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Automation to cause 40% unemployment by 2030 leading to a housing crash?
Topic Started: 22 Dec 2016, 12:32 PM (3,617 Views)
BuildSydney
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Hey everyone, seasons greetings! Christmas has come way too quickly once again.

I wanted your thoughts on technology making peoples occupations redundant over the next 15 years.

What will happen when these people lose their jobs in the next 10-20 years and are still stuck with 30-year loans which they would have most likely redrew from?

It is estimated that 40% of jobs will be taken over by automation which is ~5 million jobs in Australia in just 15 years time. I wrote about it in my blog https://www.buildsydney.com/technological-unemployment-cause-housing-crash/ But I wanted the communities thoughts on it.

I would think it is actually quite scary when someone purchases a property at the peak of the market, especially when their occupation could be overtaken by AI in a decades time.

What the forums consensus on this? thanks, I look forward to hearing some interesting responses.
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popey
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there're a few bulls in this forum, get ready to be verbal abused by 'em LOL
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Trojan
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Probably the same with all what happened to all the people employed in agriculture and manufacturing in Australia before they skills were replaced by machinery/overseas jobs. Existing people learn a new vocation whilst less new entrants into that area till equilibrium is reached.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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BuildSydney
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@popey TBH those are the exact responses I want, we are at a tipping point where capitalism will favour profits above all else and this will be the first time in history where the average person will really be hit hard by technology because they are coming for the jobs.

@Torjan I agree this occurred in the past however the difference this time is technology is on another level. Now machines can program themselves with machine learning meaning even creative jobs could be in danger. This will be very apparent over the next decade as the average computing power passes that of an average human brain.
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Rufus
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It will hurt many individuals, but on aggregate it won't make any difference.

In the same way that the rust belt in the USA is suffering, but other areas of the USA are booming.
In any change, some lose and some win.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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BuildSydney
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Rufus
22 Dec 2016, 01:04 PM
It will hurt many individuals, but on aggregate it won't make any difference.

In the same way that the rust belt in the USA is suffering, but other areas of the USA are booming.
In any change, some lose and some win.
Yeah I have observed myself what has happened in the rustbelt with the manufacturing jobs gone and some towns practically abandoned.

My question then is will there be enough new jobs created to compensate. The participation rate is what is worrying about America.

Also keep in mind the rust belt suffered the heaviest during the financial crisis and the fact that there were no jobs in the area due to outsourcing in china amplified the problem.

Remember this automation of current jobs will occur on top of outsourcing to other more cost efficient nations.

I understand this will be a shared problem worldwide, but technology will also make creating houses cheaper through 3d printed houses and that will impact the market as build costs have become ridiculous particularly in Sydney.

Just how much unemployment can a city like Sydney and the other major capitals absorb before prices are affected.
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popey
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BuildSydney
22 Dec 2016, 01:53 PM
My question then is will there be enough new jobs created to compensate.
I don't think the job compensation would be 1 to 1...
There'll be white collar jobs created, and blue collar jobs lost
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stinkbug
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popey
22 Dec 2016, 01:57 PM

There'll be white collar jobs created, and blue collar jobs lost
I agree with this. We've seen exactly this happen over the past few decades in Australia.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sydneyite
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BuildSydney
22 Dec 2016, 12:55 PM
Now machines can program themselves with machine learning meaning even creative jobs could be in danger
No way. Anyone who has worked with so called "Machine Learning" systems knows that this is still a fantasy. Machines can "remember" data / state, and modify their parameters / algorithm based on how data changes, but they cannot truly "learn". They can only give the appearance of learning / adaptation within a framework that still has to conceived of and programmed by a intelligent human.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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popey
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Sydneyite
22 Dec 2016, 02:54 PM
No way. Anyone who has worked with so called "Machine Learning" systems knows that this is still a fantasy. Machines can "remember" data / state, and modify their parameters / algorithm based on how data changes, but they cannot truly "learn". They can only give the appearance of learning / adaptation within a framework that still has to conceived of and programmed by a intelligent human.
You probably didn't know that AI had beaten the grandmasters in Chess & Go, the intelligent human that programmed the AI can't even beat it.
there're already programs that made more accurate diagnosis than specialist doctors (based on x-ray films)
And also, AI trading on the rise... the list goes on...
Edited by popey, 22 Dec 2016, 03:19 PM.
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