomous trains to transport their product across Australia, look here: http://www.mining.com/rio-saves-200m-a-year-using-robots-big-data/

As more companies use technology, the price will come down and SME will start using AI & that is when it will hit the Aussie housing market hard.

I think it is definitely something to consider if you are thinking about signing a 30 year loan.
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