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12% real decline from peak for Perth house prices
Topic Started: 15 Dec 2016, 08:08 AM (8,468 Views)
Mallard
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Ex BP Golly
15 Dec 2016, 05:58 PM
How many mortgages have you got?

Is it up to 60% yet in NSW?
What about Sydney specifically?

It's be very high in Melbourne too.
Are you still confident of your prediction of a 70% fall in Sydney prices?
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Ex BP Golly
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Khaderbhai
16 Dec 2016, 06:25 PM
Your wage chart is adjusted for inflation, while your debt chart is nominal.

Our net debt to income ratio hasn't changed much for a decade...

Posted Image
Why choose the last 10 years during a global economic downturn Shoddy?

How about over 15 years?
How about over 35 years?



WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Ex BP Golly
16 Dec 2016, 06:48 PM
Why choose the last 10 years
I didn't choose it. Ten years just happens to the period over which the ratio has been fairly stable.

Could just as easily have been 5 years or 15 years. But in this case, it's about 10.

I have no ability to choose the duration that the ratio is relatively stable for.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rufus
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Ex BP Golly
16 Dec 2016, 06:06 PM
Those awesome wage rises, up 25% since 2002, while debt is up how much over the same time frame?
Exactly, wage growth has been modest and people aren't spending, so interest rates will be low for as far as the eye can see.
Glad we agree on that.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Jon Snow
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Rufus
16 Dec 2016, 06:04 PM
Rates don't accidentally raise themselves,
Credit spreads do though.
Quote:
 
the RBA controls them and raises only because they are concerned about high inflation.
Except the RBA doesn't control credit spreads.
Quote:
 
If rates are rising it means we are getting wages rises and spending confidently.
Or income is falling, unemployment is rising, and banks are adjusting for risk.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Rufus
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Jon Snow
16 Dec 2016, 09:23 PM
Credit spreads do though.

Except the RBA doesn't control credit spreads.

Or income is falling, unemployment is rising, and banks are adjusting for risk.
The spreads will only affect the term rates, and very few borrowers use fixed term products except when the fixed rates are low.

But I admire your faith.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Jon Snow
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Rufus
16 Dec 2016, 09:36 PM
The spreads will only affect the term rates,
I will pass that information on to our trading desk. They will need to reprice everything with basis risk given this new information.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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dachopper
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Ex BP Golly
15 Dec 2016, 09:37 PM
Don't worry chopper, when this chart reverts to mean, you'll be able to get you fhb loan and all your big dreams might look like becoming true.


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Haha, see the yellow rise at the end - That was me, I always buy at the peak !!!!!!!!!! :)

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Ex BP Golly
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Khaderbhai
16 Dec 2016, 06:25 PM
Your wage chart is adjusted for inflation, while your debt chart is nominal.

Our net debt to income ratio hasn't changed much for a decade...

Posted Image
You are looking plump enough to truss and pluck.
Yum yum.

Posted Image



WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Simon_S
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Jon Snow
16 Dec 2016, 09:47 PM
They will need to reprice everything with basis risk given this new information.
LOL....To a Property Investor there is no such thing as Risk.

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