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12% real decline from peak for Perth house prices
Topic Started: 15 Dec 2016, 08:08 AM (8,463 Views)
Terry
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skamy
20 Dec 2016, 04:09 PM
yes I mean exactly that - you are a typical keeping up with the Jones personality type - - you are too proud to buy on merit eg good geography, you are too afraid of what your mates might think to buy in suburbia - yet that is where you se the best growth longterm.

You need to put in perspective Roddy. Post-suburbia is the way of the future, particularly from an urban society perspective. Suburban planning and thinking has more in common with the post-WWII than 2016. Resistance to change is understandable and the power structures prefer a docile society that shuns critical thinking.
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Jon Snow
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skamy
20 Dec 2016, 04:09 PM
There have been two full scale stress test on the banks and there are reports from these showing that there is no trouble with stress in investment loans. All the leverage statistics show that on aggregate interest payments are at lower levels than there have been for a decade.

So, as I suspected, you are making shit up again.
Quote:
 
You need to sort the truth from the trash that comes from doomster cultists like ex-BP. He himself is loaded up with 3-4 properties all the while selling utter lies and bullcrap to people like yourself who have payed very dearly already for listening to him.
Unlike you, I personally know people who work in the credit risk departments in major Australian banks. Fascinating what they are seeing everyday in their jobs, as opposed to the fantasies that play out on your ceiling wall when it has been too long between doses.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Rastus2
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Sydneyite
20 Dec 2016, 04:52 PM
Well in 2007/2008 - when debt levels as a portion of GDP and household income, were only a tiny bit lower than today, you may recall the cash rate hit 7.5% and headline mortgage rates hit the circa 10% mark - so 5%+ more than today, and everything was OK then, yes? So why would it be different today of rates went up 2 or 3% over a few years?


Yup, that was what, 8 or 9 years ago... prices and thus, mortgages have risen since then quite a bit.
Sure, some (many) will manage... some, actually, many, would suffer financially greatly with a 2 or 3% rise over the next few years... In particular the many FHB's who seem to have such large mortgages thanks to the very low rates and very high prices making them seem easy to manage.

Posted Image

Edited by Rastus2, 20 Dec 2016, 08:36 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
20 Dec 2016, 08:34 PM


Yup, that was what, 8 or 9 years ago... prices and thus, mortgages have risen since then quite a bit.
Do you mean the bears were idiots for not listening to the bulls?
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Simon_S
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Rastus2
20 Dec 2016, 08:34 PM


Yup, that was what, 8 or 9 years ago... prices and thus, mortgages have risen since then quite a bit.
Sure, some (many) will manage... some, actually, many, would suffer financially greatly with a 2 or 3% rise over the next few years... In particular the many FHB's who seem to have such large mortgages thanks to the very low rates and very high prices making them seem easy to manage.

Posted Image
Is that chart saying that the average fixed home loan is $350K..........

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Sydneyite
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Rastus2
20 Dec 2016, 08:34 PM


Yup, that was what, 8 or 9 years ago... prices and thus, mortgages have risen since then quite a bit.
Sure, some (many) will manage... some, actually, many, would suffer financially greatly with a 2 or 3% rise over the next few years... In particular the many FHB's who seem to have such large mortgages thanks to the very low rates and very high prices making them seem easy to manage.

Posted Image
That's a nominal price chart though - as a proportion of GDP or household income, the ratio's are similar today to back then - maybe a tad higher. That's the measure that matters in terms of assessing the systemic risk - not absolute / nominal loan size values.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Simon_S
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Sydneyite
20 Dec 2016, 09:54 PM
That's a nominal price chart though - as a proportion of GDP or household income, the ratio's are similar today to back then - maybe a tad higher. That's the measure that matters in terms of assessing the systemic risk - not absolute / nominal loan size values.
Rate Rises anyone........
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stinkbug
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Simon_S
20 Dec 2016, 09:58 PM
Rate Rises anyone........
Eventually, but not for some time, and then not by much.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sydneyite
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Simon_S
20 Dec 2016, 09:58 PM
Rate Rises anyone........
Do try and keep up: http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=10014218&t=30043215 :re:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Trollie
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Sydneyite
20 Dec 2016, 10:39 PM
Rastus isn't a bear though, oh no not a bear.
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